FedEx Hiring
12-20-2014, 01:21 PM
#143
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 296
You've probably done it, but I'd really look into the Legacy airlines. I'm at FX. Lots of big hiring at the majors compared to FX. I haven't heard much about hiring but there's probably some info here on an earlier post. Good luck with wherever you go.
12-20-2014, 02:05 PM
#144
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 63
DAL is hiring over 100/month for the foreseeable future. Guys are holding lines or weekend off reserve within 2-3 months of completing OE. QOL is skyrocketing for the new hires. Even though FedEx was always my lifelong career goal for me, the QOL I have now as a DAL new hire is nothing short of amazing. I'm glad I didn't pass up the opportunity at DAL waiting on FedEx to call. If you are lucky enough to get hired at FedEx you will have a fantastic career with a fantastic company but there are other options. " Follow your dreams, you can reach your goals, I'm living proof - Beefcake!"
12-20-2014, 02:37 PM
#145
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 2,889
I have had a lot of conversations with friends and clients over the last two years about this very thing. I am NOT bashing my company, and I (generally) love my job. That said, getting hired into this operation (FedEx) in 2014 is strapping yourself to a company in the middle of cost cutting to improve margins and fighting hard to reduce current and future labor costs. Unlike other companies, where there is at least a hint of "cooperation" between the pilot group (our management still won't say "union", but says "association" instead) and management, we are cultivating a declining climate of morale, not an improving one. We may grow, but the grow will be organic and incremental. We will replace pilots as they retire, and so far it seems we will have the 4000-4400 pilot group we've had for the last decade.
The legacies, on the other hand, are facing a steep cliff of retirements, and they are moving to reclaim flying pawned off the the regionals in the 1990s and 2000s. The combination means faster advancement and more growth than the legacies have seen in 20 years. Comparing joining Delta in 2000 to joining FedEx in 2000 will give you a very different model than doing the same comparison in 2014.
We have a pension. Its great. I love it. But the company wants to take it and replace it with a DC plan (like Delta and the other legacies). I don't think they will get it--but the point is they are trying to shift the burden of retirement risk to the pilot group. Will we still have an A plan if you come here 20 years from now? How hard are YOU willing to fight to keep it? You may prevail, but its been made clear you will have to fight each round to keep it going.
So--that leaves us with the "other" benefits of the companies:
FedEx: Payrates. Pension. Insurance benefits. No flight attendents. Fewer (sometimes) legs. Week on/off schedules. Stability (for now). A 75% discount on shipping. Jr domicile: Bases MEM, IND, ANC (shrinking), LAX (senior), CGN, HKG
Delta: Rising pay. Flight attendants (can be a pro if you are single, I guess). Daylight flying. Non-rev travel. 75% discount on FedEx shipping. (Yep--you get the SAME benefit we do...) Bases: ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, SEA (senior), LAX (senior), SLC. 12 hour reserve callout (a wish list item on my list...)
When I look at "upside", it seems there is a lot more available at Delta. Then again, our company has shown it can survive a downturn. Pax carriers furlough. But...if you are gambler, and have some ways to mitigate the risk, I don't think anyone has seen a hiring wave like this one in the last 2 decades.
The legacies, on the other hand, are facing a steep cliff of retirements, and they are moving to reclaim flying pawned off the the regionals in the 1990s and 2000s. The combination means faster advancement and more growth than the legacies have seen in 20 years. Comparing joining Delta in 2000 to joining FedEx in 2000 will give you a very different model than doing the same comparison in 2014.
We have a pension. Its great. I love it. But the company wants to take it and replace it with a DC plan (like Delta and the other legacies). I don't think they will get it--but the point is they are trying to shift the burden of retirement risk to the pilot group. Will we still have an A plan if you come here 20 years from now? How hard are YOU willing to fight to keep it? You may prevail, but its been made clear you will have to fight each round to keep it going.
So--that leaves us with the "other" benefits of the companies:
FedEx: Payrates. Pension. Insurance benefits. No flight attendents. Fewer (sometimes) legs. Week on/off schedules. Stability (for now). A 75% discount on shipping. Jr domicile: Bases MEM, IND, ANC (shrinking), LAX (senior), CGN, HKG
Delta: Rising pay. Flight attendants (can be a pro if you are single, I guess). Daylight flying. Non-rev travel. 75% discount on FedEx shipping. (Yep--you get the SAME benefit we do...) Bases: ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, SEA (senior), LAX (senior), SLC. 12 hour reserve callout (a wish list item on my list...)
When I look at "upside", it seems there is a lot more available at Delta. Then again, our company has shown it can survive a downturn. Pax carriers furlough. But...if you are gambler, and have some ways to mitigate the risk, I don't think anyone has seen a hiring wave like this one in the last 2 decades.
12-20-2014, 07:02 PM
#146
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: RJ Capt
Posts: 63
I have had a lot of conversations with friends and clients over the last two years about this very thing. I am NOT bashing my company, and I (generally) love my job. That said, getting hired into this operation (FedEx) in 2014 is strapping yourself to a company in the middle of cost cutting to improve margins and fighting hard to reduce current and future labor costs. Unlike other companies, where there is at least a hint of "cooperation" between the pilot group (our management still won't say "union", but says "association" instead) and management, we are cultivating a declining climate of morale, not an improving one. We may grow, but the grow will be organic and incremental. We will replace pilots as they retire, and so far it seems we will have the 4000-4400 pilot group we've had for the last decade.
The legacies, on the other hand, are facing a steep cliff of retirements, and they are moving to reclaim flying pawned off the the regionals in the 1990s and 2000s. The combination means faster advancement and more growth than the legacies have seen in 20 years. Comparing joining Delta in 2000 to joining FedEx in 2000 will give you a very different model than doing the same comparison in 2014.
We have a pension. Its great. I love it. But the company wants to take it and replace it with a DC plan (like Delta and the other legacies). I don't think they will get it--but the point is they are trying to shift the burden of retirement risk to the pilot group. Will we still have an A plan if you come here 20 years from now? How hard are YOU willing to fight to keep it? You may prevail, but its been made clear you will have to fight each round to keep it going.
So--that leaves us with the "other" benefits of the companies:
FedEx: Payrates. Pension. Insurance benefits. No flight attendents. Fewer (sometimes) legs. Week on/off schedules. Stability (for now). A 75% discount on shipping. Jr domicile: Bases MEM, IND, ANC (shrinking), LAX (senior), CGN, HKG
Delta: Rising pay. Flight attendants (can be a pro if you are single, I guess). Daylight flying. Non-rev travel. 75% discount on FedEx shipping. (Yep--you get the SAME benefit we do...) Bases: ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, SEA (senior), LAX (senior), SLC. 12 hour reserve callout (a wish list item on my list...)
When I look at "upside", it seems there is a lot more available at Delta. Then again, our company has shown it can survive a downturn. Pax carriers furlough. But...if you are gambler, and have some ways to mitigate the risk, I don't think anyone has seen a hiring wave like this one in the last 2 decades.
The legacies, on the other hand, are facing a steep cliff of retirements, and they are moving to reclaim flying pawned off the the regionals in the 1990s and 2000s. The combination means faster advancement and more growth than the legacies have seen in 20 years. Comparing joining Delta in 2000 to joining FedEx in 2000 will give you a very different model than doing the same comparison in 2014.
We have a pension. Its great. I love it. But the company wants to take it and replace it with a DC plan (like Delta and the other legacies). I don't think they will get it--but the point is they are trying to shift the burden of retirement risk to the pilot group. Will we still have an A plan if you come here 20 years from now? How hard are YOU willing to fight to keep it? You may prevail, but its been made clear you will have to fight each round to keep it going.
So--that leaves us with the "other" benefits of the companies:
FedEx: Payrates. Pension. Insurance benefits. No flight attendents. Fewer (sometimes) legs. Week on/off schedules. Stability (for now). A 75% discount on shipping. Jr domicile: Bases MEM, IND, ANC (shrinking), LAX (senior), CGN, HKG
Delta: Rising pay. Flight attendants (can be a pro if you are single, I guess). Daylight flying. Non-rev travel. 75% discount on FedEx shipping. (Yep--you get the SAME benefit we do...) Bases: ATL, DTW, MSP, JFK, SEA (senior), LAX (senior), SLC. 12 hour reserve callout (a wish list item on my list...)
When I look at "upside", it seems there is a lot more available at Delta. Then again, our company has shown it can survive a downturn. Pax carriers furlough. But...if you are gambler, and have some ways to mitigate the risk, I don't think anyone has seen a hiring wave like this one in the last 2 decades.
People have short term memory every time there is a surge. I encourage everyone to use historical data points to guide their decision making. If you're lucky enough to get a call from FedEx, I suggest you make that the priority.
12-20-2014, 07:48 PM
#147
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 2,889
Guys hired in 2007 can hold NB captain at Delta (JFK). Guys hired in 2007 at FedEx are bottom 300, or 7%, and mostly on right seat of 757 and hub turning.
If I could be "anyone", who would not want to be an 88, 94-98 hire at FedEx? Those guys did well because they caught a rising tide. Guys hired at SWA in the early 90s had a similar ride. I was late to the party in 2002 as part of the postal hiring, but its been a very nice ride for me as well.
The up and down cycles in the pax industry won't go away. But in the early 90s, there were a handful of legacies carriers. Eastern failed, as did TWA. Pan Am died. Now there are basically 3 major carriers. There is always a downside risk, but the risk is much smaller than it was in past decades. Additionally, since the legacies have moved to DC plans, there is less risk to your retirement. If you company fails--it stinks--and you are on the street again looking for work. What is different now is that you will be on the street with whatever you have saved in your 401k plus your 16-18% B fund. It sucks--but it sucks less than the guys who lost pensions in the early 2000s or lost their companies in the 1990s.
I think FedEx is a great career for the right person. However, there is a tendency, especially among guys who caught the wave at the right time, to assume anyone else who joins that company will have similar advancement. FedEx wasn't everyone's first choice in the 90s, but for the guys who looked ahead and got hired here it worked out pretty well. Delta, American, etc were the darlings of 1999. Then we had 9/11. SWA was everyone's favorite in the early 2000s, as were we. Nobody wanted to be at a legacy anymore. Point is guys hired in the 90s at both SWA and FedEx did well. Guys who joined SWA and FDX in the 2000s--the only games really hiring--have ended up in companies with much slower advancement. The checks clear, the companies are strong, and its doesn't suck to work at either place.
The thing is, when you start to poo-poo the legacies, IMHO you sound like the same voices over there that wondered why anyone would come to FedEx or SWA when they could be there instead. The industry has become inverted again, with Delta hiring pilots in the late 2000s while UPS was furloughing them. Assuming that just because Fedex was THE place to be in 1995, or even 2000, that it will always be a better opportunity is pretty short sighted. We've gotten the postal contract 3 times, and I am very grateful for the security, day flying, and extra pilots it requires. We got 5 more years on this round. Will it come back? What would the impact be to hiring, advancement, and Q of life is we miss the getting it renewed? How likely is that? Probably no more or less likely than one of the big 3 airlines going under in the next 15 years...
My fear is not another 9/11. My fear is the suit that will replace Fred Smith when that transition finally occurs at some point in the future. We've had a great couple decades. I can skate to the finish. If I had 20-30 years to go I would really, really weigh my choices.
When I got here, I always heard, enjoyed, and repeated the mantras I heard: "Boxes don't *****", and "The boxes always keep moving..." The corollary that we've learned watching UPS is "boxes don't complain if they take 1 night, or two weeks to get to the destination..." People will always fly. We are not going to take trains to the west coast, or accept steaming on a ship for a week to get to London. There will be cycles up and down, and it won't be linear. But shippers are finding other ways to move goods (mode shift), and both UPS and FedEx have scope issues (FedEx--external--UPS--internal with NURPs). We now put some of our cargo not the bellies of pax carriers--something very new in our business model. Those Asia bound 777s at American and Delta can hold a 757's worth of cargo in their belly alone. Sitting around and saying "I made 300k for a decade here--you will too" may be the truth. But we aren't recession proof, nor are we the only way to move goods in the 21st century. I think both Delta and FedEx will be around for decades to come, and both probably successful. I do not, however, think that we have some kind of cosmic voodoo that keeps us from experiencing downturns, and when you are making a choice that involves decades of your life you should move with your eyes open to all the possiblities.
If I could be "anyone", who would not want to be an 88, 94-98 hire at FedEx? Those guys did well because they caught a rising tide. Guys hired at SWA in the early 90s had a similar ride. I was late to the party in 2002 as part of the postal hiring, but its been a very nice ride for me as well.
The up and down cycles in the pax industry won't go away. But in the early 90s, there were a handful of legacies carriers. Eastern failed, as did TWA. Pan Am died. Now there are basically 3 major carriers. There is always a downside risk, but the risk is much smaller than it was in past decades. Additionally, since the legacies have moved to DC plans, there is less risk to your retirement. If you company fails--it stinks--and you are on the street again looking for work. What is different now is that you will be on the street with whatever you have saved in your 401k plus your 16-18% B fund. It sucks--but it sucks less than the guys who lost pensions in the early 2000s or lost their companies in the 1990s.
I think FedEx is a great career for the right person. However, there is a tendency, especially among guys who caught the wave at the right time, to assume anyone else who joins that company will have similar advancement. FedEx wasn't everyone's first choice in the 90s, but for the guys who looked ahead and got hired here it worked out pretty well. Delta, American, etc were the darlings of 1999. Then we had 9/11. SWA was everyone's favorite in the early 2000s, as were we. Nobody wanted to be at a legacy anymore. Point is guys hired in the 90s at both SWA and FedEx did well. Guys who joined SWA and FDX in the 2000s--the only games really hiring--have ended up in companies with much slower advancement. The checks clear, the companies are strong, and its doesn't suck to work at either place.
The thing is, when you start to poo-poo the legacies, IMHO you sound like the same voices over there that wondered why anyone would come to FedEx or SWA when they could be there instead. The industry has become inverted again, with Delta hiring pilots in the late 2000s while UPS was furloughing them. Assuming that just because Fedex was THE place to be in 1995, or even 2000, that it will always be a better opportunity is pretty short sighted. We've gotten the postal contract 3 times, and I am very grateful for the security, day flying, and extra pilots it requires. We got 5 more years on this round. Will it come back? What would the impact be to hiring, advancement, and Q of life is we miss the getting it renewed? How likely is that? Probably no more or less likely than one of the big 3 airlines going under in the next 15 years...
My fear is not another 9/11. My fear is the suit that will replace Fred Smith when that transition finally occurs at some point in the future. We've had a great couple decades. I can skate to the finish. If I had 20-30 years to go I would really, really weigh my choices.
When I got here, I always heard, enjoyed, and repeated the mantras I heard: "Boxes don't *****", and "The boxes always keep moving..." The corollary that we've learned watching UPS is "boxes don't complain if they take 1 night, or two weeks to get to the destination..." People will always fly. We are not going to take trains to the west coast, or accept steaming on a ship for a week to get to London. There will be cycles up and down, and it won't be linear. But shippers are finding other ways to move goods (mode shift), and both UPS and FedEx have scope issues (FedEx--external--UPS--internal with NURPs). We now put some of our cargo not the bellies of pax carriers--something very new in our business model. Those Asia bound 777s at American and Delta can hold a 757's worth of cargo in their belly alone. Sitting around and saying "I made 300k for a decade here--you will too" may be the truth. But we aren't recession proof, nor are we the only way to move goods in the 21st century. I think both Delta and FedEx will be around for decades to come, and both probably successful. I do not, however, think that we have some kind of cosmic voodoo that keeps us from experiencing downturns, and when you are making a choice that involves decades of your life you should move with your eyes open to all the possiblities.
12-20-2014, 09:21 PM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Pressing On
Posts: 524
Not so fast
Fedex is a great job. They just haven't offered any off the street folks in over 2 years. If Fedex offers you a class date first, you are gonna commute from the town of your dreams or of your reserve unit, and you have 20-25 years to fly, you probably won't be disappointed.
But if you have another offer first or simultaneously, you don't have that long to fly, and are happy to live in the NYC area, Atlanta, DFW, Miami, Houston, or the west coast, then you might want to consider your options.
Fedex has brutal reserve rules, and new hire life is no picnic there. Talk to your friends there and at the legacies and get some hard facts that will apply to your life situation, reserve rules, available bases, and training pay/hotel. There are real differences. Some not a big deal but some worth considering. Then there is the 800lb gorilla. The hard reality is Fedex suits want nothing more than to take that pilot A fund. Another harsh reality is the pilot group there has no great motivation to sacrifice anything in their current contract negotiation for guys not on the property. Not pointing fingers just pointing out life in the big leagues. 15-16% B funds are industry standard at the legacies and maybe you might get that as replacement for the A fund. Maybe not. Want to fly backside of the clock for a lesser retirement than your legacy buds/Captain? Hmmmm.....
Who is the more sustainable long term company? Lots of smart people can argue different positions on that. I have run a lot of numbers but while retirement percentages and year by year or year to year plus 1 or 2 and the footnotes on the unglossy paper in the Annual Reports are all things i can comment on, i have no idea of who is more of a great long term bet. Nobody else is either. Albie hit the nail on the head about who replaces Fred. Look at SWA, they are doing fine but their current leadership is not Herb. And who saw oil at $50 a barrel? Somebody said you will know when you retire if you made the right choice. An old skipper told me to buy a Captain's house early, you will either die in it or keep it in bankruptcy.
So if you get to pick, think it over. If you don't go to first one and don't look back.
Easy.
But if you have another offer first or simultaneously, you don't have that long to fly, and are happy to live in the NYC area, Atlanta, DFW, Miami, Houston, or the west coast, then you might want to consider your options.
Fedex has brutal reserve rules, and new hire life is no picnic there. Talk to your friends there and at the legacies and get some hard facts that will apply to your life situation, reserve rules, available bases, and training pay/hotel. There are real differences. Some not a big deal but some worth considering. Then there is the 800lb gorilla. The hard reality is Fedex suits want nothing more than to take that pilot A fund. Another harsh reality is the pilot group there has no great motivation to sacrifice anything in their current contract negotiation for guys not on the property. Not pointing fingers just pointing out life in the big leagues. 15-16% B funds are industry standard at the legacies and maybe you might get that as replacement for the A fund. Maybe not. Want to fly backside of the clock for a lesser retirement than your legacy buds/Captain? Hmmmm.....
Who is the more sustainable long term company? Lots of smart people can argue different positions on that. I have run a lot of numbers but while retirement percentages and year by year or year to year plus 1 or 2 and the footnotes on the unglossy paper in the Annual Reports are all things i can comment on, i have no idea of who is more of a great long term bet. Nobody else is either. Albie hit the nail on the head about who replaces Fred. Look at SWA, they are doing fine but their current leadership is not Herb. And who saw oil at $50 a barrel? Somebody said you will know when you retire if you made the right choice. An old skipper told me to buy a Captain's house early, you will either die in it or keep it in bankruptcy.
So if you get to pick, think it over. If you don't go to first one and don't look back.
Easy.
12-20-2014, 09:46 PM
#149
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: MD-11 CA
Posts: 65
The main statement is Decades of your life. It can be sitting reserve at home in some nice city that American, Delta, United has as domicles. Commuting and sitting in a crash pad in Memphis or moving there.
Take your choice.
Take your choice.
12-21-2014, 03:10 AM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2012
Position: Two Wheeler FrontSeat
Posts: 1,162
Guys hired in 2007 can hold NB captain at Delta (JFK). Guys hired in 2007 at FedEx are bottom 300, or 7%, and mostly on right seat of 757 and hub turning.
If I could be "anyone", who would not want to be an 88, 94-98 hire at FedEx? Those guys did well because they caught a rising tide. Guys hired at SWA in the early 90s had a similar ride. I was late to the party in 2002 as part of the postal hiring, but its been a very nice ride for me as well.
The up and down cycles in the pax industry won't go away. But in the early 90s, there were a handful of legacies carriers. Eastern failed, as did TWA. Pan Am died. Now there are basically 3 major carriers.
There is always a downside risk, but the risk is much smaller than it was in past decades. Additionally, since the legacies have moved to DC plans, there is less risk to your retirement. If you company fails--it stinks--and you are on the street again looking for work. What is different now is that you will be on the street with whatever you have saved in your 401k plus your 16-18% B fund. It sucks--but it sucks less than the guys who lost pensions in the early 2000s or lost their companies in the 1990s.
I think FedEx is a great career for the right person. However, there is a tendency, especially among guys who caught the wave at the right time, to assume anyone else who joins that company will have similar advancement. FedEx wasn't everyone's first choice in the 90s, but for the guys who looked ahead and got hired here it worked out pretty well. Delta, American, etc were the darlings of 1999. Then we had 9/11. SWA was everyone's favorite in the early 2000s, as were we. Nobody wanted to be at a legacy anymore. Point is guys hired in the 90s at both SWA and FedEx did well. Guys who joined SWA and FDX in the 2000s--the only games really hiring--have ended up in companies with much slower advancement. The checks clear, the companies are strong, and its doesn't suck to work at either place.
The thing is, when you start to poo-poo the legacies, IMHO you sound like the same voices over there that wondered why anyone would come to FedEx or SWA when they could be there instead. The industry has become inverted again, with Delta hiring pilots in the late 2000s while UPS was furloughing them. Assuming that just because Fedex was THE place to be in 1995, or even 2000, that it will always be a better opportunity is pretty short sighted. We've gotten the postal contract 3 times, and I am very grateful for the security, day flying, and extra pilots it requires. We got 5 more years on this round. Will it come back? What would the impact be to hiring, advancement, and Q of life is we miss the getting it renewed? How likely is that? Probably no more or less likely than one of the big 3 airlines going under in the next 15 years...
My fear is not another 9/11. My fear is the suit that will replace Fred Smith when that transition finally occurs at some point in the future. We've had a great couple decades. I can skate to the finish. If I had 20-30 years to go I would really, really weigh my choices.
When I got here, I always heard, enjoyed, and repeated the mantras I heard: "Boxes don't *****", and "The boxes always keep moving..." The corollary that we've learned watching UPS is "boxes don't complain if they take 1 night, or two weeks to get to the destination..." People will always fly. We are not going to take trains to the west coast, or accept steaming on a ship for a week to get to London. There will be cycles up and down, and it won't be linear. But shippers are finding other ways to move goods (mode shift), and both UPS and FedEx have scope issues (FedEx--external--UPS--internal with NURPs). We now put some of our cargo not the bellies of pax carriers--something very new in our business model. Those Asia bound 777s at American and Delta can hold a 757's worth of cargo in their belly alone. Sitting around and saying "I made 300k for a decade here--you will too" may be the truth. But we aren't recession proof, nor are we the only way to move goods in the 21st century. I think both Delta and FedEx will be around for decades to come, and both probably successful. I do not, however, think that we have some kind of cosmic voodoo that keeps us from experiencing downturns, and when you are making a choice that involves decades of your life you should move with your eyes open to all the possiblities.
If I could be "anyone", who would not want to be an 88, 94-98 hire at FedEx? Those guys did well because they caught a rising tide. Guys hired at SWA in the early 90s had a similar ride. I was late to the party in 2002 as part of the postal hiring, but its been a very nice ride for me as well.
The up and down cycles in the pax industry won't go away. But in the early 90s, there were a handful of legacies carriers. Eastern failed, as did TWA. Pan Am died. Now there are basically 3 major carriers.
There is always a downside risk, but the risk is much smaller than it was in past decades. Additionally, since the legacies have moved to DC plans, there is less risk to your retirement. If you company fails--it stinks--and you are on the street again looking for work. What is different now is that you will be on the street with whatever you have saved in your 401k plus your 16-18% B fund. It sucks--but it sucks less than the guys who lost pensions in the early 2000s or lost their companies in the 1990s.
I think FedEx is a great career for the right person. However, there is a tendency, especially among guys who caught the wave at the right time, to assume anyone else who joins that company will have similar advancement. FedEx wasn't everyone's first choice in the 90s, but for the guys who looked ahead and got hired here it worked out pretty well. Delta, American, etc were the darlings of 1999. Then we had 9/11. SWA was everyone's favorite in the early 2000s, as were we. Nobody wanted to be at a legacy anymore. Point is guys hired in the 90s at both SWA and FedEx did well. Guys who joined SWA and FDX in the 2000s--the only games really hiring--have ended up in companies with much slower advancement. The checks clear, the companies are strong, and its doesn't suck to work at either place.
The thing is, when you start to poo-poo the legacies, IMHO you sound like the same voices over there that wondered why anyone would come to FedEx or SWA when they could be there instead. The industry has become inverted again, with Delta hiring pilots in the late 2000s while UPS was furloughing them. Assuming that just because Fedex was THE place to be in 1995, or even 2000, that it will always be a better opportunity is pretty short sighted. We've gotten the postal contract 3 times, and I am very grateful for the security, day flying, and extra pilots it requires. We got 5 more years on this round. Will it come back? What would the impact be to hiring, advancement, and Q of life is we miss the getting it renewed? How likely is that? Probably no more or less likely than one of the big 3 airlines going under in the next 15 years...
My fear is not another 9/11. My fear is the suit that will replace Fred Smith when that transition finally occurs at some point in the future. We've had a great couple decades. I can skate to the finish. If I had 20-30 years to go I would really, really weigh my choices.
When I got here, I always heard, enjoyed, and repeated the mantras I heard: "Boxes don't *****", and "The boxes always keep moving..." The corollary that we've learned watching UPS is "boxes don't complain if they take 1 night, or two weeks to get to the destination..." People will always fly. We are not going to take trains to the west coast, or accept steaming on a ship for a week to get to London. There will be cycles up and down, and it won't be linear. But shippers are finding other ways to move goods (mode shift), and both UPS and FedEx have scope issues (FedEx--external--UPS--internal with NURPs). We now put some of our cargo not the bellies of pax carriers--something very new in our business model. Those Asia bound 777s at American and Delta can hold a 757's worth of cargo in their belly alone. Sitting around and saying "I made 300k for a decade here--you will too" may be the truth. But we aren't recession proof, nor are we the only way to move goods in the 21st century. I think both Delta and FedEx will be around for decades to come, and both probably successful. I do not, however, think that we have some kind of cosmic voodoo that keeps us from experiencing downturns, and when you are making a choice that involves decades of your life you should move with your eyes open to all the possiblities.
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