Macjet

That's a good question and I don't know the answer.

In what is the optimism rooted in of the belief that the two lowest compensated major airlines will become anything more than the largest lowest compensated airline?

emersonbiguns

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bill Franke builds airlines. He's not in the business of destroying them, a la Icahn/Lorenzo. To build the super ULCC that he envisions he'll need pilots.

Do I think we'll get legacy or legacy+? No. But it's going to have to be a hell of a lot better than current to slow the revolving door.

Andy Dufresne

I think the pilot group will be in great shape to get a mainline contract - at the very least on the level of Jet Blue. If the company is going to use the size of the airline as a feather in their cap, compensating their pilots to reflect that should be the absolute floor of negotiations.

Macjet

I don't think he's out to destroy anything so we're in agreement there. I just don't understand the optimism. Past performance is not a good predictor of future behavior but in humans it's a good baseline for assumptions. So, what happened last time? F9 was the last airline to sign a contract in the previous cycle. How much Christmas candy did Franke hand out? Your peer, and new dance card partner, was highly compromised with an MEC that had a federal TRO hanging around its neck, a wholly incompetent negotiating committee, and an apathetic pilot group that could't muster 100 bodies to a picket. And Franke granted you a contract that was NK -1%. That's really not something to be proud of. This time around we have the same Franke, 2/3 of the NK negotiating committee, and our MEC is in the gold old boy mold of the previous. Will the F9 side of that JCBA equation pull a Hail Mary?


NK is shedding pilots at an unsustainable rate. We're hiring 70 to keep 20 and upgrading 10 each month. Guys are leaving before they even finish their type with our instructor core having events cancelled because even the new hires are leaving. NK hasn't offered more money. They haven't approached our MEC. They have lied about approaching our MEC though. They're doing nothing but lowering the bar for new entry pilots. All ATP's to NK FO in 18 months or less is our new plan. Word is we're favoring 'old guys' now who are less likely to pursue elsewhere as well. I'm not seeing the desire from NK to retain pilots with higher compensation. Will Franke change that? I can't find anyone here at NK that worked for him with a single positive thing to say. I think we'll see 'flows' with visas before we see an offer with higher compensation. I really hope I'm wrong.


So, I'll ask again. What's the basis for believing that we'll be anything other than the largest lowest compensated airline? It isn't a rhetorical question. If there's some indicators that I'm missing I open to hear them.

Macjet

JetBlue? Your 'floor' is JetBlue's now 4 year old contract? We're absolutely Brandon'ed if guys like you are in the majority. It would be an insult and a no vote to have such slid across the table.

Andy Dufresne

Zero chance the union or pilot group should entertain it, IMO. That is an absolute worst case, which is still significantly better than the current one. My apologies if I didn’t make that clear. I was just pointing out that Jet Blue’s current contract would be a substantial pay increase for pilots across the board.

And you’re right. They’re about to be due a new one, which will almost certainly include more pay bumps.

emersonbiguns

Sweet 8.2 pound baby Jesus, don't you get that the pilot supply and demand dynamic is 180 degrees from then? (...and you can't run an airline without pilots?)

Fah2

The hyperbole is always entertaining.

The union email has year to date attrition at less than 3%

We are net positive for total pilots. We are net positive for captains. The majority of each new hire class is making it to the line. Is it sustainable forever, of course not. Is it catastrophic and cataclysmic with impending doom for the company, also no.

I’m a c-suite suit getting a flight ops briefing:

So, we lost a few pilots these last couple months…

“Yes, but the majority are FOs with the company a short time”

I see, have we had any problems with recruitment?

“Actually no, are MTC events are always full and we have lots of qualified applicants”

Interesting, any issues with training?

“Well occasionally someone leaves during training and we have to shuffle around a bit, but it’s also relieved a bit of burden on sim/instructors/LCA so we absorbed it”

How about staffing the current fleet?

“Well we slowed upgrades a bit to make sure we didn’t run too lean on FOs, but captain grids are green and FOs are *****s who love premium time because we work them for cheap.”

So… no need to park any planes or cancel routes?

“No, everything is covered and we are just pulling pages off the calendar until our next system meltdown that is a confluence of unrelated events”

Ah ha… let me just check over on APC and see what the expert have to say-

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD, WE NEED TO RUN TO THE UNION IMMEDIATELY AND BEG THEM TO ACCEPT AN MOU THAT ALLOWS US TO OFFER A PREMIUM OR INCENTIVE. THAT IS THE ONLY SOLUTION, WE ARE GOING DOWN IN FLAMES! CALL FRANKE AND TELL THAT OLD BAG OF BONES TO BRING HIS CHECKBOOK AND GET ME ALPA ON THE PHONE!!

Aviatormar

Quite possibly the best post I've ever read on APC.... congrats my friend. That's 1000000% what happens. I love the mini-sun gods who think we matter to the C suite...

Jetspeed

Post of the year FahQ2.