rokking566

Will the flow time to American increase or decrease over the next five years?

ag386

Very likely increase. If enough pilots leave via flow/attrition, we will reach the point where Envoy will not be able to afford to lose many, or any for that matter. I would expect metering of the flow after the last 824 makes it over to AA.

Currently our flows are 1999 hires. Essentially, at present we have a 16 year flow. I do expect that to drop, however I believe it will likely get down to a 9-10 year flow in the best case scenario. Our upgrades currently sit a bit over 8 years. I too expect these to drop. Perhaps we will see 6 year upgrades in the future. Personally, I see 2010 hires holding Junior Capt slots in 2017. That would drop it to a 7 year upgrade in over a year from now.

rokking566

So the six year flow to AA is bs?

ag386

I'm calling it BS, yes.

BobJenkins

No, it's not BS. You are probably unaware that the ag38(X) accounts are just duplicate accounts of a troublemaker here at APC.

If you want to get an idea of the flow to AA, look at this page:
American Airlines | AirlinePilotCentral.com

Scroll down to the very bottom, and you will get an idea of the mandatory retirements by year. This does not take into account inactive pilots nor attrition (probably negligible).

Of course, this may change if the retirement age gets modified.

There are those that doubt the flow timeline, but no one can predict for sure, actually. I think it is possible, based on the little I know about Envoy, and talking to people a lot smarter than me. There are several factors to consider that people outside Envoy probably don't know enough about to be making any claims.

Skyvector

ag386 is a troll. He doesn't work at Envoy and I'm sorry you had to interact with him. If you want a serious answer, PM me or anyone else who actually works at Envoy.

eaglefly

You'll get no certainties here on this question, only opinions. Here's another; No one (and I mean NO ONE) can make any reasonable assumption an Envoy new-hire of today will flow in X years, especially over half a decade from now. Same with PDT or PSA. Too many variables, like what becomes of Envoy (or the others) as the next year or two unfolds, what outside situations impact the industry and what AA does regarding its size and future need for pilots where retirement numbers don't necessarily dictate hiring requirements.

Will an Envoy new-hire of today flow in 6 years ir less ?

Maybe, maybe not. All the AAG flow pojections are nothing more then gambling odds in Vega$. You may win or you may lose.

egl2fdx

He/she is right. Ask our 1999 hires.

RawHide

6 years is best case scenario. Based on mandatory retirements at AA. Assuming each one is replaced, based on envoys flow percentage and rick even added in some outside attrition at envoy. Is that possible? Yes. But I would plan for longer and if it happens it will be a pleasant surprise.

eaglefly

Some have claimed I am simply disgruntled because "my" flow didn't work out (which it actually did considering the alternatives) and it took a decade to actually transfer. That happened because of two things, first, the unanticipated outside forces (9/11) that impacted this industry AND second, the actions of the entities that controlled/influenced the mechanism itself, that being A. my own managements situation in the first half of that decade (a similar one present Envoy management is in, only worse) where they ensured the flow went as slow as possible and B., the actions of an opposing union (APA) who then impeded my flow (and ultimately attempted to cancel it altogether) in the latter portion.

Point being, 6 years is a LONG time considering the outside political and economic forces present nowadays and significant risk is there for another negative impact on what is a cyclical industry and present AAG and Envoy managements aren't likely on the same long-term page, so what AAG has planned for Envoy in the next year or two could significantly alter the flow rate for present Envoy pilots. Some cry that "things are different now" and that is folly and hope. Things are NOT different now and in fact, very much the same. Will it take a decade like me for a Envoy new-hire of today to flow to AA ?

Again, it's simply a WAG, but I would guess no, not that long unless something truly unforeseen occurs. But hanging your head on a 6 year promise is shaky at best, IMO. BTW, when the original flow (Letter 3) was sold to us in 1997, we were told that ALL present Eagle pilots were projected to be able to flow to AA within 5 years. Sound familiar ?

For accuracy reference regarding that then claim, by 2010 (roughly 13 years after that claim), only about 125 Eagle pilots had actually flowed to AA property (out of 1500-2000 in the window at the time of that claim ?). Clearly, it is running better now, but again, I think that's simply a by-product of a very fluid situation present at both mainline AA and the AA Eagle WO's which will become less fluid by the end of 2016 where major changes will alter the flow rate to a more steady, but ultimately slower process then present, at least for those at Envoy under the PPA. Clearly, there are not enough new-hires to meet such a flow strictly from the Eagle WO's and that component of this equation is only likely to become worse.