2024: the "Frontier will buy Spirit" theory
08-31-2024, 06:25 PM
#151
Almost there
Joined APC: Apr 2021
Posts: 1,283
People keep saying this, but I'm confused as to why this is so relevant now versus the prior merger attempt. The debt was always going to come due next year, wasn't it? Or did something change between the prior merger attempt and now? If their assets and debts were good enough for us to acquire in 2022, they're good enough to acquire now. Just at a discounted price. Or if that's incorrect I'm curious as to why.
08-31-2024, 07:36 PM
#152
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2021
Posts: 1,312
Posted in January
1. Alaska/HA was not stopped by the government, as I expected.
2. Spirit stock was $6.50 in January/Feb. It is now $3.
3. Barry (really....Franke, grand puppet master....) will likely let Spirit just die and go away. I presently do not see an attempt to outright buy Spirit or combine, merge, join, [insert wall street term] with Spirit. Price is King. It costs nothing to watch them sink and drown in the pond, versus the expenses associated with throwing them a life vest and pull them to shore.
my opinion
The ruling basically is the court saying we (the government) should not faciliate anything that hampers competition. Now, if the "free market" (Spirit fails and shuts down, due to no merger), and thus consumers are left with fewer choices to travel, so be it. The blood is not on the government's hands.
Regarding the "Frontier will buy Spirit theory" - that was proposed in July 2022, when Frontier stock price was $12. Frontier was going to use Frontier shares to buy Spirit. Imagine $12 each tokens to play games at Chuck E. Cheese. Now those tokens are worth $5 each. Can Barry pull it off, even if he wants to ?
"Spirit is on sale now" (Stock price down 60%). While true, the better decision will be Barry lets them bleed out, then magically appear with a Barry Biffle first aid kit. What is Spirit going to say? No?
So expect a lot of "we are not interested anymore" / "2024 we are looking at other focus areas" when Barry is asked. Make no mistake, I am sure Barry is considering buying/merging/etc with Spirit.
My opinion is Spirit, now with no dance partner, is at risk of bankruptcy and insolvency and possibly closing its doors altogether, sans another rescue attempt (which we know the DOJ is against anyway).
Alaska/Hawaiian - they will closely monitor the developments in this case and carefully craft their case, which will be successful. JetBlue and Spirit was the classroom for the Alaska/HA merger.
So the question for Frontier, which nobody knows the answer to, is: what is next?
Stay tuned
Regarding the "Frontier will buy Spirit theory" - that was proposed in July 2022, when Frontier stock price was $12. Frontier was going to use Frontier shares to buy Spirit. Imagine $12 each tokens to play games at Chuck E. Cheese. Now those tokens are worth $5 each. Can Barry pull it off, even if he wants to ?
"Spirit is on sale now" (Stock price down 60%). While true, the better decision will be Barry lets them bleed out, then magically appear with a Barry Biffle first aid kit. What is Spirit going to say? No?
So expect a lot of "we are not interested anymore" / "2024 we are looking at other focus areas" when Barry is asked. Make no mistake, I am sure Barry is considering buying/merging/etc with Spirit.
My opinion is Spirit, now with no dance partner, is at risk of bankruptcy and insolvency and possibly closing its doors altogether, sans another rescue attempt (which we know the DOJ is against anyway).
Alaska/Hawaiian - they will closely monitor the developments in this case and carefully craft their case, which will be successful. JetBlue and Spirit was the classroom for the Alaska/HA merger.
So the question for Frontier, which nobody knows the answer to, is: what is next?
Stay tuned
2. Spirit stock was $6.50 in January/Feb. It is now $3.
3. Barry (really....Franke, grand puppet master....) will likely let Spirit just die and go away. I presently do not see an attempt to outright buy Spirit or combine, merge, join, [insert wall street term] with Spirit. Price is King. It costs nothing to watch them sink and drown in the pond, versus the expenses associated with throwing them a life vest and pull them to shore.
my opinion
09-01-2024, 02:07 AM
#153
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,551
People keep saying this, but I'm confused as to why this is so relevant now versus the prior merger attempt. The debt was always going to come due next year, wasn't it? Or did something change between the prior merger attempt and now? If their assets and debts were good enough for us to acquire in 2022, they're good enough to acquire now. Just at a discounted price. Or if that's incorrect I'm curious as to why.
09-01-2024, 09:20 AM
#154
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 165
so much has changed since the first frontier offer. The expectation was that everyone would be making money by now and this was also pre PW issues. The expectation was also that with everyone making money after the merger it would be easy to refinance the debt. Now neither JB or F9 are really in a great position themselves and taking on huge debt due in 2026 without a guarantee of refinancing is crazy. Not to mention the 50 downed aircraft you have to keep making payments on while they sit on the ground.
09-01-2024, 06:08 PM
#157
On Reserve
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 22
09-02-2024, 07:45 AM
#160
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: A319/320; CA
Posts: 55
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