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Predictions on next vacancy/displacement bid?

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Old 03-20-2018, 10:28 AM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by CrowneVic
The bid opens March 27.
Where did you hear this? Do you know how many slots they are looking to fill ?
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Old 03-21-2018, 08:03 AM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by Pedro4President
I think we can all agree we won't see displacements like last the last bid.

However, I think we might be a bit shocked to see how many pilots of varying seniority will get displaced especially if "sport" bidding takes place.

I wonder how many pilots are bidding Reserve to delay upgrading. How many RTP guys took more delays in getting through training and building time due to training. Some pilots transferred to DFW sooner than other and LGA FOs could have been building time faster holding a better line than a reserve pilot in DFW.

If I was a betting man I'd bet your explanation will be right. I just wouldn't bet too much on it because it so difficult to predict how people bid.
The other "wild card" (since you brought up betting) is the summer flight file from AAG. The fact that the company is silent on it, and hiring people into a pool, does not look good.

The company says they have too many FOs, but as the displacements start CA training, the numbers will work out. The 2 questions I have are: what about the increased summer flying, and how does the company justify metering flow at 25 if they aren't hiring? It "feels" like the company isn't getting the amount of summer flying they were expecting.

I would normally say "let's see what ALPA has to say about it", but they have been as silent as the company.
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Old 03-21-2018, 08:43 AM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by LowValueAviator
how does the company justify metering flow at 25 if they aren't hiring?

I
Pretty simple man. Flows come from the captain list. The captain list is extremely short and the entire reason they aren’t hiring FO’s right now. If they increased flow it would only make the problem worse. Also Envoy is still hiring, just not FO’s.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:56 AM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by flysooner9
Pretty simple man. Flows come from the captain list. The captain list is extremely short and the entire reason they aren’t hiring FO’s right now. If they increased flow it would only make the problem worse. Also Envoy is still hiring, just not FO’s.
As I understand, they are still hiring FOs. Just not “off the street”. There should still be a few off the street on Monday. After that it will only be CQs, RTPs and Cadets for a while. No idea how long that will last. Probably until the Spring 2016 hires start getting their 1000 hours to upgrade.
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:13 AM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude
As I understand, they are still hiring FOs. Just not “off the street”. There should still be a few off the street on Monday. After that it will only be CQs, RTPs and Cadets for a while. No idea how long that will last. Probably until the Spring 2016 hires start getting their 1000 hours to upgrade.
So, on that note, does anyone have any idea where different airframes/ bases stack up flight time wise? I realize it will be somewhat skewed since there were classes of only 175 for a bit and also LGA and MIA weren’t even players then.

Just curious, as there are guys always want to go where the flying is. But where has it really been?
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Old 03-21-2018, 05:19 PM
  #56  
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So a buddy says Endeavor will award CA if someone has 950 hr 121 time or equivalent at vacancy close. They then only need 975 hr before class. Wonder how long it'll be before Envoy tries that move to scoop up bodies?
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Old 03-21-2018, 06:24 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by uavking
So a buddy says Endeavor will award CA if someone has 950 hr 121 time or equivalent at vacancy close. They then only need 975 hr before class. Wonder how long it'll be before Envoy tries that move to scoop up bodies?
I’m hearing the same. That started in February I believe.
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:54 AM
  #58  
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I wonder how much time the company actually spends thinking about this. As soon as LGA happened, everyone close to CA mins (that I've talked to, anyway) slammed on the brakes and started bidding reserve to avoid the upgrade. It seems to me that if they did something to make LGA base more attractive their problems would disappear. That place is poison, all my time builder soon-to-be 1500 hour friends have totally eliminated Envoy from consideration because of it, and it will weigh on recruitment forever unless closed or senior (lol)
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Old 03-22-2018, 01:03 PM
  #59  
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LGA is total poison. Cost of living there is easily 30% to 50% higher compared to DFW, MIA or ORD. Add in commute time, cost of car ownership / parking and it's a non starter for a lot of people when they have choices.

Labor follows the same economic winds of supply and demand. The QOL hit of being a perpetual junior captain in LGA isn't covered by a $45,000 bonus. It might not even be covered by a $150K bonus. We need to go outside the box.

They are going to need to get very creative if they want to solve this problem. Perhaps a satellite base thats an LGA outstation with every trip starting and ending with a deadhead. Cost of living in this city is lower and it's a desirable place to live. Dont know where that would be perhaps something in NC or PA. Maybe an hours flight time from LGA. No clue on how reserve would be staffed or what would happen with the existing people in LGA but something has gotta give. Gone are the days where people are falling all over themselves to come here. Sure we have a zillion FOs but thats not what we need and the HVA program isn't bringing in the numbers to right the ship.

Union has been a little more mum then I would like and not sure if they are in flow coast mode or what. It's in everyone's interest, top to bottom that we solve this problem. Most people are here for the flow, unless this captain problem is solved they will continue to dig their heels in on increasing the flow and exasperating the captain problem.
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Old 03-22-2018, 01:11 PM
  #60  
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It is an easy solution. We need to maintain a smaller size airline that can be sustainably managed. Growth costs money. If they want growth, it will require seniority numbers at AA. At what point do all the bonuses and displacements make it no longer fiscally attractive to operate Envoy separate from AA
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