Originally Posted by HSCompressor

Yup. RLA was designed to keep the Railroads moving.

Originally Posted by Dragonslayer69

Joining a 15,000 pilot seniority list at the bottom is not great idea at this time IMO.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

I could not disagree with you more. UA has 500-600+ mandatory retirements annually for the next DECADE. That's over 6,000 pilots in the next 10 years, not including any growth, UA is hiring 200+ monthly right now. I don't believe the propaganda about a 28,000 pilot airline for one second, but I'd absolutely believe 20,000. How would you like to be around 50% ten years from now? When the pay rate will easily to be north of $400/hour for a 320 Captain. Probably closer to $500/hour.

All the legacies are in a similar boat. AA is more like 7000+ mandatory retirements in the same timeframe. Some folks, no doubt, have very legitimate reasons to stay where they are, and I wouldn't judge anyone's decision. But If you are young-ish and have the opportunity, joining a 15,000, or 17,000 pilot seniority list is about the smartest thing you can do. IMO.

Originally Posted by Dragonslayer69

Things can turn on a dime. I chose to stay and not take the job at UAL. I’m older and even one year of seniority is not something I personally want to give up. F9 will exist in one form or another until I retire. F9 will have something resembling a new contract before I retire and god willing I will upgrade before I retire.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

That's your choice, and as I said I will not judge you for it. Truly, I mean that. I have no doubt that was a tough decision, and you considered your particulars thoughtfully.

However, projecting that choice onto others, especially those who would give up "even one year of seniority" is really bad advice for the vast, vast majority of those considering a move, IMO. 5 months of hiring at a legacy is 1000+ numbers right now. Granted that will slow down slightly in the next year, but will still continue at over 100 pilots per month at all of them indefinitely. Frankly, there will never again be a better time than now to join a "15,000 pilot seniority list at the bottom". Especially if you are only giving up a year seniority to do it. But that's me.

Originally Posted by Dragonslayer69

I think I was pretty clear that it was my decision and not advising others to follow my lead.

Originally Posted by dracir1

Eh, we'll all probably fly for UA in about 2-3 years...SK throwin shade at us but then gives us flight benefits. They have an aging fleet of 73s and 320/1s and will need to go into serious debt to replace (will surpass AA by far). So, to replace all the retirements as well as cut down on training costs AND acquire new planes at rock bottom prices, just annex F9. Offer Indigo $3.5 to 4B. Eliminate us as competition in Den and add competition to all the AA bases.

Originally Posted by dracir1

Eh, we'll all probably fly for UA in about 2-3 years...SK throwin shade at us but then gives us flight benefits. They have an aging fleet of 73s and 320/1s and will need to go into serious debt to replace (will surpass AA by far). So, to replace all the retirements as well as cut down on training costs AND acquire new planes at rock bottom prices, just annex F9. Offer Indigo $3.5 to 4B. Eliminate us as competition in Den and add competition to all the AA bases.

Originally Posted by AntiCompanyMan

I don’t think there is any reason for United to buy Frontier.

Airplanes? They’ve got hundreds on order, the majority of which are for growth. United is in the best position among the legacies with regard to fleet rejuvenation and a healthy order book. They don’t need indigo’s 320s.

Pilots? United classes are still full, and it’s hard to imagine them “running out.” Why go through an expensive merger when there’s been no issue with hiring F9 pilots as it is.

I guess the question becomes, how long can the airline staff the growth. Especially when it comes to qualified pilots to upgrade.

Eliminate competition? F9 seems to be doing that to itself.

I doubt the cost and complexity of a merger outweighs any of these benefits, which are themselves minimal. The new standby benefits have no relevance to whether a United merger is imminent. A lot of the speculation on mergers looks a lot like wishful thinking and “copium” for the present state of F9.

Originally Posted by ULLI

Everything you said i think is on point, except the elimination of competition. Last i checked frontier is growing, especially when it comes to seats available.