Cross Check

Aero1900, keep on drinking the cool aid friendo.

doz4dllrs

This is not news because f9 has been slow playing this rollout. Den is going to be a ghost of the hub it once was. All this bull**** about the crew base remaining at its current size where trips start in den and only return to finish the trip is just propaganda to ease the troops. They can't afford attrition (the training department is already maxed out) and the only thing keeping a a lot of guys from leaving to the legacies is their comfy denver base. When that's gone so are they. Commuting accross the country to some ****ty hub out east for 30% less pay will finally be the deciding factor for some guys on the fence deciding whether to leave to a legacy.

Look at NK's DTW hub pre Indigo and now.

Frisco55

+1
They will be losing new guys too! Not gonna commute for these wages!!

zoooropa

You have to consider the "net" result. Costs are higher at ORD when compared to MDW but the revenue is also higher so the net number is better at ORD. Denver has high costs and some of the lowest yields in the system. That is a bad combination.

It has been said 1000 times but F9 proved one thing in 2008, Denver can't support three airlines. SWA isn't leaving, UAL is done cutting, that leaves F9 to find another place for a large percentage of their ops.

Cross Check

Management is already complaining about things getting too competitive in Cleveland with Spirit moving into town.

Frontier management FAILS time and time again trying to find a market we can dominate. Well, maybe we have Trenton locked up for now since no other airline can come in there since there are no gates available.

It is NOT the employees fault our costs are high, it is managements fault costs are high.

The frontier rampers voted in a union so I would like to see how they are going to approach Siegles idea of cuts and outsourcing. Cuts right around the holidays, stay classy Siegle.

sulkair

So how does this play out? A slow drawdown over the next 18 to 36 months? I mean there isn't, at current, anywhere else to put all these pilots.

I don't want to be naive - I get what's happening - I just want to get my head around what this might look like going forward. Do I plan my life based on message board rumor - well I was going to say no - but IT ISN'T LIKE THE COMPANY EVER TELLS YOU SQUAT. And as for the latest internal emails - they are so politically framed with carefully hedged doublespeak I don't know what to believe.

Disclaimer - I'm not the sharpest tool either.

I appeal to the Zoo's and Bolo's of this board. Draft an outline, your best guess as to what the next 3 years looks like. Or 5

And to the smart @$$ess out there... Here, I'll save you the trouble and say it for you... "What'd you think would happen Sulk, you brainiac? You're going to Trenton boy!!!!" ...actually I think those were Bolo's exact words to me the day after I got hired so I'm without excuse LOL!

Barley

The next 4 years:

2015- They assure people Denver will be a strong part of the airline. ORD and TTN will continue growth. Other bases will open.

2016- More is taken from Denver. Continued growth in other point to point routes (like Spirit). Pilot negotiations start and go nowhere.

2017- IPO and/or merger. Denver shrunk to less than half it's present size.

2018- You wake up one morning and realize you should have stayed off the message boards and got a real education for a real profession. Oh, also fuel spikes and you're back to 2008 again.

Aero1900

Haha, Will Do! Its a good thing I never worked for SkyWest or I would have literally drown in the Koolaid from that place. (Virtual basing! --haha)

I'll admit that I am an optimistic person (probably why Frontier hired me.) Anyhow, I am optimistic that the Denver base will be around for a long time and it will remain the largest base. Will it shrink in the future? I would bet money on it. Will it be half the size it is now? I don't think it'll shrink that much.

The email we just got said that they plan to double the size of the Chicago base (from about 35 to 70 crews) and eventually look for an east coast base down the road. The Denver base currently has over 300 crews, so them expanding Chicago by 30-35 crews is not a huge change. I have been preaching on this forum for a year that we will get an east coast base. So i'm not sure just how drunk on Koolaid I am. (I live in Denver and want to stay here). Lets assume that Chicago grows by 35 crews, and 6 months from now they open a new base and make it the same size as Chicago. That means that there will be about 100 crews not based in Denver. Out of our current 350+ crews, its not really the end of Denver.

Here is a link to the current route map: http://www.flyfrontier.com/plan-book...%20110414.ashx

Looking at the route map you can see how badly the company needs a pilot base on the east coast. Its a no brainer, its going to happen. When it does it'll be a mixed bag. For the guys who live in Denver and don't want to leave, its not so good. On the other hand, an east coast base will likely shorten up the upgrade time substantially. There are lots of senior FOs who will not upgrade into any other domicile. That will allow much more junior FOs the ability to upgrade to captain on the east coast and chicago.

There is no doubt that Frontier is making Denver less of its focus... it used to be the only focus.. and that didn't make much money or sense. This new business model is not great for the pilots who live in Denver, but it probably makes more sense for the longterm viability of this airline than anything they have ever done before. The old denver based Frontier is going away, but its giving way to a much more profitable, stable airline.

The current plan is to hire around 100 pilots in 2015. If I'm right about Chiago growing and an east coast base to come, most new hires will probably not be based in Denver. I would imagine the new hire class that started yesterday will end up in Chicago, or at least will shortly.

sulkair

This is awesome

kspilot

The melancholy of the last few pages made me think of some lyrics, maybe you guys will find some answers in this artist's words.


But you deserve a headstart the way your life's goin',
So throw in the towel cause your life ain't sh!t,
No take that towel and hang yourself with it,
Life's short and hard like a body-building elf,
So save the planet and kill yourself,
If you're feeling down-and-out with what your life's all about,
Lift your head up and blow your brains out,

Here's a link Lift Your Head Up High - YouTube