Globemaster2827

Attrition is pointless to the argument. We'd have to go through 4a2c to get to furloughs and that'd be worse than anything we saw in the Great Recession. "Furlough" is less probable than us hiring 800 pilots before December of 24 and anything beyond that is mostly speculative in nature. If we were to actually furlough we'd probably only need 3000 pilots on property. It's insane how much management has put a scare into all of you.

Globemaster2827

And replacing most of those with 767s and 777s... And this is in a downswing for cargo. This is bad but it's not the end of the world either.

Globemaster2827

So there are no plans for furloughing because we're only 200 over staffing metrics. Even if nobody retired (200 mandatory retirements per year), nobody left (which people on the bottom should), and nobody medicaled out we'd still be north of 4a2c staffing in a downswing for cargo. In 2 years we could see a global upswing in freight demand, the trade war with China end, 600 pilots leave, 400 pilots retire, a new contract, 400 early retirements, order new airplanes like A350s to hit new markets direct like Africa and parts of South America and need 1200 just to meet the current staffing level.

In all honesty this makes sense to retrain us for the new airplanes while there's less freight to move. If they scare the **** out of us during negotiations then that's a feature to them - not a bug.

Yes that's optimistic but it's FAR more plausible than furloughs after going through 4a2c when we aren't anywhere close to 4a2c levels by any metric. This isn't good but I don't think anyone should be peeing their pants either unless you're one of the commuters who'll be stuck in the right seat on reserve on the 757 for the next few years. Those guys should absolutely leave and there will be hundreds of them who do.

FXLAX

Twenty seven 767s and six 777s to be delivered and 25 MDs to be parked by June 2025 and the other 23 MDs by June 2028, to be more accurate.

PurpleToolBox

You completely missed the point. Yes, the MDs are going away. Yes, the company plans to replace them with 767s and 777s. This is all part of DRIVE to save $4B over the next few fiscal years.

Network 2.0 then starts. And we're going to see a reduction of flying hours as the truck-fly-truck model starts. And pushing deferred freight to airline bellies and contractors.

The airline is going to be much smaller.

Globemaster2827

And I would think they might add some airplanes in here somewhere because the freight still has to be moved. But even if they didn't they're staffing these things around 12.5-13 per pilot. Let's say we lost a net of 15 airplanes and ordered 0 more by your math. That's 195 pilots we'd need gone between no and June of 28 from the current staffing level which will work itself out over the next year with just mandatory retirements.

Again... This is bad, but it's not the end of the world. I doubt we even see 4a2c out of this. I think we'll be hiring in about a year personally.

abides

Who on APC has any credibility? Certainly not you. Until this forum goes to user names are employee numbers, I have no faith in any of the inside baseball I read here. But it’s good for a laugh.

JackStraw

That actually sounds like a brilliant plan for the company if they’re not interested in hiring for another 5 years and the absolute worst case possible scenario for the last guys on the seniority list. Furloughing would be much better than dragging the pilots along without letting them in on the plan to shrink to more savings. At least with a furlough they could abandon hope and get a career started somewhere without a shrinking fleet.

Globemaster2827

Did you look at how that's all broken down? A small percentage involves us. It looked to me like we're 15-20% of $700 million over the next few years. The new sort facilities and fuel savings were about 2/3rds of it with maintenance savings in there... Did you hear we're getting rid of the MDs... Oh yeah... That's your point and that'll save both fuel and maintenance.

They are downsizing things by 200 jobs. Let's assume the average pilot costs them $300k a year counting everything. That's $60 million a year just right there and when you space that out over several years it almost exactly adds up to that percentage of $700 million. Oh yeah... They probably aren't going to make it that long without a new contract, so if we were to assume a 20% pay increase that'd probably be an extra $10-20 million per year they save on those 200 jobs cut... Plus signing bonuses.

Also, in this bid they stuffed an extra 200 pilots into the right seat of the 757 which saves millions more by paying these pilots who won't be flying much narrow body instead of widebody pay. This sucks, but they are being transparent about what they're doing there and it's money that's absolutely included in that crew number that you see on the slideshow presented above. If those pilots leave then they'll be saving maybe $250k a year counting everything and who knows if they included those numbers in there as well.

Get scared all you want. You can live in fear of this if it makes you feel better. It looks like something they're choosing to do now so that when things pick back up we can penetrate new markets with 767s and 777s instead of MD11s, 757s and Airbuses that are older than most of our pilots.

Globemaster2827

The guys on the bottom should leave regardless. They don't have much invested here and starting on a currently growing legacy list would make more sense than sitting reserve in MEM on the bottom of the 757 list hoping to get wide body pay in 2025. The last 500 or so should have their apps out unless they live in MEM.