AGDP

Is there a trickle down effect or do the regionals bleed enough pilots / gain new aircraft that they should continue hiring?

Njflyguy

When AA was hiring, they were only taking a few flows per month from the 3 WO's. So now that they are halting hiring for the moment, there obviously won't be flows. This should only matter to those who have been on property for 5+ years though. You need to look at the macro economic picture of the majors. They're all either paused or slowed hiring. Spirit pilots have flooded the majors with resumes in light of the company's financial positions, which now pushes low time regional pilots who would have been a shoe in 3 years ago down the list of candidates.

Some (like DL and AA) still have a lot of retirements coming in the next 5 years, and they all have big orders through the end of the decade so the long term hiring is still better than it ever was before 2020. Just not what some were thinking was going to be the norm after witnessing 2021-2022 when they signed up for their first flying lesson and is now close to being eligible for an interview somewhere.

liquefaction

I've flown with a number of captains that were supposed to flow earlier this year that are now going to be waiting until November at the earliest. FO hiring at Envoy has also slowed considerably despite taking delivery of new aircraft every week. Definitely some correlation but I wouldn't say causation. The union shows very low attrition this year (both flow to mainline/other airlines). Seems that the company is projecting that we are well staffed for the near future and as a result ended the large bonus for high time FOs and DECs. I'm sure hiring will pick up again in the Fall to support the new metal coming to property next year. Though as the guy above me said, Spirit/Frontier/Southwest FOs are all throwing apps in for all the legacies which will further slow attrition at the regionals.