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Old 06-21-2024, 12:00 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
Looks like AA stopped classes for the year. Attrition numbers will continue to improve for managements favor back to normalcy. Attrition at 5 so far this month.
This month will definitely be a low point in attrition, most likely. But I'd still expect the running average to sit in the 15-20 range per month. Maybe closer to 15 with WN/AA not hiring rest of '25.

UA is planning something like 300 in December. I still see 2025 a big year for hiring with UA likely playing catchup, meanwhile AA may be back on the trail and WN might re-open hiring in the back half of 25. Delta is doing 1100 per month til at least 2030, I imagine.

There's just no telling what the solutions to the MAX and GTF stuff will be. But it likely will be quick when it happens.

Originally Posted by SATpilot
Was in the July class(RTP guy), got the email saying put back in the pilot pool. Anyone have any info on possible Aug class?
We should gain some insight into August within 4 weeks of today. But it's gonna be a minute.
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Old 06-21-2024, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by AutoBrksMedium
UAL is full throttle on training filling July and August. Attrition will continue to be an issue.
With all due respect, no it won’t. When every airline was hiring full steam ahead, 10,000 per year, the worst we saw was an average of 35 per month. That barely started to put a little strain on us but was still manageable.
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Old 06-25-2024, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by LifetimeCFI
There's just no telling what the solutions to the MAX and GTF stuff will be. But it likely will be quick when it happens.



We should gain some insight into August within 4 weeks of today. But it's gonna be a minute.
The solution is already there. BA needs to get an aircraft certified and it won’t happen this year. They also need to be allowed to ramp up production and from what I read they aren’t close to being allowed to. As far as the GTF the fix is already there for the AD. 300 days to replace the parts. The end. That’s the fix. They may be able to speed it up to 100 days by ramping up some repair shops but that’s just a maybe for now. There is no quick fix for these issues.


I hear August class will probably be cancelled as well but captain upgrades should continue. Perhaps a couple of bids with +CA spots and -FO spots? We will find out in a couple of weeks for July.
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Old 06-25-2024, 01:24 PM
  #44  
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Now Augaust is cancelled as well? If we take these next 12 deliveries by the end of the year we will be even more spread thin... any new hires we hire from September onward we won't see hit the line until the start of 2025. We then start taking 42 airplanes for the next 3 years. We can barely get 50% ontime performance and a 96% completion factor. Could you imagine how bad it will get if we don't have anymore people coming through the door for next year?
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Old 06-25-2024, 01:35 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by redhot
Now Augaust is cancelled as well? If we take these next 12 deliveries by the end of the year we will be even more spread thin... any new hires we hire from September onward we won't see hit the line until the start of 2025. We then start taking 42 airplanes for the next 3 years. We can barely get 50% ontime performance and a 96% completion factor. Could you imagine how bad it will get if we don't have anymore people coming through the door for next year?
A good number of our P&W planes will be grounded next year due to the engine issue. Probably just planning accordingly so we don’t have to furlough as many off the bottom.
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Old 06-25-2024, 01:41 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by redhot
Now Augaust is cancelled as well? If we take these next 12 deliveries by the end of the year we will be even more spread thin... any new hires we hire from September onward we won't see hit the line until the start of 2025. We then start taking 42 airplanes for the next 3 years. We can barely get 50% ontime performance and a 96% completion factor. Could you imagine how bad it will get if we don't have anymore people coming through the door for next year?
As long as they keep upgrading I think they'll be alright. I keep thinking they're going to get behind, yet we do appear to be fat on the FO side. Go look at the FO reserves each day. Plenty whenever I look. Boeing really bailed them out, these guys always catching a break.
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Old 06-25-2024, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Planedrive
A good number of our P&W planes will be grounded next year due to the engine issue. Probably just planning accordingly so we don’t have to furlough as many off the bottom.
The company extended 10-20 of our leases for a couple more years back in January to mitigate any planes going down for engine issues. The planes are coming next year, and growth will occur...
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Old 06-25-2024, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Planedrive
A good number of our P&W planes will be grounded next year due to the engine issue. Probably just planning accordingly so we don’t have to furlough as many off the bottom.
From what I understand we won't have more than 3-4 planes out at a time as we rotate maintenance. Shouldn't be much of an impact.
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Old 06-25-2024, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by redhot
Now Augaust is cancelled as well? If we take these next 12 deliveries by the end of the year we will be even more spread thin... any new hires we hire from September onward we won't see hit the line until the start of 2025. We then start taking 42 airplanes for the next 3 years. We can barely get 50% ontime performance and a 96% completion factor. Could you imagine how bad it will get if we don't have anymore people coming through the door for next year?
Is it crew issues that are causing the problems though? I doubt it. I’m guessing If the operation was appropriately staffed on the ground side our metrics would be just slightly below the legacies. We would probably still see some metric slippage due to our high utilization making it more difficult to recover.
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Old 06-26-2024, 07:27 AM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
Is it crew issues that are causing the problems though? I doubt it. I’m guessing If the operation was appropriately staffed on the ground side our metrics would be just slightly below the legacies. We would probably still see some metric slippage due to our high utilization making it more difficult to recover.
Absolutely. Our operatioperational performance has nothing to do with the pilots. It has everything to do with being short staffed at every single point in the entire airline except the flight crews.

Gate agents, ticket agents, rampers, mechanics, etc, that plus running too lean on gates. I've arrived into ATL on time about 10 to 15 times this month and waited for a gate until well after our scheduled arrival time and then leave late. Wasn't my fault. But I don't have a gate to park at and not enough airport staff to manage it.

Until premium trips are routinely sitting untaken, we have zero flight crew staffing issues.

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