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Old 01-20-2024, 12:47 PM
  #4391  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
Who told you this in HQ?

Ive heard otherwise from Check airmen and Management. In the end it doesn’t really matter. All that matters is when you class date really comes and what our attrition really ends up being.

Again, we are now at 15.4 pilots per plane. Open time is a ghost town and has been for a while. So Ive revised the number of pilots needed to only 15 per plane and we still would need to hire about 35 per month to cover the fleet. That assumes the 30% attrition rate continues and no aircraft groundings. Either one of those can change the equation overnight.

Also, as plane joe mentions. We haven’t moved to day trips yet. It takes 3-6 months for a complete schedule change. It won’t really start happening until spring. So how can they know how much people love it?
Apparently one of the mentors told a cadet, among other things, that 25 aircraft were going to be affected by the inspections. I can't really confirm that.
The bonus is gone, though the cadets still get the stipend and paid ATP. I can confirm that, BL sent a video to the pool pilots that was forwarded to me. All pre-employement bonuses are gone effective immediately.
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Old 01-20-2024, 12:56 PM
  #4392  
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Originally Posted by Warhawker
Apparently one of the mentors told a cadet, among other things, that 25 aircraft were going to be affected by the inspections. I can't really confirm that.
The bonus is gone, though the cadets still get the stipend and paid ATP. I can confirm that, BL sent a video to the pool pilots that was forwarded to me. All pre-employement bonuses are gone effective immediately.

Considering we only have 25 321 P&W aircraft today the mentor is almost surely wrong.

But the bonus being gone. Now that’s new news and a surprise if true.

Attrition looking backwards by my count has been

Jan-13
22
28
35
32
Aug -45

Definitely a downward trend there but we shall see if it sticks.
Stayontarget is offline  
Old 01-20-2024, 01:02 PM
  #4393  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
Considering we only have 25 321 P&W aircraft today the mentor is almost surely wrong.

But the bonus being gone. Now that’s new news and a surprise if true.

Attrition looking backwards by my count has been

Jan-13
22
28
35
32
Aug -45

Definitely a downward trend there but we shall see if it sticks.
Maybe all of the current 321s have to be inspected, but new delieveries won’t? I thought since they were all post-2021 deliveries, they wouldn’t have to be inspected anyways. Who knows.
lph1235 is offline  
Old 01-20-2024, 01:23 PM
  #4394  
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Originally Posted by lph1235
Maybe all of the current 321s have to be inspected, but new delieveries won’t? I thought since they were all post-2021 deliveries, they wouldn’t have to be inspected anyways. Who knows.
They have hinted there still may be inspections on the horizon in earnings calls but nothing is official yet. That’s a large gap from the initial scope of inspections until we took our first airplane…much less now. I have heard everything within the last 6 months should be good as they probably knew about the problem and corrected it before installing it on even more engines. If we consider that timeline we are looking at 13 airplanes that could still be affected. With that amount you could fairly easily create an engine shell game and deliveries would cover the pain quickly.
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Old 01-20-2024, 01:27 PM
  #4395  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget
They have hinted there still may be inspections on the horizon in earnings calls but nothing is official yet. That’s a large gap from the initial scope of inspections until we took our first airplane…much less now. I have heard everything within the last 6 months should be good as they probably knew about the problem and corrected it before installing it on even more engines. If we consider that timeline we are looking at 13 airplanes that could still be affected. With that amount you could fairly easily create an engine shell game and deliveries would cover the pain quickly.
Good info, thanks!
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Old 01-20-2024, 01:36 PM
  #4396  
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Originally Posted by lph1235
Maybe all of the current 321s have to be inspected, but new delieveries won’t? I thought since they were all post-2021 deliveries, they wouldn’t have to be inspected anyways. Who knows.
Don't see any news regarding post Q3 '21 production problems.

If someone knew of some issues that affected post '21 engines, it hasn't been publicly announced and I hope they bought lots of puts and covered their tracks.
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Old 01-20-2024, 01:41 PM
  #4397  
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Originally Posted by Stayontarget

But the bonus being gone. Now that’s new news and a surprise if true.
Not a total shock. Everyone has been learning to fly in the last couple years. There is a ton of people getting to the 1500 h mark. Coupled with reduced hiring in about everyone except UA and AA, it's not surprising they aren't having problems getting candidates.
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Old 01-20-2024, 04:30 PM
  #4398  
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Not sure where the mentor got the idea of 25 planes?

To my knowledge we have no issues with ours but there will be some possible inspections (per CD).

The cadets I know/newhires are still currently getting the bonus.

We are GAINING 23 new planes in 2024.

Probably still losing ~20-30 a month.

Classes will be resuming 40+ here in March.

The F9 Recruitment page posted a new class with like 25 in it a few days ago... so I am not sure how old that is?

We will never have problems getting applicants. We will run into problems the regionals are where you have mandatory upgrades and can't staff the CA side for the life of the place.

That being said, I am not sure why the union isn't pushing for advertisements and other things that warn Candidates to not apply here, not be cadets, etc, etc.
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Old 01-20-2024, 05:30 PM
  #4399  
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Originally Posted by spooldup
Not sure where the mentor got the idea of 25 planes?

To my knowledge we have no issues with ours but there will be some possible inspections (per CD).

The cadets I know/newhires are still currently getting the bonus.

We are GAINING 23 new planes in 2024.

Probably still losing ~20-30 a month.

Classes will be resuming 40+ here in March.

The F9 Recruitment page posted a new class with like 25 in it a few days ago... so I am not sure how old that is?

We will never have problems getting applicants. We will run into problems the regionals are where you have mandatory upgrades and can't staff the CA side for the life of the place.

That being said, I am not sure why the union isn't pushing for advertisements and other things that warn Candidates to not apply here, not be cadets, etc, etc.
Class MIGHT resume in March. I am telling you, they are looking at pulling the plug on the March class. Hiring folks told me straight to my face at HQ that this was a possibility.

Otherwise..

They sent a video update stating that:
1. Cadet, RTP, and off the street FO apps were closed UFN. Their hiring pool is backlogged to hell and back so anyone that is without a CJO right now you are unable to apply.
2. New hire bonus is gone, unless you've already signed an offer letter that has the bonus offer in writing. I for example have one I signed that has the offer. They could easily re-offer me a new class date with no bonus, but pretty soon there will flat out be no bonuses offered period.

I consider myself extremely fortunate to be in the hiring pool already. Feel bad for the dudes I watched get turned away. I might have seen the last two CJO recipients for months get their CJOs, so that was cool.

I don't see this as a bad sign for the company but I do see it as a sign things really are slowing down.
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Old 01-20-2024, 05:34 PM
  #4400  
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Originally Posted by LifetimeCFI
Class MIGHT resume in March. I am telling you, they are looking at pulling the plug on the March class. Hiring folks told me straight to my face at HQ that this was a possibility.

Otherwise..

They sent a video update stating that:
1. Cadet, RTP, and off the street FO apps were closed UFN. Their hiring pool is backlogged to hell and back so anyone that is without a CJO right now you are unable to apply.
2. New hire bonus is gone, unless you've already signed an offer letter that has the bonus offer in writing. I for example have one I signed that has the offer. They could easily re-offer me a new class date with no bonus, but pretty soon there will flat out be no bonuses offered period.

I consider myself extremely fortunate to be in the hiring pool already. Feel bad for the dudes I watched get turned away. I might have seen the last two CJO recipients for months get their CJOs, so that was cool.

I don't see this as a bad sign for the company but I do see it as a sign things really are slowing down.
The off the street FO app is still open.
lph1235 is offline  
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