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Old 08-23-2023, 06:32 AM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by Merle Haggard
The leverage is there people. Raj and Dietrich can't fly airplanes. Most people can't fly airplanes. Other companies are paying and treating people better to fly airplanes.

There's your leverage.
They are for now. Why? Because there is more demand than supply in the pax world right now. We had that when we started negotiations, but didn't use it. Now, it is gone!
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Old 08-23-2023, 07:16 AM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by JustInFacts
To answer you questions;
1. Yes, we had leverage, we didn't use it.
2. We took a strike vote because there was very little movement by the company and the NMB signaled that they weren't happy with the company's position.
3. The company negotiates because they are requited to under the RLA. If the NMB believes they are not negotiating in good faith, they would release us to self help.
4. There are many items that factor into profit. Profit is a good thing.

So, how do we make it crystal clear that our patience is not endless? When our patience runs out, then what? You do realize that it is up to the NMB, don't you? You do realize that both parties want things in negotiations? We already have more than half of the MEC that is already subject to recall or their terms are ending. So, again, what is special about this peak? If we are still in negotiations 6 months from now, then this peak didn't mean anything different.
This peak is no different than any other peak - it’s a time of max Pilot need - but it is going to happen before 2024 peak does.

How much certainty does the company want this peak? How much do they want in 2024? Are there any business events in between where they want pilot cost clarity/certainty ?

I don’t know. You don’t know. Our union doesn’t know, but we must be fully prepared with what we want when it comes.

Why did the company decide to up their offer in May? Why was there a last minute idea to compress the pay scale from 15-12 years ? They were clearly attempting to sweeten the deal for more junior pilots so it would pass this summer

Why did they want it to pass this summer?

To display FedEx Labor certainty vs UPS Labor Uncertainty?

To finally punt our pesky A Plan?

If you believe everything is just driven by the NMB then I really can’t convince you that either side has much agency or urgency

I think businesses don’t like uncertainty, and at some point are willing to pay a “certainty equivalent” wage to eliminate their business risk

Look at the MBCB Plan - FedEx offer was 11% to get rid of the risk of funding the A plan for all future pilots

The majority of pilots said “No Thanks” - especially if it required scheduling/QOL concessions, combined with below-industry pay rates

While many pay/retirement issues were not fully resolved with TA1.0, I do believe they are more clearly bounded.

We know the FedEx offer was insufficient - but we do know they were agreeable, and it was affordable.

So what needs to change? And by how much?

Payrates?
MBCBP percentage?
Scheduling concessions/rules?
Scope?

Both parties will have to decide. I think we are better off deciding our updated pilot wants/needs expeditiously - but with much more transparency, integrity and unity (for everyone).

Peak is Peak - it comes every year. How quickly we regroup & refocus to take advantage of that is up to us. I’m certainly not advocating for a rush job, but I don’t believe the doom & gloom that it will take years

VR,
DLax
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Old 08-23-2023, 07:58 AM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by Merle Haggard
The leverage is there people. Raj and Dietrich can't fly airplanes. Most people can't fly airplanes. Other companies are paying and treating people better to fly airplanes.

There's your leverage.
Isn’t Dietrich the guy who tanked his own company just to spite the pilots getting a fair contract? Something along those lines? Personally, I doubt either one of the executives you mentioned are giving a second thought to FedEx pilots being treated equally to legacy pilots. As Mr. Luby once read from his phone, the cargo industry is different and therefore demands a different contract offering. I.e. we aren’t worth what they are. This is his mindset, one that is likely shared by ALPA National and our management. Any pilot flying a snowy EVFS approach into their hub turn with a pallet of lithium ion 10 feet behind them and generating 10x the revenue of a similarly sized pax plane would clearly disagree. We all have our story as to why we deserve the best contract though. Look no further than the SWAPA updates that get circulated. “Hardest working pilot group in the industry.” Why? Because you cram your entire months credit into 13 days of work? That’s what they cling to, just as we cling to hub turning. The money man doesn’t care in either case.

I’d love to believe we have some leverage. I’m just not seeing it. Air cargo is forecast to be flat or minimally improve deep into 2024. We’re overstaffed, although chipping away at that because the industry and anyone who once had hopes of working here have turned a cold shoulder. Our own pilots are willing to leave and start over, even with the potential risk of furlough. Legacy demand is showing signs of slowing already, by the way. Plus covid lockdowns are looming again. Different topic completely…

People I know that were hunting around the time I was thought they would never land a job here, it’s too prestigious… I don’t have enough shuttle landings or a Masters in physics, etc. They “settled” for XYZ major or legacy that would give them a shot. Now they are chest thumping their new contracts and looking down on FedEx pilots as if we’re second rate. I truly feel hesitant to tell my peers that I’m flying for this company now, the reaction I get is “dang, sorry man. Water’s fine here, come on over.” They don’t understand the full breadth of what’s happening here, but on the surface FedEx went from #1 to not even on the list. They might be right. Seems to me that Fred was willing to run a somewhat inefficient airline because he took pride in it and had an interest in aviation of his own. Our situation under his leadership may have produced leverage. The new leadership does not. The point is, just because legacies are flourishing doesn’t mean they think we should too.

Peak will be flat according to most analysts. It feels like February or March is when things could get really tough. Another thread mentioned leverage in the form of the upcoming USPS contract. I’m not sure how losing more business equates to leverage. Amazon is starting to soak up market share again. Something that could affect our bottom line, see the recent changes they have made and the immediate impact on stock prices for FDX/UPS. Can’t please the Street if you give your dwindling income to the pilots.

I want to be wrong and I’m doing my best to stay upbeat and on top of company and industry news, but I’m not seeing a lot of reasons to believe things will get better for at least another 12 months. I don’t necessarily believe the company will purposely drag out a negotiation just to delay and save money. But I do think we’ll face the same hard nosed negotiations that likely will not produce this glorious contract that puts us on a pedestal again. That takes time. These $10bn legacy contracts may bleed them dry. They have a supply/demand problem and their CEOs will stop at nothing to squeeze that lemon to the last drop. Attract every pilot possible as to choke out the competition. Secure every new aircraft order possible to do the same. That’s a game plan that could end poorly. But, it’s the same tactic FedEx used during covid to capture the increased potential for revenue. Here we are.

One glimmer I see on the horizon, and maybe it’s less impactful than I’m thinking, but FedEx is sponsoring the OBAP pilot hiring convention next year in Memphis. I can only imagine that requires a fairly significant monetary and “brand” investment. Perhaps with attrition (from top and bottom) and business slowly picking up into next fall we will see some positive results prior to peak 2024.
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Old 08-23-2023, 09:28 AM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by Smoked
Isn’t Dietrich the guy who tanked his own company just to spite the pilots getting a fair contract? Something along those lines? Personally, I doubt either one of the executives you mentioned are giving a second thought to FedEx pilots being treated equally to legacy pilots. As Mr. Luby once read from his phone, the cargo industry is different and therefore demands a different contract offering. I.e. we aren’t worth what they are. This is his mindset, one that is likely shared by ALPA National and our management. Any pilot flying a snowy EVFS approach into their hub turn with a pallet of lithium ion 10 feet behind them and generating 10x the revenue of a similarly sized pax plane would clearly disagree. We all have our story as to why we deserve the best contract though. Look no further than the SWAPA updates that get circulated. “Hardest working pilot group in the industry.” Why? Because you cram your entire months credit into 13 days of work? That’s what they cling to, just as we cling to hub turning. The money man doesn’t care in either case.

I’d love to believe we have some leverage. I’m just not seeing it. Air cargo is forecast to be flat or minimally improve deep into 2024. We’re overstaffed, although chipping away at that because the industry and anyone who once had hopes of working here have turned a cold shoulder. Our own pilots are willing to leave and start over, even with the potential risk of furlough. Legacy demand is showing signs of slowing already, by the way. Plus covid lockdowns are looming again. Different topic completely…

People I know that were hunting around the time I was thought they would never land a job here, it’s too prestigious… I don’t have enough shuttle landings or a Masters in physics, etc. They “settled” for XYZ major or legacy that would give them a shot. Now they are chest thumping their new contracts and looking down on FedEx pilots as if we’re second rate. I truly feel hesitant to tell my peers that I’m flying for this company now, the reaction I get is “dang, sorry man. Water’s fine here, come on over.” They don’t understand the full breadth of what’s happening here, but on the surface FedEx went from #1 to not even on the list. They might be right. Seems to me that Fred was willing to run a somewhat inefficient airline because he took pride in it and had an interest in aviation of his own. Our situation under his leadership may have produced leverage. The new leadership does not. The point is, just because legacies are flourishing doesn’t mean they think we should too.

Peak will be flat according to most analysts. It feels like February or March is when things could get really tough. Another thread mentioned leverage in the form of the upcoming USPS contract. I’m not sure how losing more business equates to leverage. Amazon is starting to soak up market share again. Something that could affect our bottom line, see the recent changes they have made and the immediate impact on stock prices for FDX/UPS. Can’t please the Street if you give your dwindling income to the pilots.

I want to be wrong and I’m doing my best to stay upbeat and on top of company and industry news, but I’m not seeing a lot of reasons to believe things will get better for at least another 12 months. I don’t necessarily believe the company will purposely drag out a negotiation just to delay and save money. But I do think we’ll face the same hard nosed negotiations that likely will not produce this glorious contract that puts us on a pedestal again. That takes time. These $10bn legacy contracts may bleed them dry. They have a supply/demand problem and their CEOs will stop at nothing to squeeze that lemon to the last drop. Attract every pilot possible as to choke out the competition. Secure every new aircraft order possible to do the same. That’s a game plan that could end poorly. But, it’s the same tactic FedEx used during covid to capture the increased potential for revenue. Here we are.

One glimmer I see on the horizon, and maybe it’s less impactful than I’m thinking, but FedEx is sponsoring the OBAP pilot hiring convention next year in Memphis. I can only imagine that requires a fairly significant monetary and “brand” investment. Perhaps with attrition (from top and bottom) and business slowly picking up into next fall we will see some positive results prior to peak 2024.
your analysis is garbage. stick to flying airplanes.
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Old 08-23-2023, 10:02 AM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by Anthrax
your analysis is garbage. stick to flying airplanes.
Help me change my mind.
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Old 08-23-2023, 11:14 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by Smoked
Help me change my mind.
I’m not the answer. you are.

yes, there are business models at play, and those models have programmed you to believe that you have little value to the equation. when in fact, we are the nuts and bolts of this business, one that profits handsomely off of our skills and energy. a business in which top-level managers believe that they are worth significant amounts, but to get there they must keep us in fear and enslaved. it’s the corporate model. until you value yourself as they do they will always win, and with every winner there is a loser.

true unity would have us quite literally forcing higher compensation for our efforts. make no mistake, PM, we are NOT on the same team.

ask yourself how far this company would go without us? even if the prez himself squashed a potential strike, no one could ever force you to work. they fire you, go elsewhere. they fire you, no right-minded pilot would ever come to work here. we are symbiotic to the success of this company, only they would have you believe that they could do it with or without us. I would love to see them try, not that Wall Street would let them. If the street had to take less so that we could get more, if push came to shove, they would. better less than nothing at all, which is sadly our mindset. it’s time to give this back to them in spades. the pilot shortage is real. we’ve allowed far too many concessionary contracts for a highly profitable company. we give up QOL for less-than inflationary pay rates. and oh, we die off well before our sell-by dates. how many pilots have we lost this year? pilots that won’t collect a single pension check? this job is very demanding, know your worth.
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Old 08-23-2023, 11:20 AM
  #97  
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Originally Posted by DLax85
This peak is no different than any other peak - it’s a time of max Pilot need - but it is going to happen before 2024 peak does.

How much certainty does the company want this peak? How much do they want in 2024? Are there any business events in between where they want pilot cost clarity/certainty ?

I don’t know. You don’t know. Our union doesn’t know, but we must be fully prepared with what we want when it comes.

Why did the company decide to up their offer in May? Why was there a last minute idea to compress the pay scale from 15-12 years ? They were clearly attempting to sweeten the deal for more junior pilots so it would pass this summer

Why did they want it to pass this summer?

To display FedEx Labor certainty vs UPS Labor Uncertainty?

To finally punt our pesky A Plan?

If you believe everything is just driven by the NMB then I really can’t convince you that either side has much agency or urgency

I think businesses don’t like uncertainty, and at some point are willing to pay a “certainty equivalent” wage to eliminate their business risk

Look at the MBCB Plan - FedEx offer was 11% to get rid of the risk of funding the A plan for all future pilots

The majority of pilots said “No Thanks” - especially if it required scheduling/QOL concessions, combined with below-industry pay rates

While many pay/retirement issues were not fully resolved with TA1.0, I do believe they are more clearly bounded.

We know the FedEx offer was insufficient - but we do know they were agreeable, and it was affordable.

So what needs to change? And by how much?

Payrates?
MBCBP percentage?
Scheduling concessions/rules?
Scope?

Both parties will have to decide. I think we are better off deciding our updated pilot wants/needs expeditiously - but with much more transparency, integrity and unity (for everyone).

Peak is Peak - it comes every year. How quickly we regroup & refocus to take advantage of that is up to us. I’m certainly not advocating for a rush job, but I don’t believe the doom & gloom that it will take years

VR,
DLax
So you will admit that this peak is no different than any other peak while in negotiations. Thank you! Now, are you willing to see that our manning is much different this peak than in past peaks? If we have more than enough pilots to fly the freight, where is the leverage?

You ask why the company decided to significantly increase their offer in May. Maybe it had something to do with the meeting both sides had in DC with the NMB. Maybe it had something to do with shifting those costs to the next fiscal year so that they could show improvements with the DRIVE initiative to the share holders.

I don't believe that everything is predicated on the NMB, however, they do decide if or when we get to use that leverage of a strike vote. The longer amount of time that goes by, the less customers will believe that it is a possibility.

I will agree that a deal could be coming shortly if all that is addressed is pay, MBCMP, and maybe a clause about no wetlease during 4a2b or furlough. However, if all sections are opened like some of the more vocal posters suggest, it will be years.
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Old 08-23-2023, 11:24 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by Smoked
Isn’t Dietrich the guy who tanked his own company just to spite the pilots getting a fair contract? Something along those lines? Personally, I doubt either one of the executives you mentioned are giving a second thought to FedEx pilots being treated equally to legacy pilots. As Mr. Luby once read from his phone, the cargo industry is different and therefore demands a different contract offering. I.e. we aren’t worth what they are. This is his mindset, one that is likely shared by ALPA National and our management. Any pilot flying a snowy EVFS approach into their hub turn with a pallet of lithium ion 10 feet behind them and generating 10x the revenue of a similarly sized pax plane would clearly disagree. We all have our story as to why we deserve the best contract though. Look no further than the SWAPA updates that get circulated. “Hardest working pilot group in the industry.” Why? Because you cram your entire months credit into 13 days of work? That’s what they cling to, just as we cling to hub turning. The money man doesn’t care in either case.

I’d love to believe we have some leverage. I’m just not seeing it. Air cargo is forecast to be flat or minimally improve deep into 2024. We’re overstaffed, although chipping away at that because the industry and anyone who once had hopes of working here have turned a cold shoulder. Our own pilots are willing to leave and start over, even with the potential risk of furlough. Legacy demand is showing signs of slowing already, by the way. Plus covid lockdowns are looming again. Different topic completely…

People I know that were hunting around the time I was thought they would never land a job here, it’s too prestigious… I don’t have enough shuttle landings or a Masters in physics, etc. They “settled” for XYZ major or legacy that would give them a shot. Now they are chest thumping their new contracts and looking down on FedEx pilots as if we’re second rate. I truly feel hesitant to tell my peers that I’m flying for this company now, the reaction I get is “dang, sorry man. Water’s fine here, come on over.” They don’t understand the full breadth of what’s happening here, but on the surface FedEx went from #1 to not even on the list. They might be right. Seems to me that Fred was willing to run a somewhat inefficient airline because he took pride in it and had an interest in aviation of his own. Our situation under his leadership may have produced leverage. The new leadership does not. The point is, just because legacies are flourishing doesn’t mean they think we should too.

Peak will be flat according to most analysts. It feels like February or March is when things could get really tough. Another thread mentioned leverage in the form of the upcoming USPS contract. I’m not sure how losing more business equates to leverage. Amazon is starting to soak up market share again. Something that could affect our bottom line, see the recent changes they have made and the immediate impact on stock prices for FDX/UPS. Can’t please the Street if you give your dwindling income to the pilots.

I want to be wrong and I’m doing my best to stay upbeat and on top of company and industry news, but I’m not seeing a lot of reasons to believe things will get better for at least another 12 months. I don’t necessarily believe the company will purposely drag out a negotiation just to delay and save money. But I do think we’ll face the same hard nosed negotiations that likely will not produce this glorious contract that puts us on a pedestal again. That takes time. These $10bn legacy contracts may bleed them dry. They have a supply/demand problem and their CEOs will stop at nothing to squeeze that lemon to the last drop. Attract every pilot possible as to choke out the competition. Secure every new aircraft order possible to do the same. That’s a game plan that could end poorly. But, it’s the same tactic FedEx used during covid to capture the increased potential for revenue. Here we are.

One glimmer I see on the horizon, and maybe it’s less impactful than I’m thinking, but FedEx is sponsoring the OBAP pilot hiring convention next year in Memphis. I can only imagine that requires a fairly significant monetary and “brand” investment. Perhaps with attrition (from top and bottom) and business slowly picking up into next fall we will see some positive results prior to peak 2024.
Nice post!!!
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Old 08-23-2023, 11:28 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by JustInFacts
So you will admit that this peak is no different than any other peak while in negotiations. Thank you! Now, are you willing to see that our manning is much different this peak than in past peaks? If we have more than enough pilots to fly the freight, where is the leverage?

You ask why the company decided to significantly increase their offer in May. Maybe it had something to do with the meeting both sides had in DC with the NMB. Maybe it had something to do with shifting those costs to the next fiscal year so that they could show improvements with the DRIVE initiative to the share holders.

I don't believe that everything is predicated on the NMB, however, they do decide if or when we get to use that leverage of a strike vote. The longer amount of time that goes by, the less customers will believe that it is a possibility.

I will agree that a deal could be coming shortly if all that is addressed is pay, MBCMP, and maybe a clause about no wetlease during 4a2b or furlough. However, if all sections are opened like some of the more vocal posters suggest, it will be years.
your defeatist attitude is why we’ve always accepted concessionary contracts. you are a blight to this union, or perhaps a company shill.

consider the long game. analyze the board, and stop blundering pieces.

it is a shame that we share the same profession, because you bring down the average. were you a mercy hire? a nepo- baby, or were you born with low self-esteem?
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Old 08-23-2023, 11:29 AM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by JustInFacts
Nice post!!!
nice post, said one loser to another!
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