FriendlyPilot

Helped get a friend hired from the military into United 2 years ago. He left United about 4 months later for FedEX because he felt cargo was “more stable”. He’d have 4,500 pilots junior to him now at United and be able to hold 737 Captain in almost every base and 756 Captain on the West coast. He just texted me asking if I thought United would let him come back.

How times have changed.

Sled

I'm not sure what the actual percentages are today vs. during COVID, but no...percentages don't work that way. Generally speaking, percentages taken serially are multiplicative not additive. Here's a simple example:

- You have $100 to start with. You decide to play roulette at the casino this weekend.
- You earn a 30% return, so now you have $130. You take this and put it in your piggy bank.
- Next weekend you go back to the casino to play roulette again.
- This time you have a 30% loss. 30% of $130 = 0.3*$130 = $39....so you lose $39.
- This means you take the $130 from your piggy bank, and subtract $39 = $91 (so the dollar amounts are additive: $100+$30-$39)
- However, if you wanted to get the final amount in one step using percentages you would need to multiply, so: 100% * 130% *70% = 100/100 * 130/100 * 70/100 = 100*130*70 / 1,000,000 = 91/100 = 91%
(or...1.0*1.3*.7 = .91).
- The word "percent" is derived from Latin "per centum" which means "by one hundred"

Now back to the bid....where everyone is going to be a 75FO.

Linepilot63

I’d have about 4000 below me at United if I had stayed. I tried to go back and the answer was no. I tried before I was even finished with ITU here. I was told to reapply, but at that time I didn’t feel it was worth starting over again. Needless to say I never thought I’d actually consider going back and being 4000 junior to my class mates I was hired with, but here we are. This is my worst nightmare and more. And once again, SCOPE. This isn’t about an inevitable system bid we all saw coming.

If I were still there I’d be ~20% NB ORD FO, or ~85% ORD WB FO. Both things I never thought would happen in ORD in the year 2023, but now I just get to have nightmares about it, during the day, because I’m hub turning at night.

C2078

Holy crap. Your unreal and tunnel vision is clearly clouding your judgment when your own peers are not nearly as optimistic or realistic as you. Zero credibility, only whimsical hopes 🙄. Nobody can take Shaman seriously as his judgment is clearly compromised.

olly

Feel your pain. I was a 1999 UAL hire and a 2003 furloughee with 24% of the list under me.. Went back to DoD for 3 years, thinking UA would get back to contract 2000. Saw that was never gonna happen and went to FDX. Purple nugget MD11 ANC new hire 2006. excessed to 727 FE in 2010. 2008 recession, 4.A.2.b, age 65vlaw, FDX parks all 3 man cockpits no hiring for 3-4 years. It was a lost decade of stagnation and regression.

FXLAX

Go listen to the DRIVE webinar. They were asked this question and the answer was a 30% reduction from the post pandemic reductions. And they answered that very proudly.

MX727

Quick spreadsheet with the numbers. Someone posted that using the max numbers that we would be overstaffed, we wouldn't. Negative numbers mean a gain in that seat. At the end of it all we are between 192 overstaffed and 134 understaffed. With planned retirements, pretty sure everyone's jobs are safe, just not their current seat.

Merle Haggard

Take a look at the spreadsheet in the previous post. MX727 came up with roughly the same numbers. They're gonna run with about 380 57 Captains, 40-50 of which are pay only so 340 effectively. That means probably 200ish regular lines. 480 FO's leaves 280 FOs on secondary or reserve lines at min BLG.

They overhired. According to the bid they have 200 too many and they're going to push that excess from the most expensive to the least expensive seat. We'll see how far they get into it before the tide turns (it always does eventually)

Nucflash

Just getting to your second year there? You gotta split….NOW…for your mental health. Reapply, get hired, put this behind you. I will say that even thinking that you could just “go back” was preposterous.

NoHaz

Who is going to fly all the 767s showing up in the next few years?