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Old 10-28-2022, 02:24 PM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
The Tsar bomba was actually too big to use. There really aren’t any targets big enough to warrant it. A killer asteroid maybe, but nothing on Earth…
I’m reading they either can’t or won’t due to internal resistance of elite unit commanders & aerospace power brokers. All this based on little or no evidence. But If the Red army wants to hold ground seized thus far, it will need to control the sky at some point.
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Old 10-28-2022, 02:38 PM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
I’m reading they either can’t or won’t due to internal resistance of elite unit commanders & aerospace power brokers. All this based on little or no evidence.
Common sense is about all the evidence you need... the elites, power brokers, and military leaders of RU all enjoy power, wealth and privilege, the last thing on earth they want is nuclear war. Even if it were confined to UA, the global backlash would basically make all russians prisoners in an economically isolated country (you think it's bad now...). The top boys would be wanted war criminals, perhaps at risk of abduction or assassination (a la Eichmann, et al). And Putin cannot think he'd survive such an action.

Originally Posted by METO Guido
But If the Red army wants to hold ground seized thus far, it will need to control the sky at some point.
They could have easily figured that out simply by studying US military operations over the last 30+ years.
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Old 10-28-2022, 04:17 PM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
I’m reading they either can’t or won’t due to internal resistance of elite unit commanders & aerospace power brokers. All this based on little or no evidence. But If the Red army wants to hold ground seized thus far, it will need to control the sky at some point.
Language matters METO. It's not the Red Army
Many have some nostalgia for that army from WW2, but when we use the word Red to describe their current 'brand' it deflects from what the current Russian Govt actually is.
(hint: Russia is the exact opposite of what we think of when we use the term Red in a political sense....which was exactly Trotsky's intention with the founding of the long defunct Red Army)
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Old 10-28-2022, 06:20 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by Wingedbeast
That's delusional thinking. The Ukrainian military is losing so many troops they won't have the manpower by summer. They're banned women from leaving the country now.

Eventually Putin is going to have enough and take the gloves off and it will be total war. You're already seeing it now with the attacks on power and water.
Lol, if he could “take the gloves off” he would have. Do you look at more than one data source?
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Old 10-28-2022, 06:33 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
I’m reading they either can’t or won’t due to internal resistance of elite unit commanders & aerospace power brokers. All this based on little or no evidence. But If the Red army wants to hold ground seized thus far, it will need to control the sky at some point.
I personally don’t think they’ve moved past the saber rattling phase yet. But I’m not sure they need to. Did. You look at the graph of military aid to the Ukraine and notice that from the EU? The biggest economies in Europe are Germany, France, and Italy. Germany as of Aug 3 had committed (but not yet provided) $1.2 Billion in military aid (vs $25 Billion for the US). France had committed (but not yet provided) $0.25 Billion. Italy even less.

Now in fairness, most of the EU has neglected their militaries for so long they really have little TO provide except for leftover Cold War stuff, much of it poorly maintained.

Here is a list of current German equipment IDENTIFIED for transfer to the Ukraine, although much of it has yet to be transferred.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-...kraine-2054992

And even the relatively small amount France has given has caused domestic criticism because they have so shorted their own military procurement for the last 30 years that they really can’t afford to deplete their own resources.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...ons-deliveries

Nor is the non military aid from the EU, much of it as loans rather than actual grants, going much better:

https://www.politico.eu/article/not-...id-deal-delay/

An excerpt:

To date, Ukraine has received €4.2 billion in bilateral financial aid from EU countries compared with more than €10 billion from the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker tool.

The picture is even more skewed when looking at military aid, where EU countries’ commitments amount to €5.6 billion, compared with €25 billion from the U.S. The U.K. alone provided €2 billion in financial aid and €4 billion in military aid.

“From the perspective of other G7 members, not least, of course, the United States, it is very clear that Europe is hedging, or is, as usual, dragging its feet,” said Jacob Kierkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and at the Peterson Institute.

Last edited by Excargodog; 10-28-2022 at 07:06 PM.
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Old 10-28-2022, 07:11 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by MaxQ
Language matters METO. It's not the Red Army
Many have some nostalgia for that army from WW2, but when we use the word Red to describe their current 'brand' it deflects from what the current Russian Govt actually is.
(hint: Russia is the exact opposite of what we think of when we use the term Red in a political sense....which was exactly Trotsky's intention with the founding of the long defunct Red Army)
Was more referring to the crush Hungry/ Prague spring iteration. No disrespect intended. Quite the opposite. While the steady filling of enemy remains sacks with US hardware may yet prove decisive, I’ve nothing but sympathy for Russian gold star families. If this really was conceived a grand scale, live fire exercise, no denying an epic cluster now. Mostly agree with those seeing no hope for regime survival that doesn’t include air supremacy of the claimed frontier. As far as western intel community confidence goes, doesn’t seem that long ago Saddam had WMD slung under camel humps.
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Old 10-29-2022, 06:30 AM
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
Was more referring to the crush Hungry/ Prague spring iteration. No disrespect intended. Quite the opposite. While the steady filling of enemy remains sacks with US hardware may yet prove decisive, I’ve nothing but sympathy for Russian gold star families. If this really was conceived a grand scale, live fire exercise, no denying an epic cluster now. Mostly agree with those seeing no hope for regime survival that doesn’t include air supremacy of the claimed frontier. As far as western intel community confidence goes, doesn’t seem that long ago Saddam had WMD slung under camel humps.
Thanks METO.
I didn't take the term as disrespectful. Just that the name Red Army can give some legitimacy to Putin's propaganda of their invasion of Ukraine being conducted as an anti Fascist, or even anti Nazi, operation, when the reality is that Russia has evolved into a genuine modern day Fascist State. (run by the oligarchy, the Security Services and organized crime groups.....with Putin at the top of this nexus)
History has come around in a circle. Russian self-image can't adjust to themselves as Fascist, since so much of national pride and identity is derived from the War with the Nazis, so somehow they have to project any chosen enemy as being Fascist.
It creates a surreal level of reality that is misconstrued by many observers.
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Old 10-29-2022, 06:58 AM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by MaxQ
Thanks METO.
I didn't take the term as disrespectful. Just that the name Red Army can give some legitimacy to Putin's propaganda of their invasion of Ukraine being conducted as an anti Fascist, or even anti Nazi, operation, when the reality is that Russia has evolved into a genuine modern day Fascist State. (run by the oligarchy, the Security Services and organized crime groups.....with Putin at the top of this nexus)
History has come around in a circle. Russian self-image can't adjust to themselves as Fascist, since so much of national pride and identity is derived from the War with the Nazis, so somehow they have to project any chosen enemy as being Fascist.
It creates a surreal level of reality that is misconstrued by many observers.
I've been using the term Red Army with a sarcastic bent, referencing Vlad's ambitions (delusions?).
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Old 10-29-2022, 07:48 AM
  #119  
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Originally Posted by MaxQ
It creates a surreal level of reality that is misconstrued by many observers.
Won't argue that.
Napalm girl is a B&W image taken in '72 of a maimed 9 yo running out a friendly fire air strike. Whatever the grounds, US entanglement in foreign conflicts means supplemental death from above most of the time. Going to shut up now & wait for someone to explain how bringing down one more psychopathic marionette is adequate rationale for what we're diving into here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phan_Thi_Kim_Phuc
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Old 10-29-2022, 08:43 AM
  #120  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/dont...hief-warns-us/

Some excerpts:

In 2014, NATO allies agreed to “aim to move towards” spending 2 percent of their economic output on defense by 2024. With that deadline looming — and the recognition that military threats only seem to be rising — leaders are grappling with what comes next. Will they raise the target number? Will they word the spending goals differently?

“I expect that NATO allies will at the summit in Vilnius next year make a clear commitment to invest more in defense,” Stoltenberg said while noting that “it’s a bit too early to say” what precise language NATO allies will agree to.
Daniel Hamilton, a U.S. State Department official during the 1990s NATO enlargement wave, dubs it “greater European strategic responsibility.” This approach, added Hamilton, now a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University, would involve European allies providing, within 10 years, “half of the forces and capabilities” needed “for deterrence and collective defense against Russia.”

European allies, some experts argue, are simply too comfortable in their reliance on Washington.

“European members of NATO have over-promised and under-delivered for decades,” said Harvard University professor Stephen Walt, a leading international affairs scholar. Europeans, he said, “will not make a sustained effort to rebuild their own defense capabilities if they can count on the United States to rush to their aid at the first sign of trouble.”

Over the next decade, Walt added, “Europe should take primary responsibility for its own defense, while the United States focuses on Asia and shifts from being Europe’s ‘first responder’ to being its ‘ally of last resort.’”

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg pushed back against such a strict division of labor.

Decoupling North America from Europe “is not a good model, because that will reduce the strength, the credibility of the bond between North America and Europe.”




https://www.politico.eu/article/emma...y-ukraine-war/
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