sailingfun

Keep in mind that new hire aircraft assignments are based on the backlog in each aircraft training pipeline as well as actual staffing needs. If the 88 pipeline is getting to long they shift new hires to other equipment.

notEnuf

So long as there are unfilled AE positions. If the 330 sims are wide open, they stay that way unless there was an AE and no pilots bid the position. Essentially it's AE leftovers.

tunes

agree with this

sailingfun

That is why they post extra positions on the AE's in new hire aircraft. It gives them the flexibility to keep all the pipelines full. They are not going to post extra positions on equipment like the 330 because people would actually bid them. It's also why the constant posts you see here after a AE talking about how many pilots they need based on unbid positions are useless.

motof16

It's seems like we're missing the real driver of the junior A positions being given out. It's not retirements, aircraft movements, or hiring. It's the senior FOs, many of whom experienced REAL stagnation (5-7 years M88B as the plug), are now above 50% seniority in their category. They get weekends, holidays, green slips, LCA trip buys, and the schedule they want. They are royalty of their category and the last two years have seen their QOL accelerate rapidly!

When I ask them why they aren't bidding the left seat I get two answers: 1) Not until I can make more money over there, 2) Not until I can hold a line consistently. Every one of them has a bid in for left seat but with a caveat for a certain seniority or line.

Thusly and forsooth, demand for the left seat bottom 15% will remain steady while the supply of "seniority appropriate" FOs will be very low. I predict we will see M88A and 717A positions go VERY junior for the next 2-3 years until 2014+ hires occupy the bottom of each category to meet the threshold set by the senior FOs.

Trip7

Very good analysis. Agree 100%

TED74

So if an experienced crew can take a Mad Dog off the runway at LGA, is it safe to assume two 9-month MD drivers are more likely to do so? Not throwing spears...I just don't think winter+inexperience+short runway+MD88 is likely to end well every single time.

Bert Sampson

It's not safe to assume anything. Any pilot with any level of experience is capable of anything, given the right conditions.

It's possible these "green" captains were LCAs at their previous 121 carrier, or have thousands of hours in the left seat in some capacity. Or not. But I've seen 10,000 hour pilots do some pretty wacky stuff, so I don't think the correlation between "is green" and "will be safety hazard" is as direct as some make it out to be.

Elliot

Why the drama? Is the outlook of your "safe space" in jeopardy since the person who suffocated business/economy has only a month left in public housing?

I've worked in safety for almost ten years. It's possible for an experienced crew to have just as high of an Operational Risk Management (ORM) score as a junior/less experienced crew. (e.g. C-5 crash at Dover, with two IP's & an EP.)

Tanker1497

ORM...there's a real solid safety tool. We used it, right up until we couldn't use it and fly!