Yabadaba

I agree. Look at what happened at Republic. Bedford treated his pilots like crap, stalled negotiations for 9+ years then had to file for bankruptcy because they couldn't staff the airline. Even after giving them a regional leading contract they can't get anyone to show up for class because the damage was already done. We are able to fill the classes now with much smaller numbers but if the growth actually happens they predict things are going to get interesting.

DrJekyll MrHyde

Centre for Aviation's speculation on a Frontier IPO.

Cliff notes: F9's on-time performance sh!t the bed and will have to improve before gaining pricing traction on the public market - F9's investors are better off to wait until early 2017.

Frontier Airlines' on-time performance hiccups in summer 2016; IPO still in abeyance | CAPA - Centre for Aviation

Aero1900

Good article. Also of interest is the idea that they won't IPO until ticket prices across the industry start to rise. And I don't think that'll happen until oil prices start a solid rise. OPEC is in the early stages of trying to cut production, but it's going to be a real hard sell, and there is significant doubt they will be able to come to an agreement to make production cuts.

Frontiers IPO may still be a ways off. They should have plenty of time to figure out how to run an airline on time

Aero1900

Very good point.

I sure hope our management team learned from that, but I doubt it. Reputation matters

Mugatu

The thing is though, Franke is a smart old man who has seen eeeeverything in the airline industry. He knows exactly what he's doing. He knew IPO wasn't going to happen this year around April/May. He started strong in Jan/Feb padding our schedule by an obscene amount, jumping out on time performance to number 4. (I made it a personal goal to be home by schedule block in.) But as soon as he knew the market wasn't going maximize his capitalization, he bailed. He knew Denver was going to melt down and he doesn't care. Biffle would be looking for another job right now if Denver was some sort of "surprise". Currently it's all maximizing Indigo's dividends until next year, or the year after when he sees fit.

Pilots? Warm bodies. Plenty of those at every street corner. What Repubic (that's for Bedford and IBT, not the pilots) did is something completely different. Those that appear smart, intelligent, some sort of charisma and a good resume for the legacies? Move along, you are not welcome here.

Aero1900

While I agree that Franke is probably smart and knows what he's doing, I question if he comprehends how quickly the market for pilots is changing. He probably all too fondly remembers the days of pilots needing 3000 hours of TPIC to get looked at by the regional. The pay to play and the thousands of pilots willing to accept any flying job no matter the compensation.

Of course, they can just drag out negotiations until it's immediately apparent that they can't fill classes, and then cave in. For them to offer raises a day before they have to, they are leaving money on the table. And for now, they are still easily filling classes.

AncientAliens

The pilot shortage isn't going to happen at our F9's level for a long time. I still have regional guys coming up to me in the terminal asking about a job. Even when I try to discourage them I hear, "well every airline's management is like yours" or "but it's a two year upgrade". If F9 has trouble filling classes they can just drop the requirements to FAA mins. Might cost them a little more for insurance but still cheaper than giving us a raise.

If anything Frontier likes it when people leave after a year or two. Second year pay is $28 an hour more than first year. They still save money even with training.

TommyBoI

So only 1 aircraft is going to be delivered in 2017? Has that always been the case?

ULLI

NO, 2 year upgrades here, just false promises. And we are making 80-100/per hour less than our peers!!!!!!!

Aero1900

That's incorrect. Which is strange because the rest of the data looks correct to me. 2017 is a big growth year. We have a net gain of 10 planes in '17