SilentLurker

How to solve our FLOW problems...

http://<a href="https://m.youtube.co...bYWhdLO43Q</a>


The only conceptual way to stop our “metered” FLOW problem. Complaining will do nothing.

TransWorld

Food for thought. . .

Boeing’s projection for the next 20 years is an AVERAGE of almost 6,000 new hire pilots per year for North America.

Considering military, other commercial flying, regional lifers, Canada, etc. rolled in this; the projected number of hires from the regionals would be 4,000 to 5,000 new hire pilots per year to the majors.

There are 20,000 regional pilots. That would mean hiring would be 1/5 to 1/4 of that total per year. In other words, 5 to 4 years average from new hire at a regional to being hired at a major.

With current estimates here of 9 to 10 years for flow to AA, do you think things will stay like that? Do you think it is sustainable, or do you think something will have to change?

Your thoughts??

AZPilotMike

Envoy is a money maker for AA. They won’t simply gut us in order to fill demand. What will happen however is increase off the street new hires to hire numbers than currently.

TransWorld

Do you think there will be a significant increase in OTS hires from Envoy, not waiting for flow?

AZPilotMike

That I can’t say but I would assume so. Honestly if things go as planned, the flow may be one of the slower routes to a mainline job.

One of two things will happen in my opinion.

1. Envoy will hold current rates with the flow being a main compensator. This will cause lots of pilots to leave for greener pastors, bigger types and better pay/QOL at an LCC. These pilots will the attempt to jump the flow or simply enjoy the QOL and seniority at their respective airline.

2. Envoy will increase rates enough to keep pilots hanging around for the flow which is increasing day by day. This is the best thing for Envoy to stop the constant ups and downs of hiring.

Personally option 1 is the most likely for the pilots in the middle of the seniority list if you ask me.

E175 Driver

Hopefully you guys are using the flow as a back up. At least I am.

Knobcrk1

Did they really start a whole new thread about flow? That is literally the only thing the usual suspects talk about on the Envoy thread. That’s all that Envoy is good for now. Thinking about the flow every day. All day. I mean come on. You won’t see the flow for years. Around 8 years for new hires...

bigtime209

That makes absolutely no sense. The flow will in no way slow you down from getting to a major. It's there if you need it. The opportunity is still there to get PIC time as quickly as your heart desires to be able to beef up your resume to try to get on with Delta, United, Fedex, UPS, and SWA. And if you wanna talk about getting on with AA specifically, your chances at getting on outside of the flow without being military are pretty slim anyway. In 2017, AA hired a whopping 60 pilots that weren't prior military or flows. So yes, if you're banking 100% on the flow getting you to AA, then you've got a long wait ahead of you. But flying at Envoy and keeping the flow in your back pocket will do you no extra harm or extra good at getting you to one of the other majors more so than flying for any regional. Now, the flow may not be a the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for someone hired today, but saying that the flow is in any way a negative thing to have is absurd.

TransWorld

You should read my post I just made on the thread “Jump the Flow”.

AA plan for 2018 (re-verified by the Schoolhouse last week) is to hire about 275 ADDITIONAL pilots than 2017.

Where are they going to come from? Higher flow numbers? Doubt it.

Higher Mil OTS? Unless someone is sitting on an additional pot of Mil Pilots interested but not being hired or AA wrangles a higher share, doubt it.

So, I conclude much of those 275 ADDITIONAL will come from Civ. OTS. That will mark the first year that Civ OTS will be a sizable percentage. (Maybe one third of total hires.)

And we have not hit the peak of the retirements.

bigtime209

Highly unlikely. But if that helps you sleep better at night then more power to ya. But the fact is there are PLENTY of squadron buddies and other military guys out there still waiting for a call. Civilian OTS hires might increase a bit, but nowhere near the amount that you're hoping they will. AA management has already been on the record at a town hall meeting in the past that they want to secure the majority of non flow slots for military pilots. Not to mention, it's only February and they've already fallen behind on hiring.