Tuck

losing 58 MDs in next 4 years I believe

gasnhaul

MX,

I looked at your numbers and think I found an error. You show 75FM at 362 for Min/Max Staffing from the FCIF, but then you have 468 immediately below that in both spots. This gives a total of 5624. If you subtract out the extra 106 there you'll get back to the 5518 total I keep coming up with. And, being lazy I hadn't run the numbers in the current staffing levels, I was using the seniority number of 6009 being highest I could find so I had assumed we were 500 over manned. So if 5518 is correct (but maybe it isn't I just don't know where you got the additional numbers), then it looks like the numbers are 298 overstaffed using Min and 28 understaffed using Max.

Gas

Tuck

too optimistic. We were some 400-600 overmanned last Fall before DRIVE was even thought of. Now CO has signaled very loudly that we will need far less pilots in future. This bid is only first step in that - it will be incremental. The ratios are changing because they want to drive the SAM down and enter 4a2b then c then furlough if needed. There aren’t MORE ocean crossings requiring more RFOs - they have already said PAC crossings will DECREASE by 30%. Can’t get to where they want to be in one swoop.

if you are junior and have ability to at least take a hard look elsewhere you’d be crazy not to do it - even with pax carriers history of furloughs and bankruptcy. Anyone who has been here for awhile and not looking through rose colored glasses realizes how different FedEx wants to take things.

we won’t be hiring for several years at least.

BrianH

One thing I have not read here is the fact that before contract '15 we were short 680ish pilots. On Implementation day, that shortage was over.

If we give away efficiencies this CBA, the excess will be greater. Something to think about.

gasnhaul

For those who haven't seen what some are talking about look here

https://s21.q4cdn.com/665674268/file...esentation.pdf

Specifically go to page 41. 30% REDUCTION in Pacific flying, INCREASED partner capacity, asset light...these aren't the things you want to be hearing going forward

123456

We’ll be hiring by Spring due to attrition and the mass exodus once the contract settles.

JackStraw

You may have lost credibility when you said we’d be hiring by this summer.

Let me poll the audience.

123456

I never said THIS summer.. I said the interview team was prepared to start interviewing in late August with proposed hiring a few months later after that, but it looks like I was off by a few months.. looks like it’ll be spring now unless the contract settles sooner.

Tuck

there won’t be a mass exodus - less than 200 will retire in 2023 with a TA -

Globemaster2827

Yes and gaining 767s and 777s to replace them. I agree there will probably be a net loss of jets if the market continues like this but generally with down turns there are then upswings that exceed the down turns. If the airplanes sit they cost money that eats into profit. I agree 100% that this is bad, but it's not the end of the world either. We lose 2 jets over this bid and in 20 months things could be much better or worse than they are now economically. I'd be willing to bet that this time next year we're actually hiring to replace pilots who leave for greener pastures.