Reese

We aren’t anywhere ‘near’ 4a2b.
SAM last month was 75
SAM in Feb is 73
thats a reduction of 2.67%

Flying would have to reduce another 6.8% to reach a SAM of 68/85, THEN stay below there for 2 months.

so WHEN we get to SAM below 68/85 for two months, THEN, 4a2b gets implemented.

Then the SAM has to fall another 5.8% from 68 to 64, stay there for 2 months, to enter 4a2c.

BUT, before any min BLGs get adjusted, they have to bring 85% of all lines to within 13CHs of each other. And 95% of all lines within 16CHs.

There is currently a 18-19CH spread between 777 and MD/AB/757.

which means, if all fleets now trend downward in unison, they still have to spread the love quite a bit before any reduction in min BLGs happen since there is currently that 18-19CH spread between 85% of lines.

MD11 is currently staffed at 16-17 pilots per airplane.
Airbus is staffed at 8-9 pilots per airplane.

If MD11 sees a drastic reduction of 7.5hr+ flights, it quickly becomes the over staffed airplane.

To reiterate, we have to first experience a further 12% overall reduction of flying, THEN stay there for 2 months, THEN spread the love, THEN, we might see a reduction of min BLGs…

PurpleToolBox

I'm not good at public math. What happens when they reduce MD and Airbus airframes, moving those pilots to the 767 and 777? What happens to the spread and SAM?

WearyEyed

And what happens if they announce the closure of a base like say CGN and then outsource the flying? I’d say we could easily see a 12% decline in flying.

We needed better scope language in 2015 and it’s overdue now.

Reese

Not the 100% answer by any means, Im sure there are some caveats. But per the last SIG notes.

Closing CGN, and it's 3894CHs of flying, would only comprise 1.65% of all CHs.

The 757 FLEET, not CGN, not MEM, but all 117 airplanes.
Comprise 27,576CH of the 235,791 total.
That's 11.7%.

Reese

Not the 100% answer by any means, Im sure there are some caveats. But per the last SIG notes.

A300: 10.3%
MD11, all bases: 14.5%
Entire 757 Fleet: 11.7%.

So they could park the entire A300 fleet, 65 airplanes, and we still wouldn't see the 12% that's needed.

But yes, it seems if/when the company parks an additional 60-75 airplanes over the next 2-3 months, or reduce flying CHs by 24k+, we would most assuredly see 4a2c and have our min BLGs adjusted this summer.

opt0712

Man that crew bus driver was right.

0617Ld

Hold on there cowboy…60-75 airplanes. In 2-3 months? Lets not get that ahead of ourselves.

Thrust Hold

He’s sarcastically saying that’s what would take to trigger 4.A.2.c

Not implying in anyway that it’s going to happen.

baldwin

Couldn’t agree more!!

busdriver12

Interesting posts from people who’ve only been at FedEx for a few years. People who have only had a small sample of the life cycle at FedEx and are ready to jump ship.

I retired last year after 26 years at FedEx and a couple of years at American before that. No comparison. I always thought I’d rather be the bottom seniority holder at FedEx than the top at a pax carrier. Easy for me to stay, even during the tough times. Was able to retire at 58 because FedEx still has a pension, definitely couldn’t have done that at AA.

Understand, everything is cyclical. Before you know it, the pax carriers will have a downturn, people will be downgraded and many will be furloughed. This would have happened in 2020 and have been very ugly if both the Trump and Biden administration had let the chips fall as they should, and not ponied up billions of taxpayers dollars. Next time, they might not do so.

You can always improve your life at FedEx with a bit of effort. You can make the best of every situation, whether it’s 4A2B (or C), reserve, being very junior, there are so many ways to work things to your advantage. Pick up good trips that drop into sick time, drop crap trips, check open time often for extra pairings, schedule medical procedures on reserve (but call off sick and pull at least one day). Get a friend who uses mil leave and has a healthy sick bank to pass onto you, get a group of people that you trip trade with (so instead of dropping good trips, you offer them to each other). I could write many paragraphs about how to make your life better, it’s all there at FedEx, no matter your seniority. I never understood why people flew garbage trips, I never did (unless CRS mangled the trip). Never could do any of this at AA, though maybe their rules have changed.