eaglefly

TIFWIW, but my comments on this forum are simply one persons opinion. I don't think the flow to AA from any of the WO's will "disappear". Envoy certainly won't be gone in a year as there would no way to replace that flying. In fact, it won't be gone in several years for the same reason. They presently cover too much flying to Comair the place that soon.

One scenario to consider might be that one or more of the WO's become subject to a merger or acquisition, either among themselves or involving a non-owned carrier. That would tend to increase flow time due to dilution of flow for present pilots to allow for new pilots to be included. To create a special group of pilots within a pilot group would be too destabilizing IMO, and agreement would be sought (and certainly obtained) to form a new paradigm for future flow. Parker has proved you either play ball his way or be pushed off the field. Other things might be offered to make it more palatable to those who feel they got the shaft. In fact, this scenario occurred in the past with Business Express Airlines. AMR bought them after the Letter 3 flow was executed and then it was subsequently merged into Eagle. Those BizEx pilots took flow slots based on their SLI position which caused heartburn among some legacy Eagle pilots who got pushed further back in line because of it.

Another scenario would keep the WO's separate and the growth of the 2 small ones combined with the contraction by Envoy would result in 3 approximately equal carriers. This too has strong potential to slow the flow at Envoy as it would also be destabilizing to run 1 of the 3 WO's with twice the flow of the other two equal sized carriers. It would likely result in expensive shifting of assets to pinch-hit for others just as Envoy is doing now because temporarily it has the resources to do that. There are multiple scenarios that have the potential to slow the flow at Envoy and thus any projection is simply just as much a guess as it was in 1997.

Yet another scenario might have either the combined WO's or perhaps just Envoy spun off to the shareholders, renamed and considered a "new entrant carrier" as per the APA CBA who then could operate E-190 series aircraft (including transfer of the present 20 from AA) to upwards of 150 aircraft or so (perhaps mixed in with E-175's as well, including the newer higher MGW version). Of course, since under that scenario this operation would likely take a lot of AA flying back again (S-80 domestic and mixed Caribbean/Mexico type stuff), it just could mean little to no flow to AA for awhile as mainline contraction approximates both the rate of retirement and flying transfer to this carrier. It would be a nice end run around APA scope and be quite a formidable competitor against Delta using 717's and 100-seaters at mainline wages or UAL in the same situation. Even SWA couldn't likely match the head-to-head costs of such an operation. I think it would be a big money-maker for the executives and shareholders as well. 150 planes and 1500 pilots isn't destruction of AA mainline, but makes a nice little addition to Parker's competitive arsenal and if the APA squawked, he'd say what he always says, "the contract allows for it and they are just following the contract". Heck, the APA agreed to multiple outsourcing scenarios in the first place.

The last consideration wouldn't be good for flows for a period of time and a logjam might occur due to a new period of AA mainline stagnation, but also other pilots might be more tempted to go to such a new carrier that still has future flow possibilities and fly E-190's, especially if their regional is collapsing. Not sure what the present Envoy CBA says about pay for such aircraft, but previously if no negotiations resulted in a rate, it would go to arbitration and you can be sure an arbitrator would consider this carrier in line with what new upstart carriers could pay and not what legacies pay. I'd expect a $10/hour bump in rates. The senior guys at Envoy would fall all over themselves to do it, for sure. Will this scenario occur ?

Who knows, but you can be sure Parker & Co. have to be considering their options on long term competitive moves and they play their cards close, bluff like crazy and have help in selecting future strategies from very expensive pro's. Personally, I wouldn't even put any money on this table (legacy AA-the future make-up of WO's and the flow-thru) as the ability read that table is presently impossible as there are too many cards left in the deck and the dealer cheats like hell.

boiler07

You keep mentioning the THREE WOs, but until Piedmont actually flies a 145, you might as well consider them caput in a few years. Hell, they can't even get a training program together.

eaglefly

I mention THREE WO's because there ARE three WO's at this time, yes ?

What happens in the future regarding consolidation is part of one of the possible scenarios. If they did go "caput", it would be stupid to throw away hundreds of pilots in a shortage heading toward a bone-dry drought, so in that case it would be them that would be the acquired in an "acquisition". Perhaps there will be two future WO's each the same size with PSA acquiring PDT ?

The possibilities are numerous, thus the flow suggestions by Any of the WO managements are just that, suggestions.

boiler07

You say "throw away", but Parker says "recycle at first year rates".

Like you said, nothing has changed.

ag386

Six in one. Half a dozen in the other. It's the same thing.

I've been at Envoy for around 2.5 years now and I don't speak the utopian dialect that some on here do.

I can say without a doubt though that any of these numbers management has spit out regarding flow are just wild speculation. As it sits now, 9 to 10 years is my prediction for someone to flow hired today. Even that could seriously change when management here realizes they do need pilots to fly their planes.

boiler07

LOL. Sure.

ag386

I know I don't necessarily speak in a "I'm in love with Envoy" vernacular as many of you. It's probably because I'm a bit older than your average newbie at ENY and am not as susceptible to brainwashing.

However, what I've stated is true. I've speculated on the flow time sure. However a cold, hard fact for today is the bottom person flowing right now was an August 1999 hire. 16 year flow.

I don't expect Ric to come through but you gotta ask. Where's The Beef?

eaglefly

Maybe. What you're describing would be an acquisition of assets with an offer of employment. That would be the worse option (the stick), but instead, I think he'd likely also offer a better alternative (the carrot) IF an agreement is reached and then it would simply be an SLI situation. Acceptance of 12/4 with no grandfathering would seem to me to be at the top of the list. That would make it more likely that more of the senior pilots higher then 12th year scale would to move on to AA and those that wouldn't would all be on a cheaper level playing field, which BTW in the NEC scenario would make for some pretty cheap E-190 captains as many would get the scale raise, but their longevity deduction would more then cancel that out.

It's easy to see the dealer has all the cards and that it's a marked deck, but he's not going to tip over the table to beat you. Just something to consider in deciding whether to put your chips on the table and take a chance.

Do you feel lucky ?

Sliceback

A five year flow date, based on growth, can't compare to an X year flow plan based on retirements.

BobJenkins

Using the context to understand the meaning, I think you meant kaput instead of caput. But I defer to your knowledge of what you meant to say...