HighFlight

What you say is true. But let's examine it a bit closer, with a worst case scenario... A NH is in the first class of this month, Jan 2017. He has no previous 121. He completes training without any hiccups. He's on IOE, blocking time, by April. He is a commuter with a family that he wants to be with. So from April until December 2017, he blocks 60 hours a month, 360TT. In 2018, the flaying remains fairly steady, so he flies remaining 640 hours by October. He puts his bid in, and gets awarded in December, class in January 2019. Now his 2-year CA clock begins ticking. Not eligible for an interview until January 2021. That's 4 years minimum. Now when does he get the interview call? Unknown. Let's assume within 3-6 months. Best case, 4 years total, perhaps 4.5 years.

A little better than the current flow at the AA WOs, but that is purported to be coming down; only time will tell us. And another unknown for us is the pass rate of the DGI. Personally, I have a gut feeling it will be better than the current 61% of the SSP. But I have nothing to base that on other than intuition. Again, time will tell.

To sum it up, waiting years to interview under the DGI is NOT disengous. It's fact. Could it be less than 4 years? With a lot of OT, sure. But I am talking what I think will be an average overall. It could be longer than 4.5, depending on where a person is commuting from and how much time other things take from them. That is a variable one cannot account for in any formula.

Meanwhile, EDV is a great place to work. I look forward to going to work, and enjoy myself while here. QoL is pretty high for me, and thus far I have thoroughly enjoyed just about everyone I have flown with. There are only two CAs whom I wouldn't be excited to fly with again, but both go to DL in a couple of months, so probably won't see them again.

CODs4ever

It doesn't matter if it's a flow or DGI...is the economy were to crash and airlines were to shrink, negating the need to hire, despite the looming retirements:

1) At AA, the "flow up" would cease to happen and possibly work in reverse as a "flow back" the way it did post 9/11 (saw this at Eagle in 2004-2005).

2) Delta would simply cancel the option to interview folks under DGI if they had no need to bring in new hires.

3) The remaining regionals would simply furlough, go out of business, or do whatever they need to stay afloat.

Let's all hope the economy stays strong. Just saying....

Skittles9E

I don't disagree that 4.5 years is a good guess as to a timeline to interview, what I disagreed with was the poster saying even after 24 months as captain that you would have to wait years to interview. I agree with all of your points though.

HighFlight

I think all three of us are saying the same thing. Go back and re-read his post, he didn't say what you think he said. At least I didn't read it that way.

It's all good. And as mentioned above, one hiccup in the economy, and DGI/Flow becomes less than meaningless. Ride the wave while it's out there...

KSCessnaDriver

All of that is predicated on an upgrade at or near 1000 121 time, which, without significant fleet growth, will not happen for people getting hired today.

msprj2

Didn't we start with our first of 14 "new" crj's today? Think that's growth

HighFlight

Without fleet growth, there will still be upward movement via attrition and retirements. Fleet growth will just make it happen sooner. And the 200 fleet will make room for an additional 140 pilots this year.

msprj2

If we can hire we will get A/C.

KSCessnaDriver

Sure, 14 airplanes is growth. But for newhires today and this year, they need growth next year to keep the alleged 2 year upgrade to continue. Sure 180 SSP go to Delta this year, but how many of them are actually captains today? Assuming that even 150 of them are captains, that only comes up to roughly 300 upgrades, plus additional outside attrition. Someone hired today has roughly 500 2015 hires in front of them for upgrade. I just don't see 2 year upgrades continuing for people brought on property without significant fleet growth beyond the 14 200's.

I'm not downplaying this place, I'd rather see new hires told the realistic situation than being sold a bill of goods that everyone knows isn't possible.

HighFlight

We can hire, if our pay negotiations work out well for us.

I agree, though there is an upper limit somewhere out there. The pool of regional jobs will remain fairly constant over time. The only thing that may change is how many jobs each contractor controls.

I'll personally feel better about the airplane growth when we start bring on 700s or better and let the 200s fade away.