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Old 03-29-2023, 02:28 PM
  #251  
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Originally Posted by JoeFever1
I assume so as well. If you are under 15 years with more than 10 years left and can take the pay hit I would 100% do the same. Only caveat is if you believe there will be a furlough in the next 5 years. I think there will be but just a guess based on history and the direction our economy is going.
This is math I haven’t seen yet….the less than 15 with more than 10. This is a MASSIVE portion of our seniority list.
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Old 03-29-2023, 04:04 PM
  #252  
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Originally Posted by JoeFever1
I assume so as well. If you are under 15 years with more than 10 years left and can take the pay hit I would 100% do the same. Only caveat is if you believe there will be a furlough in the next 5 years. I think there will be but just a guess based on history and the direction our economy is going.
there is only one problem with the “history” part. We haven’t seen hiring like this in decades. I’m not even sure the rapid expansion of the airlines at the start of the jet age seen such a brisk hiring environment so this isn’t a comparable time. Could there be a major economic crash and a furlough. Sure, but it would probably be short lived. The shape of the economy right now, in reality the airlines should be in a down turn “ (I think that is what franke and Barry are/were gambling on) but they aren’t. Bookings and pax loads are going strong. If you have more then 15 years left and you don’t really want to spend it at a ulcc. It’s time to bail. Get the seniority now.
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Old 03-29-2023, 04:31 PM
  #253  
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We do not reach the peak of attrition retirements for another 3 years. Then it’s 5 more years of what we have today. I ask you- what is the logical conclusion for Frontier, Allegiant, Avelo, Breeze and possibly even Southwest (who wants to hire over 2000 this year)?
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Old 03-29-2023, 04:50 PM
  #254  
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Originally Posted by tom11011
We do not reach the peak of attrition retirements for another 3 years. Then it’s 5 more years of what we have today. I ask you- what is the logical conclusion for Frontier, Allegiant, Avelo, Breeze and possibly even Southwest (who wants to hire over 2000 this year)?
Rhetorical or no?
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Old 03-29-2023, 04:52 PM
  #255  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
Rhetorical or no?
Everyone has an opinion and I don’t think anyone can reliably predict much beyond a year, but some are going out of business, some are going to merge, some are going to merge and then go out of business.
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Old 03-29-2023, 05:06 PM
  #256  
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Originally Posted by tom11011
Everyone has an opinion and I don’t think anyone can reliably predict much beyond a year, but some are going out of business, some are going to merge, some are going to merge and then go out of business.
I’m guessing you are implying that the LCCs are going to struggle and not make it based on hiring and retention. I would worry about regionals long before any Major. Might be important to note we actually had to slow down hiring for the time being. Turns out there’s still enough pilots to go around.
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Old 03-29-2023, 05:19 PM
  #257  
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Dramatic much? Although there may be short-term struggles to staff, don’t forget that we haven’t really even begun to see any airline really get creative to attract candidates. From potential home-basing schemes, unlimited commuter hotels, straight-up, fully-paid ab-initio programs, better pay rates (better even than the legacies) - we haven’t even seen the start of what could be coming if some of these airlines truly start to get desperate.
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Old 03-29-2023, 07:21 PM
  #258  
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Originally Posted by PositiveRate20
This is math I haven’t seen yet….the less than 15 with more than 10. This is a MASSIVE portion of our seniority list.
I specifically was referring to those living in DEN. But the same could be said for anyone commuting from a legacy base to a f9 base.
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Old 03-29-2023, 07:24 PM
  #259  
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Originally Posted by turbojet28
Dramatic much? Although there may be short-term struggles to staff, don’t forget that we haven’t really even begun to see any airline really get creative to attract candidates. From potential home-basing schemes, unlimited commuter hotels, straight-up, fully-paid ab-initio programs, better pay rates (better even than the legacies) - we haven’t even seen the start of what could be coming if some of these airlines truly start to get desperate.
Agreed. I would just add that the pipeline of new pilots is still running strong. ATP is cranking out pilots as fast as they can, all the university flight programs are full and the hundreds of mom and pop flight schools around the country are doing the same. New pilots are being created constantly
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Old 03-30-2023, 06:05 AM
  #260  
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Originally Posted by Aero1900
Agreed. I would just add that the pipeline of new pilots is still running strong. ATP is cranking out pilots as fast as they can, all the university flight programs are full and the hundreds of mom and pop flight schools around the country are doing the same. New pilots are being created constantly
That isn’t exactly working in the Pilot groups favor…..but I digress….
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