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Old 11-29-2015, 04:48 PM
  #341  
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What I've been saying, repeatedly, is that almost nobody on the property has a chance of making the 2.5 and 6. Nobody.

Unless they walk on the property tomorrow.

There's no point in comparing the pilots on the property now to those wh get hired when things start moving. Us here now? We got the shaft. Long upgrades, long reserve, etc. We got screwed. Those who are hired when things move quickly will be the douche nozzles we hate. A month on reserve, 2-3 years to captan. Hired at a major 4-6 years later. We'll be the bit chy 50 year old captain complaining of the sh it we had to deal with after 9/11 and the guy next to us will be a 27 year old major FO looking at a great career not knowing how crappy things can be.

Unless you're eaglefly. Constantly telling people stuff they already know, pis sing them off because he treats them like idiots. I've got more hours in the flight levels than you've been out of diapers, son.
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Old 11-29-2015, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by AdiosMikeFox
What I've been saying, repeatedly, is that almost nobody on the property has a chance of making the 2.5 and 6. Nobody.

Unless they walk on the property tomorrow.

There's no point in comparing the pilots on the property now to those wh get hired when things start moving. Us here now? We got the shaft. Long upgrades, long reserve, etc. We got screwed. Those who are hired when things move quickly will be the douche nozzles we hate. A month on reserve, 2-3 years to captan. Hired at a major 4-6 years later. We'll be the bit chy 50 year old captain complaining of the sh it we had to deal with after 9/11 and the guy next to us will be a 27 year old major FO looking at a great career not knowing how crappy things can be.

Unless you're eaglefly. Constantly telling people stuff they already know, pis sing them off because he treats them like idiots. I've got more hours in the flight levels than you've been out of diapers, son.

being someone who could be in class in january, I hope you are right, but I am still skeptical of the whole thing. A few posts back someone was talking about envoy being able to staff pilots determining wether or not people could flow, do you have anything to say to that?
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:00 PM
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What with people looking to go to the majors, would a better move be for someone to go to a regional with a fast upgrade, like PSA, TSA, Go Jet, Mesa, or whoever else says they have the upgrade, or instead wait to see if the upgrade is short enough at envoy to cash in there? Would be getting the 121 TPIC be worth it else where, and then just applying off the street?

and beyond that if the upgrade times are not as advertised at envoy does any current employee know of people getting hired from the right seat into any other operators outside the regionals?
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:03 PM
  #344  
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Originally Posted by Jammy
As a potential applicant I want to believe the flow will work as advertised- even if the pace is slower than 2.5/6yrs. It looks like the flow is based on AA hiring, not Envoy newhires, correct? Does anyone have any insight into what happens if Envoy cannot hire enough people to support the amount of people flowing? Is it spelled out in the contract or should I be concerned that whatever is the plan now can and will change when necessary. It seems to make more sense to try to attract pilots from other regionals to AA rather than flush out your own list.
One misconception is the assumtion that AA will hire an equal number of pilots that retire for every year in the applicable future. Another is the assumption Envoy can attract 850 pilots from anywhere during 2017 and the first half of 2018. That's a boatload ofmpilots and would be an eye-opening record considering the available pool. Many Envoy pilots had no plans to leave Envoy a year or so ago when Envoy was contracting because once there for a few years, many felt they were too committed to risk starting over at another regional and thus wern't willing to cut and run when Envoy was in an inverted flat spin. Likewise, I think most non-Envoy regional pilots aren't going to shoot craps on going to Envoy and starting at the bottom, certainly not present non-Envoy regional captains. Sure, a few here and there might deem the risk acceptable, but most won't. Envoy ALPA even acknowledged that whether they like it or not by attempting to get management to agree to a competitive pilot poaching scheme to jump start that which they knew to be a marginal chance of success without it.

If Envoy can't match attrition both flow and non-flow, it again contracts and a smaller airline needs fewer captains and a contracting airline is more prone to stagnation, especially with many pilots who themselves feel to committed to starting over at another regional themselves.

There is no yes or no answer and it all comes down to how each potentially interested gambler considers the risks of this table. Only they can decide if they're wiling to "ante up" at this table or consider the odds too much in favor of the house. Personally, I would want to see what cards the dealer already has displayed (whether the claims made seem viable), before I put my ante up.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:04 PM
  #345  
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The flow is a contractual provision just as payrates, min guarantee, vacation weeks etc are contractual provisions. The company could choose to ignore it just as Republic could tell its pilots it can't afford the new payrates and revert to the old payrates. But if Republic did that, what would happen? The staffing shortage would get dramatically worse as a huge exodus would ensue. The Flow is no different. They are using it as in incentive to attract applicants. Even if staffing becomes critical, there is no allowances that permits them to stop the flow. Beyond the contractual requirements, it would be foolish for them to stop the flow because doing so, even in a critical staffing situation, would make the shortage even worse as guys would bail and there would be no more incentive for new hires.

We are not yet as small as Parker wants us to be. We currently have just under 2000 pilots and their long term plan for envoy is 1500. If we have more, great and we will get more flying but until we get close to that desired number, Parker doesn't see our current compensation package as a problem. As we get closer to that number though, I think that they will start offering a Endeavor Style bonus program. One way or another though, Parker will add whatever financial incentive is necessary to staff the airline.

In an extreme case: United, Delta and AA have already shifted some of the routes formally handled by their regional feeders back to mainline in an answer to the reduced regional lift. In fact, Parker recently discussed during a public meeting about whether they will add more Embraer 190s to the mainline operation or add more Airbus 319/320s. My personal opinion is if they cannot attract enough applicants to envoy and they do not want to add any more financial incentives to attract new hires, they will allow envoy to shrink while adding more mainline aircraft which in the end, means more flow opportunities at envoy. As the flow quickens, envoy will become more attractive and the new hires will come. Eventually market forces will equal out the balance.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:11 PM
  #346  
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Originally Posted by waker92
What with people looking to go to the majors, would a better move be for someone to go to a regional with a fast upgrade, like PSA, TSA, Go Jet, Mesa, or whoever else says they have the upgrade, or instead wait to see if the upgrade is short enough at envoy to cash in there? Would be getting the 121 TPIC be worth it else where, and then just applying off the street?

and beyond that if the upgrade times are not as advertised at envoy does any current employee know of people getting hired from the right seat into any other operators outside the regionals?
Look, you are asking a lot of "What if" questions. Being at the ENY I can tell you its starting to improve but no one really knows what will happen if we can't hire. Do I believe the company will flow the place dry? Not a chance.

I would love to see everyone here in the new hire classes in Irving, but you need to look at it as what will work in YOUR situation in the short and longer term. No need to go somewhere, commuting across the country for the chance at a year more TPIC or Flow.

I personally do not feel like 3-500 more hours of TPIC matters right now looking at the legacy hiring patterns. Be aware you are competing with guys that have been at places like ENY, stuck with no movement and have 3-5K hours TPIC and FO's with thousands and thousands of SIC time all with Apps and interviews at the BIG 3. The only advantage you might get for a quick upgrade other then the pay bump is a better shot at going to an LLC faster. But many FO's have been going there as well with no TPIC time in their books.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:16 PM
  #347  
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Originally Posted by FlameNSky
The flow is a contractual provision just as payrates, min guarantee, vacation weeks etc are contractual provisions. The company could choose to ignore it just as Republic could tell its pilots it can't afford the new payrates and revert to the old payrates. But if Republic did that, what would happen? The staffing shortage would get dramatically worse as a huge exodus would ensue. The Flow is no different. They are using it as in incentive to attract applicants. Even if staffing becomes critical, there is no allowances that permits them to stop the flow. Beyond the contractual requirements, it would be foolish for them to stop the flow because doing so, even in a critical staffing situation, would make the shortage even worse as guys would bail and there would be no more incentive for new hires.

We are not yet as small as Parker wants us to be. We currently have just under 2000 pilots and their long term plan for envoy is 1500. If we have more, great and we will get more flying but until we get close to that desired number, Parker doesn't see our current compensation package as a problem. As we get closer to that number though, I think that they will start offering a Endeavor Style bonus program. One way or another though, Parker will add whatever financial incentive is necessary to staff the airline.

In an extreme case: United, Delta and AA have already shifted some of the routes formally handled by their regional feeders back to mainline in an answer to the reduced regional lift. In fact, Parker recently discussed during a public meeting about whether they will add more Embraer 190s to the mainline operation or add more Airbus 319/320s. My personal opinion is if they cannot attract enough applicants to envoy and they do not want to add any more financial incentives to attract new hires, they will allow envoy to shrink while adding more mainline aircraft which in the end, means more flow opportunities at envoy. As the flow quickens, envoy will become more attractive and the new hires will come. Eventually market forces will equal out the balance.
Could you direct me to Parker's statements that the specific plan for Envoy is for 1500 pilots and that Envoy's pilot costs are competitive considering Envoy's hundreds of senior captains on 18-year pay ?

Just trying to quantify whether these particular claims are substantive or assumption. Right now on Eaglelounge, one of the main topics of frustration is the fact AAG has yet to even define Envoy's fleet plan or flying allocations for 2016, let alone beyond that. Traditionally, that would be done by the end of October in the year prior and so far nothing.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:19 PM
  #348  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Could you direct me to Parker's statements that the specific plan for Envoy is for 1500 pilots and that Envoy's pilot costs are competitive considering Envoy's hundreds of senior captains on 18-year pay ?

Just trying to quantify whether these particular claims are substantive or assumption. Right now on Eaglelounge, one of the main topics of frustration is the fact AAG has yet to even define Envoy's fleet plan or flying allocations for 2016, let alone beyond that. Traditionally, that would be done by the end of October in the year prior and so far nothing.
Prob in the next 2-4 as the top guys on the 18 year are in the 824 so they should mostly be retired or flowed to AA. I know the talk and rumor was 1500. Don't know if it was "Officially" stated somewhere.

The only thinking on the fleet plan still is RAH is F-ing up the party for everyone with trying to get new rates to pay the pilots.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:20 PM
  #349  
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Originally Posted by SkyWago
Look, you are asking a lot of "What if" questions. Being at the ENY I can tell you its starting to improve but no one really knows what will happen if we can't hire. Do I believe the company will flow the place dry? Not a chance.

I would love to see everyone here in the new hire classes in Irving, but you need to look at it as what will work in YOUR situation in the short and longer term. No need to go somewhere, commuting across the country for the chance at a year more TPIC or Flow.

I personally do not feel like 3-500 more hours of TPIC matters right now looking at the legacy hiring patterns. Be aware you are competing with guys that have been at places like ENY, stuck with no movement and have 3-5K hours TPIC and FO's with thousands and thousands of SIC time all with Apps and interviews at the BIG 3. The only advantage you might get for a quick upgrade other then the pay bump is a better shot at going to an LLC faster. But many FO's have been going there as well with no TPIC time in their books.
Some well balanced points here. Everyone's situation is different and choices should be based on the more realistic and tangible factors.
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Old 11-29-2015, 05:23 PM
  #350  
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Originally Posted by AdiosMikeFox
What I've been saying, repeatedly, is that almost nobody on the property has a chance of making the 2.5 and 6. Nobody.

Unless they walk on the property tomorrow.

There's no point in comparing the pilots on the property now to those wh get hired when things start moving. Us here now? We got the shaft. Long upgrades, long reserve, etc. We got screwed. Those who are hired when things move quickly will be the douche nozzles we hate. A month on reserve, 2-3 years to captan. Hired at a major 4-6 years later. We'll be the bit chy 50 year old captain complaining of the sh it we had to deal with after 9/11 and the guy next to us will be a 27 year old major FO looking at a great career not knowing how crappy things can be.

Unless you're eaglefly. Constantly telling people stuff they already know, pis sing them off because he treats them like idiots. I've got more hours in the flight levels than you've been out of diapers, son.
Too much emotion here and more "eaglefly the boogyman" baloney.
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