TalkTurkey

Shhhh why don't you just hush your fingers, you fried, spicy meatball.

MKUltra

I don't understand.. Doesn't the pilot group have access to the contract and side letters to know what's going on? We're small enough at pdt that our communication is strong.

FlameNSky

They do. But many unfortunately don't take the time to read it. The Senior pilots tend to be the worst when it comes to this stuff. There could be many explanations for this but I imagine a big contributing factor would be that many of these things don't have a significant impact on their daily life. It can be likened to a junior FO that continues to renew his CFI. Legally he is fully licensed instructor but he probably doesn't keep up with Part 61/141 changes.


A senior E175 Captain is likely someone who got burnt with the flow due to the 9/11 - TWA fiasco, who is now in this 50s and decided long ago to just stay at envoy until retirement. He likely hasn't kept up to date on the flow, new AAG management or anything else other than what line he will bid next month. His opinion on the subject is going to be heavily influenced by his experience with the flow over 15 years ago during the worst major airline hiring recession under a different management team.

AdiosMikeFox

Well, there's that...and the fact that our contract is a crappily organized pile of contact, LOA's, LOU's and whatever else the company has imposed and it's almost impossible to find what you're looking for. None of it cross referenced, and much written in legalese with loopholes that leave you thinking you're in the right until someone pokes a hole in your position by pointing out yet another loophole or caveat. I've wasted a lot of time trying to find things and wind up frustrated. I end up trying to find someone who knows what the rules are, or just call my rep.

Complacency is definitely an issue with our contractual knowledge levels here, but so is apathy (because fly it and grieve it) and the difficulty in locating the correct info.

stbloc

Is the projected flow at 6 years a bunch of smoke? In your opinion how long before a new hire could expect to flow assuming nothing changes contractually or some major economical event.

FlameNSky

The numbers do work. And they are reasonable. (The upgrade projections, not so much) They are dependent on new hire numbers but that is true of any company's upgrade/progression times.

AAG/envoy has already demonstrated that they are willing to increase pilot compensation in order to achieve higher attraction and retention numbers. Of course the pilots and ALPA believe though incentives are inadequate but at least AAG has shown that they will do so. I believe we will continue to see increased efforts to attract pilots, whether it be monetary, QOL improvements or adjustments to the flow, but it will likely never be as much as we would like to see. AAG has the resources, it is just a matter of them feeling that it is needed.

The industry as a whole will be very different in a few years than it is today. How it will change is anyone's guess. Overall though, I think we, collectively, as airline pilots will be in a much better place. All other things being equal, choosing to go to an airline will flow as opposed to one without, affords you an additional opportunity (a back up plan) that you wouldn't have otherwise. As an envoy pilot, you can still apply, interview and get hired just like everyone else. And many do. It is like taking a little extra gas. 100 times you don't need it, but that one time you do, it can make all the difference in the world.

moon

If the minimum allowed # of flows is followed. Then around 6 years is correct, probably a little less for new hires as of now based on the low hiring number overy the last year. Once the after signing group gets started it's about 10% of the pilot group per year flowing over so similar to piedmonts. But this is all based on the faith that management allows those #s to flow over. Some trust others dont.

AdiosMikeFox

Technically, one could do exactly as management says. However, they advertised 300+ flows last year, they made the same prediction this year. We have flowed just over 300 total for over the same time span according to a recent message from the union.

Source:
So when the projections for 2015/16 were well north of 600 and they have just scraped past 300 you can see there is a cause for concern.

I would like to think they could do as they say. I would also like to think we could get new hires enough to keep things moving forward. If there are other tricks up their sleeves to make their promises true, they sure as hell aren't telling us.

daOldMan

Why are you lying to him? Just be honest.

No, the 6 year flow is not true at all. Even AAG and Envoy management stopped quoting those numbers. Flow is at least 10 years.

How is AAG doing with the flow numbers right now? Are you flowing 30 per month, as you expected to?

And what happens with the first group is gone? The flow drops to 35% of new hire classes. Which will take you over 15 years to flow at that point.

Shouldn't Charlie Bucket be a Captain by now? And he is still on reserve as a FO. That is the truth.

moon

I agree the flow hasn't worked as advertised so fsr. However they are finally out of excuses for it to not work. The recalls will be finished in september. The judgement should come with how they treat the flow after that point at a critical staffing situation. If they flow less than required. We will see their long plan game plan. I'm cautiously optimistic.