Originally Posted by Globemaster2827

Did you look at how that's all broken down? A small percentage involves us. It looked to me like we're 15-20% of $700 million over the next few years. The new sort facilities and fuel savings were about 2/3rds of it with maintenance savings in there... Did you hear we're getting rid of the MDs... Oh yeah... That's your point and that'll save both fuel and maintenance.

They are downsizing things by 200 jobs. Let's assume the average pilot costs them $300k a year counting everything. That's $60 million a year just right there and when you space that out over several years it almost exactly adds up to that percentage of $700 million. Oh yeah... They probably aren't going to make it that long without a new contract, so if we were to assume a 20% pay increase that'd probably be an extra $10-20 million per year they save on those 200 jobs cut... Plus signing bonuses.

Also, in this bid they stuffed an extra 200 pilots into the right seat of the 757 which saves millions more by paying these pilots who won't be flying much narrow body instead of widebody pay. This sucks, but they are being transparent about what they're doing there and it's money that's absolutely included in that crew number that you see on the slideshow presented above. If those pilots leave then they'll be saving maybe $250k a year counting everything and who knows if they included those numbers in there as well.

Get scared all you want. You can live in fear of this if it makes you feel better. It looks like something they're choosing to do now so that when things pick back up we can penetrate new markets with 767s and 777s instead of MD11s, 757s and Airbuses that are older than most of our pilots.

Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox

LOL .... I'm not scared. I won't be one of the ones who loses a seat or has a stagnant five years.

Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox

You completely missed the point. Yes, the MDs are going away. Yes, the company plans to replace them with 767s and 777s. This is all part of DRIVE to save $4B over the next few fiscal years.

Network 2.0 then starts. And we're going to see a reduction of flying hours as the truck-fly-truck model starts. And pushing deferred freight to airline bellies and contractors.

The airline is going to be much smaller.

Originally Posted by Globemaster2827

Yes and gaining 767s and 777s to replace them. I agree there will probably be a net loss of jets if the market continues like this but generally with down turns there are then upswings that exceed the down turns. If the airplanes sit they cost money that eats into profit. I agree 100% that this is bad, but it's not the end of the world either. We lose 2 jets over this bid and in 20 months things could be much better or worse than they are now economically. I'd be willing to bet that this time next year we're actually hiring to replace pilots who leave for greener pastures.

Originally Posted by Globemaster2827

So there are no plans for furloughing because we're only 200 over staffing metrics. Even if nobody retired (200 mandatory retirements per year), nobody left (which people on the bottom should), and nobody medicaled out we'd still be north of 4a2c staffing in a downswing for cargo. In 2 years we could see a global upswing in freight demand, the trade war with China end, 600 pilots leave, 400 pilots retire, a new contract, 400 early retirements, order new airplanes like A350s to hit new markets direct like Africa and parts of South America and need 1200 just to meet the current staffing level.

In all honesty this makes sense to retrain us for the new airplanes while there's less freight to move. If they scare the **** out of us during negotiations then that's a feature to them - not a bug.

Yes that's optimistic but it's FAR more plausible than furloughs after going through 4a2c when we aren't anywhere close to 4a2c levels by any metric. This isn't good but I don't think anyone should be peeing their pants either unless you're one of the commuters who'll be stuck in the right seat on reserve on the 757 for the next few years. Those guys should absolutely leave and there will be hundreds of them who do.

Originally Posted by Tuck

Look at the SAM after this trains out - if they continue their plan it’ll be in 4a2c territory.

Originally Posted by Tuck

you are reading it wrong. This isn’t a change due to a downturn. If economy were booming we’d still do this - it’s about stick price. We haven’t entered a recession yet and UPS hasn’t changed their fleet size or system form at all. This is way bigger and not dependent on economy .

Originally Posted by Tuck

you are assuming the bid is reflecting the entire picture. I do not believe it is - this is step one in their plan. You can’t tell how many pilots we are overmanned by the bid. Look at the SAM after this trains out - if they continue their plan it’ll be in 4a2c territory.