Class Drop List
10-07-2021, 01:13 PM
#1761
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
That's the point. IF they are flying, it won't be a WO doing it. It's why the 145 sims are being moved off property. Those planes will be gone in 2 years.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like Sterling get a CPA from AA to expand their existing E145 program. Wexford Capital is behind them; Wayne Heller (formerly Republic) is running things there on the 121 side. lots of things in play out there that could surprise people. Heck, just to show the myriad of options, AAG could even just transfer all the employees a few at a time to either PSA or ENY. Announce a downsizing, and offer transfer or furlough. Planes and excess equipment go to Sterling under a new CPA.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like Sterling get a CPA from AA to expand their existing E145 program. Wexford Capital is behind them; Wayne Heller (formerly Republic) is running things there on the 121 side. lots of things in play out there that could surprise people. Heck, just to show the myriad of options, AAG could even just transfer all the employees a few at a time to either PSA or ENY. Announce a downsizing, and offer transfer or furlough. Planes and excess equipment go to Sterling under a new CPA.
But, just like anything, they can and do change their minds more quickly and more often than…
10-07-2021, 03:13 PM
#1763
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,592
Mathematically 10+ years. Realistically 7-7.5, unless things change. Things will change. The current model is unsustainable.
10-07-2021, 05:20 PM
#1764
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
You joined APC in 2014, so I cannot validate anything you said in 2012.
I have a hard time believing other regional will have E145s flying for AA. No other regional fly E145s for AA. Why would they add a handful? What is your rationale?
Last edited by TransWorld; 10-07-2021 at 05:38 PM.
10-08-2021, 05:15 AM
#1765
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,224
And I joined APC in 2016, so you can validate what I said after that point. I did not just wake up and start having opinions at that point. I can even go back and remember predicting the 727 was going the way of the dodo bird with TWA. That was the first sim I sat in, back in 1970.
You joined APC in 2014, so I cannot validate anything you said in 2012.
I have a hard time believing other regional will have E145s flying for AA. No other regional fly E145s for AA. Why would they add a handful? What is your rationale?
You joined APC in 2014, so I cannot validate anything you said in 2012.
I have a hard time believing other regional will have E145s flying for AA. No other regional fly E145s for AA. Why would they add a handful? What is your rationale?
As some pointed out there is a market for the tiny jet. Just not big enough for them to want to run another fleet type, training program, bids, and the whole mess that goes with that. 2024 was their drop date from back in the bankruptcy and with the sims moving out (and not to PDT) they look to still be on the same timeline after all.
10-08-2021, 05:25 AM
#1766
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Position: Feeder of Amber
Posts: 229
I would stay away from PDT, their current business model doesn’t allow for much growth or sustainability. As for PSA vs ENY it depends where you live.
10-08-2021, 08:00 AM
#1767
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,224
And I joined APC in 2016, so you can validate what I said after that point. I did not just wake up and start having opinions at that point. I can even go back and remember predicting the 727 was going the way of the dodo bird with TWA. That was the first sim I sat in, back in 1970.
You joined APC in 2014, so I cannot validate anything you said in 2012.
I have a hard time believing other regional will have E145s flying for AA. No other regional fly E145s for AA. Why would they add a handful? What is your rationale?
You joined APC in 2014, so I cannot validate anything you said in 2012.
I have a hard time believing other regional will have E145s flying for AA. No other regional fly E145s for AA. Why would they add a handful? What is your rationale?
https://viewfromthewing.com/american...llion-in-debt/
10-08-2021, 08:51 AM
#1768
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: Resigned
Posts: 1,547
Where are you getting 7 years from? That assumes 5 years worth of flows worth of attrition for a new hire now. Seems highly speculative.
If you assume 20/mo new hires flow in something like 12 years. Throw in an AA bankruptcy and you could be at 15+.
If you assume 20/mo new hires flow in something like 12 years. Throw in an AA bankruptcy and you could be at 15+.
10-08-2021, 09:02 AM
#1769
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
I don’t think that much attrition is out of the question. First year attrition is always high. Those that don’t make it through training, decide it’s not for them or just needing to get current again. Then all those leaving for ULLCs and other sectors. First couple of years still pretty high attrition. But you are right another Black Swan event could add years to things and depress the market, or as some have speculated end the regional model, whether in a good or bad manner.
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