kingairfun

Anyone believe or not believe the forecast.....


I'd start a poll, but don't know how

Auger In

For those of us on the outside looking in, what was the forecast you were referring to?

kingairfun

The only forecast that matters to a furloughee....

Kritchlow

I truly enjoy reading your posts, but usually you need to be a NJ insider to know what you are talking about. NJ may be the largest player, but most people here don't seem to be from NJ.

I'm not trying to be rude in any way, but I'm just trying to understand some of your posts.

Auger In

Your response was not only nebulous but frankly, obnoxious. All I asked was a simple, direct question. The answer you provided was meaningless. If you prefer not to provide an informative answer then just keep quiet. Now, would anyone like to share what the forecast was?

Sailaway

Recalls 1Q13 according to the management brief at recurrent.

kingairfun

I think it's MacGee who's telling classes this? (if your still there maybe you know?)..He's the same retard that said "as long as the stock market doesn't drop below 7,000 we're good!!"

He has great foresight and has a real pulse on the company. And is in no way a condescending person I am not even sure what he does at NJA besides ask "am I communicating?"

frmrdashtrash

He sucks up to the owners and occupies office space.

kingairfun

I just read a blog from aviatioweek (Feb 2011)(it's a pay subscription so I only got a chance to read the first paragraph or so)....http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs...entId=blogDest

But it is an interview or reference to Sokol saying that the company is basically right sized ....(meaning after the 47 a/c they sold in 2010 and the 40 planed for 2011) By my rough analysis that will leave NJA with around 410-420 a/c by years end...with staffing around 6.1 pilots per a/c... (and with the busier years forecast to come ahead they may need more pilots/ac??)

And that is why they have deliveries set for a 2012 start date. Because that is when they will anticipate needing new a/c. It also does sort of align with they're recall anticipation date... Although how they are going to entice new owners this year is a hurdle without nice new a/c to sell. UNLESS they sell a used share with a nice option for ownership in a new Global 5000 next year.

Along with that I read that the Phenom orders (atleast the 50 firm) were slated to start in 2013 and continue through 2015..... I don't know how I missed the delivery schedule before, but that is 2 per month....don't know if they are going to be direct replacements for the Ultra/Encore, and 400. But it would appear so. I was under the impression that the orders were schedules to take longer to fufill. So that is somewhat good news also. (NJE is planning on getting 20% of these, so maybe 10 out of 50??)http://www.aopa.org/nbaa/2010/101019netjets.html


I don't know, but everytime I research past articles and deliveries etc... everything does seem to align. With some of what we've been seeing with the business plan on the furloughs perspective. Still doesn't mean they're playing nice with current Union Leadership. But maybe Sokol just had an axe to grind with the way he ended up getting portayed in the media before his demise?? And current management is just following that protocol??

I belive about 30% of what the company says and maybe 60% of what the union says at this point.

kingairfun

Heres another spin on it all......

• In the beginning NJA had roughly 500 a/c and 3000 pilots....6 pilots per a/c

• They furlough 500 without initially disposing of a/c....NJA gets alot closer to the minimum staffing. But business is bad so they don't need to worry how much staffing dwindles.

• BUT,,, knowing they plan on getting rid of a bunch of a/c over 2 years..........By the end of 2011... 400+/- a/c and 2500 pilots....6 pilot per a/c......

By the end of 2012 they start taking on Globals and Phenoms... Re-increasing the fleet again over a 3-4 year period....back to a more robust, closer to before, total... Also there has been talk (newspaper clippings) about Dassaults order that was "adjusted". Could it also be possible that can factor in.....PLUS a mid size order announcement supposedly coming later this year.....

To keep the staffing at approximately 6 pilots per a/c they need to start recalls to correspond to an increase in a/c. Maybe not right away, but within a reasonable amount of time.......

This all assumes a/c really start showing up.. (IF THEY DON"T, NJA WILL BE DOOMED WITH 10 YEAR OLD A/C TO SELL TO OWNERS) There has been speculation that NJA has orders but doesn't have to take them. True, but then the company basically dies a slow death.

As long as the economy continues to improve and sales do reasonably well, eventually the fleet will be increasing again.

I can see their timeline for recalls as being somewhat accurate, given the little we know about how business is going.