KSCessnaDriver

You honestly think that the company would allow the bonus to expire? Who is going to take our airplanes? Skywest is going to struggle to staff the 200's they're getting this year and the 30 175SC's (not to mention the Alaska flying they are adding). GoJet? Expressjet will be all but dead.

I'm saying they need to come back with a better proposal. There's nothing in this TA for guys from year 1-4. No 401K change, no vacation change. I'm trading 12 hours of sick time for Co-Domicile, 15 hour reserve duty days, and an extra day off a month for a reserve. Not to mention we're giving up our ability to bid reserve schedules with less than 3 days off.

Blueskies21

Do I think the bonus will expire? 50/50 chance. Congress has talked about rolling back the 1500 hr rule, which was one of the contributing factors to this pilot shortage. If that gets repealed we're back to 250 hr pilots and 6 months zero to hero; pilot shortage over and bonus goes poof.

As for other airlines staffing... you're absolutely dreaming if you think another airline would be unable to staff them. We'd furlough 1000 guys and some other airline would offer preferential hiring, maybe even 2nd year pay and boom they've got 1000 pilots for their new airplanes.

Don't believe we can't be replaced. We're cogs in the machine. If the cog gets particularly troublesome it is removed from the machine.

If we vote yes in November, we've guarenteed ourselves the money for the long haul, if we vote no and the pilot shortage is alleviated before TA2 is negotiated, then we very likely get less than is currently offered.

Keep in mind this took over a year to get to this point. Vote no in November, negotiating committee goes back to the table with our increased demands, it takes another year to get TA2 and now we're in November 2018 staring at the end of the bonus in Dec 18 right ahead. Is that really a better position to be in?

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KSCessnaDriver

I'm willing to bet that it is a better position. I understand if you don't think that's the case; vote what you think is the best option.

ATP law, isn't going anywhere. There is no change in the ATP law in the house bill being currently floated. Assuming it doesn't happen in this re-authorizaion, nothing happens in 2018, because nothing happens in Congress in an election year anyway. So with no ATP law changing, there simply isn't the pilots to staff the planes somewhere else.

If we vote yes, we give ourselves what we make now, with marginal gains (depending on your seniority) and no significant fleet assurance. Any kind of event that would cause an economic collapse is the end of us anyway. It's easier and cheaper for Delta to breach the bridge agreement and get bogged down in a lawsuit here, than it is for them to breach their CPA's with G7, OO, CP or YX.

Blueskies21

You think negotiating for a contract in November of 2018, with the bonus a month from sunsetting is a better situation???

I think we're under the gun then.

I don't expect the 1500 hr rule will be repealed, but it COULD and that'd be a flip the switch change... no need for long implementation period.

As for cheaper to break the bridge agreement vs a capacity purchase... unless you've got a law degree and experience in corporate law that you haven't mentioned... I think that's wild speculation. I have no idea which is easier to break.


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Kforekyle

That will never ever happen!

Kforekyle

If we send it back. We will have a better one on the table within 3 months. The 1500 is not going anywhere. Delta knows this. They are also not concerned about it.

HighFlight

It won’t get sent back. Too many smart folks working here for that mistake to take place.

Blueskies21

What are you basing the 3 months on? It took them a year to get this. Wouldn't it make sense that it will take that long to get significantly more?

As for the 1500 hr rule... I remember when we all said age 65 rule would never happen and then we woke up one day the law has changed and retirements were on pause for 5 years.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

We agree we're in a good market for pilots now, lock in the gain.

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Blueskies21

Based on what? They've been paying bonuses for what? 3 years? We've been flying CRJ's for 15? Definitely more time at 30-40k than at 50-60k.

I agree, it's good now. That doesn't assure permanence.

Honestly I hope you're right and a mild shortage continues for at least a couple more years... (a severe shortage is actually bad for us because it encourages creativity in problem solving. I.e. automation, work rule changes etc)

But hope and a dollar fifty will get you a coke.

At some point the pilot shortage WILL end and with it the bonuses. When? I have no idea. I'd like to secure any supply driven improvements before supply is no longer an issue.

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DL31082

Endeavor isn't in section 6 negotiations. The company and the association dont have to come back to the table at all if this is voted down. The company could let this sit until they have to open section 6 and by that time the bonus is gone and your negotiating against industry standard wages.

Also CPAs generally have performance clauses that state a certain level of performance or Delta can end them. Delta always has a way to get out of a CPA if they want to. Your bridge agreement guarantees you those aircraft as long as ALPA is on property and your owned by Delta. If you think a CPA saves your from going away just look at ASA. Our CPAs where supposed to go through 2020. They now end in 2018.