daOldMan

Hmm...I believe Sherlock Holmes would call that a clue.

AdiosMikeFox

We'll never know what the puzzle piece means until the picture appears.

waker92

Can anyone shed some light on the projected upgrade times. 2.5 years seems a bit too good to be true, if anyone has any opinions about what a new hire could expect I'd appreciate the input.

I understand that there are 7+ year FO's still at the company, but I have also heard that hiring stopped for a while, then started back up a few years later leaving current 5 year FO's. Creating gap of a few years upgrade time between just a few numbers in seniority. Is that what is expected to happen with these projected numbers? I don't expect a 2.5 year upgrade but the only thing holding me back from envoy is the possibility of 8 years as an FO. (I understand that is possible anywhere) but knowingly walking into that is not what I'm trying to do, with other airlines proving to have much shorter times.

AdiosMikeFox

Here's the straight-up deal: There Are No Guarantees.

There are some lovely people on this forum that do nothing but bash ENY and say what a load of BS everything is, and there are a few that sell ENY like gold.

Is 2.5 and 6 possible? Hell yes. If we can get the people in the door and AA hires as they have publicly stated, the people on the bottom of the ENY list starting next year will move up like a rocket. Get in the door now. Because in a couple years the list will be packed. The 824 list will change to the protected pilot and then to the remaining flow language, the flow will decrease as the years progress.

Those on the property today and over the next year or two will reap the greatest benefit provided all goes as planned at AA. ENY will be the place to be.

That's the truth, but refer back to my opening statement. Anything can happen, but you gotta ante up sometime.

eaglefly

Here's the straight up deal ; There are no guarantees, but the 2.5 year promise's math doesn't add up.

The prudent advice is to beware of some outstanding Envoy pilots on here telling you what YOU should do like to "anting up". Instead, evaluate for yourself and decide instead of basing anything on what someone else thinks you should do who may have questionable motives.

Caveat Emptor.

AdiosMikeFox

There's a reason this guy's on so many participant's "ignore" list.

Skyvector

This is true.

eaglefly

That's mostly Snake-Oil Salesmen who are enraged in my questioning their motives and tactics want. Most here will notice the critical difference between me and the SOS crowd (AKA the "usual suspects"). That being I don't attempt to coax others what to do regarding any decision to apply or work for Envoy. I don't tell them to "ante up" (but an appropriate term to ASK one to take a risk and gamble). I simply advise them to do their due dilligence and if the claims make sense and work for them, fine, consider Envoy. The term is "Caveat Emptor" and the hope of the SOS crowd is they can get as many members here who may be considering Envoy to block me out and just listen to them.

Now, some of these usual suspects are simply garden variety Envoy pilots and a few others AFAIC are part of a specific anti-labor organization made up of past and present Envoy pilots tasked to go to pilot forums and even get paid for it. These two sub-groups have one thing in common; That is that their interests and motives are NOT the same as those who may come to Envoy now, but theirs or others interests. The fact is that some Envoy pilots NEED as many pilots as possible to come to Envoy NOW because they believe THEIR flow to AA depends on it. They have no intention of staying at Envoy and couldn't care less what occurs there once they eject, only how quickly they can orchestrate their ejection. Thus, their goal is to coax as many suckers, saps, simpletons, dopes, dingleberries and dunces as possible to not thinking for THEMSELVES, but to instead allow THEM to think for YOU.

Can Envoy (or does it really want to) train 850 plus captains (minus any outside attrition to that sub-group) in the 18-month period between 2017 and mid-2018 and not only that hire that many to fill the F/O positions ?

That's what will be required to meet a 2.5 upgrade there now. If you believe that, then that may be one reason to indeed consider Envoy. If Envoy has other quantifiable qualities you seek and you believe they exist there in reality, then apply. My only advice, is don't let hucksters, grifters or the Envoy SOS lure you into not thinking for yourself.

emb145

Currently at Envoy the most junior Captain is a 10/2007 hire. That's over an 8 year upgrade. Just FYI, the current flowthroughs are mid 1999 hires.

To get to a 2.5 year upgrade, about 750 FO's MUST upgrade by the end of 2017. That's about 30 upgrades per month, every month. Starting, well.....now.

In 2015, the vacancy bid for upgrades at Envoy have been around 100 total. That adds up to about 8 per month. I'm talking about a true vacancy or new CA slots. There have been a lot of displacements and shuffling of the deck, but overall, only around 100 total new CA's in 2015.

Lots of people talk about Envoy's classes being packed now and into the future due to this great flowthrough program. It's not bad but based on this history and also the projections everyone posts here, ask yourself. Do you really think this will happen?

Every regional out there is having trouble getting enough bodies right now. That problem will get worse in 2016. A lot of the bodies that some of the upper tier regionals are getting are lateral moving ship jumpers from Expressjet, Great Lakes, even Envoy. Do you think that Envoy will get enough people in the door in 2016 to even ALLOW them to flow 375 which will allow them to upgrade 375? My guess is that's a very tall order and unlikely to happen.

Jammy

As a potential applicant I want to believe the flow will work as advertised- even if the pace is slower than 2.5/6yrs. It looks like the flow is based on AA hiring, not Envoy newhires, correct? Does anyone have any insight into what happens if Envoy cannot hire enough people to support the amount of people flowing? Is it spelled out in the contract or should I be concerned that whatever is the plan now can and will change when necessary. It seems to make more sense to try to attract pilots from other regionals to AA rather than flush out your own list.