Sheg0theD

We got these numbers today..



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bigtime209

It doesn’t take into account hypothetical attrition. There’s no way of guessing how much attrition Envoy will see over the next few years.

NoValueAviator

The rumor mill is spinning fast around the overstaffed condition of the airline, but I can't help but wonder if they're not just hiring to offset planned attrition while they hold the line on pay, QOL, 10+ year flow, etc. instead of coming up to what is becoming the new normal.

TransWorld

Thanks for the numbers.

81 (combined flow of 50 and attrition of 31) in 2 months. If that rate continues, (multiple times 6), 486 will leave over the year.

486 divided by 2366 pilots means 1/5th leaving over the course of the year. Take it for what it is worth.

To address the original question, the projected number of years to flow, as I understand it, assumes no attrition. That, in my opinion, is overly conservative.

cr700

^^^^This. The haters on here neglect to point this out when claiming an "8 year or greater flow." The truth is the flow is much, much closer to the 6 year mark for a new hire today when taking the above into account.

Tellheritwasntu

The flow also takes into account that we will be sending pilots every single month. Pilots don't flow in December, and in fact we had two months last year where no one flowed.

highfarfast

You really can’t take attrition numbers and use them in any meaningful way on a projection because the only attrition that matters for flow is the attrition that happens senior to YOU and that number is different for every pilot on property.

Anyone new to this forum, ignore this guy.

Sorry, had to add the word there I’m sure you meant. But also wanted to point out that SO FAR, the union’s projection which assumes minimum flow every single month overcompensates for the attrition mentioned above such that everyone on property has seen their projected flow date extended further out. If attrition has really been an issue making the projection overly conservative, we’d see our projected flow dates shrinking. That has never happened YET. I’m open to the idea that it can change as the hiring picks up more at the majors but I have no idea how anyone can come up with a projection for that.

AZPilotMike

Proof? You can’t just throw that out there.

flysooner9

You guys are crazy to think attrition won’t be 80/month of greater. The major hiring at the legacy’s is just getting started. I would put money on the 31 non flow attrition to easily stay the same but probably increase.

highfarfast

I hope you’re right but I don’t think I’ve flown with a single captain that is actively and agressively keeping their apps up to date. They are either ‘too close to flow to care’ or ‘I’m here because I don’t have a degree and want to work at a major’ or ‘AA or bust and AA barely hires OTS’ or ‘lifers’. Generally, flow is making this pilot group lazy with their career advancement so while I think attrition will pick up I think it will be lower here than at airlines without flow. AND, as long as the union’s projections keep showing to be conservative (shown by flow date moving further out with each update), I’m not counting on it being any shorter than the union projections.