Envoy
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Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
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Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
I went on medical leave prior to my probationary period ending. They extended my pay anniversary an equal amount of time.
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Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
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Sure, if everyone on the seniority list flowed, it'd be ~9 years for a new hire today. However, attrition is the huge unknown. Envoy has been losing 15-20 pilots a month from attrition this past year ... however, the hiring wave at the majors is just kicking off. With American, Delta, United, FedEx, UPS, and all the LCCs hiring en masse, it's likely outside attrition will increase. Future attrition + projected flow = ???
That said, the industry will look so different in 3 years, let alone 9 years, so don't come to Envoy for the flow. It's an insurance policy at best.
That said, the industry will look so different in 3 years, let alone 9 years, so don't come to Envoy for the flow. It's an insurance policy at best.
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Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2000 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 5.82 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
So about 6 years to flow all things remaining constant.
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So there you have it three year flow!
Now take managements back spin. Guys are beating down the door and if we have that much turnover, we can’t afford to give raises. And why should we when we have a three year flow?
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This year attrition was showing at 200
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2200 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 6.5 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2200 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 6.5 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
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From 2012-2014 there's only 135 pilots still on the list. At 15 per month that group will take 9 months. There are 74 pilots still on the list hired in 2015 so that group would take another 4 months. If AA hiring continues, 2020 is the year you see the flow times really fall.
There's no attrition accounted for in those numbers or any pause in AA's new hire classes. A change in either of those variables could push the flow time forward or back.
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