Delta's pilot hiring pool is shrinking fast
03-21-2016, 05:05 AM
#31
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Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
A few years ago, aviation statesman (28,000 hrs logged in 300+ aircraft), retired TWA captain, and noted author, Barry Schiff exposed how his own son spent ten years in professional flying and never made more than 30K/yr. Schiff said he would not recommend a professional career in the airlines.
03-21-2016, 05:12 AM
#32
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Joined APC: Feb 2016
Posts: 1,237
That's exactly right, but I don't think you understand why it has come to this.
Do you remember the events of 9-11? Do you recall what happened to all the Major airlines afterwards? They all filed for bankruptcy, furloughed thousands of pilots, cut pay rates by nearly 50% and completely eliminated retirement benefits, which were worth millions, PER PILOT.
At the same time, fuel prices were going through the roof, and the economy tanked in 2008. Flying lessons were up to $170/hr for students (my son was one) and then there were NO JOBS for them to move up to, due to the furloughed pilots all being pushed backwards into those entry level jobs, many left the industry all together, and 25+ year Captains (like me) could NOT afford to pay $170/hr for our kids flying lessons, after taking such huge pay cuts in bankruptcy.
There was simply NO POINT in pursuing the career at that time, too much cost, no reward.
Add to that the explosion of new technology available to kids today. There are simply too many other things they can pursue in the IT world, that don't take nearly the same amount of time/money investment to learn, offering more jobs to move into, which all pay much better than starting pay at any RJ outfit. Oh, and no time away from home required in the IT world either.
Compare that to the lifestyle and pay of the average new RJ pilot, and see how many years and how many thousands of dollars he has invested...to earn minimum wage and be gone from home, 15-20 days a month.
The industry has now 'restructured' itself, through 4 major mergers. What was once 8 competing carriers has become only 4, and they are smart enough not to run Fare Wars, undercutting each other. Fuel prices have come down, the industry is now making unforeseen Billions, but the pilot's pay is STILL far below what it was 15 years ago, with NO REAL RETIEMENT PLAN!
These 4 airline management teams are now using these billions in profits, to enrich themselves through stock buybacks, instead of restoring the ongoing pilot pay/benefit cuts!
You call it whining, I call it reality.
So guess what?
There's a pilot shortage coming.
Why?
Nobody in the training pipeline.
Why not?
See above.
I can tell you that when I was 14 (1973) and thinking about what I would like to do for the rest of my life, the fact that I knew a couple well off airline pilots in my neighborhood had a LOT to do to influence my decision to pursue flying as a career.
Contrast that to the last 10 years airline pilot's lives; furloughed, or losing their homes to bankruptcy, or divorce, or all of the above. Why would any teenager paying attention want to go down that road, even if he could afford the flying lessons, when he can play on the computer and write code instead?
I'm going to post a clip of what Sully Sullenberger said to Congress several years ago, re the future of the piloting profession, and why no airline pilot today wants his kid to get into it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kePiiZ8_YA
Do you remember the events of 9-11? Do you recall what happened to all the Major airlines afterwards? They all filed for bankruptcy, furloughed thousands of pilots, cut pay rates by nearly 50% and completely eliminated retirement benefits, which were worth millions, PER PILOT.
At the same time, fuel prices were going through the roof, and the economy tanked in 2008. Flying lessons were up to $170/hr for students (my son was one) and then there were NO JOBS for them to move up to, due to the furloughed pilots all being pushed backwards into those entry level jobs, many left the industry all together, and 25+ year Captains (like me) could NOT afford to pay $170/hr for our kids flying lessons, after taking such huge pay cuts in bankruptcy.
There was simply NO POINT in pursuing the career at that time, too much cost, no reward.
Add to that the explosion of new technology available to kids today. There are simply too many other things they can pursue in the IT world, that don't take nearly the same amount of time/money investment to learn, offering more jobs to move into, which all pay much better than starting pay at any RJ outfit. Oh, and no time away from home required in the IT world either.
Compare that to the lifestyle and pay of the average new RJ pilot, and see how many years and how many thousands of dollars he has invested...to earn minimum wage and be gone from home, 15-20 days a month.
The industry has now 'restructured' itself, through 4 major mergers. What was once 8 competing carriers has become only 4, and they are smart enough not to run Fare Wars, undercutting each other. Fuel prices have come down, the industry is now making unforeseen Billions, but the pilot's pay is STILL far below what it was 15 years ago, with NO REAL RETIEMENT PLAN!
These 4 airline management teams are now using these billions in profits, to enrich themselves through stock buybacks, instead of restoring the ongoing pilot pay/benefit cuts!
You call it whining, I call it reality.
So guess what?
There's a pilot shortage coming.
Why?
Nobody in the training pipeline.
Why not?
See above.
I can tell you that when I was 14 (1973) and thinking about what I would like to do for the rest of my life, the fact that I knew a couple well off airline pilots in my neighborhood had a LOT to do to influence my decision to pursue flying as a career.
Contrast that to the last 10 years airline pilot's lives; furloughed, or losing their homes to bankruptcy, or divorce, or all of the above. Why would any teenager paying attention want to go down that road, even if he could afford the flying lessons, when he can play on the computer and write code instead?
I'm going to post a clip of what Sully Sullenberger said to Congress several years ago, re the future of the piloting profession, and why no airline pilot today wants his kid to get into it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kePiiZ8_YA
So 9/11 caused the airlines and economy to tank and caused bankruptcy. Pilot pay and benefits plummeted. Airlines laid off pilots.
Rising college and flight school costs deterred young people from
enrolling or pursuing aviation as a career.
Professional pilots almost universally didn't recommend it as a career.
Pipeline is now dry.
Maybe if "Top Gun 2" is made it will inspire young people to pursue aviation. It is a compelling argument but young people don't always
follow reason. I think they find it as interesting as a railroad conductor or semi driver Interesting for a while but certainly not captivating like a generation ago. I don't have answers but the youtube generation just seems disinterested in many things their parent/s did for employment.
03-21-2016, 05:33 AM
#33
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Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Posts: 3,655
Thank you for the great response.
So 9/11 caused the airlines and economy to tank and caused bankruptcy. Pilot pay and benefits plummeted. Airlines laid off pilots.
Rising college and flight school costs deterred young people from
enrolling or pursuing aviation as a career.
Professional pilots almost universally didn't recommend it as a career.
Pipeline is now dry.
Maybe if "Top Gun 2" is made it will inspire young people to pursue aviation. It is a compelling argument but young people don't always
follow reason. I think they find it as interesting as a railroad conductor or semi driver Interesting for a while but certainly not captivating like a generation ago. I don't have answers but the youtube generation just seems disinterested in many things their parent/s did for employment.
So 9/11 caused the airlines and economy to tank and caused bankruptcy. Pilot pay and benefits plummeted. Airlines laid off pilots.
Rising college and flight school costs deterred young people from
enrolling or pursuing aviation as a career.
Professional pilots almost universally didn't recommend it as a career.
Pipeline is now dry.
Maybe if "Top Gun 2" is made it will inspire young people to pursue aviation. It is a compelling argument but young people don't always
follow reason. I think they find it as interesting as a railroad conductor or semi driver Interesting for a while but certainly not captivating like a generation ago. I don't have answers but the youtube generation just seems disinterested in many things their parent/s did for employment.
Look at the jets used in 9/11... less than 50% load factors on wide bodies going coast to coast.
Before 9/11, there was way more capacity in the system than was required by the economy and load factors were in the toilet, industry and system wide.
9/11 allowed most the companies to first experiment how to attract butts to seats and when that didn't work because there were still too many seats, park whole fleets and drag the employees through BK court.
When the industry was on the verge of coming out of it's overcapacity, the retirement age was raised overnight by 5 years effectively capping all progression for another 5 years.
It's hard to think of an industry that doesn't go through upheaval in a capitalist economy though, especially one like the airlines that provide a highly capital intensive product that takes months/years to shift supply when the economy can change much quicker.
03-21-2016, 06:11 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: Power top
Posts: 2,960
We now have mainline captains with (I believe) 2.5 years or so. I didn't breakdown the latest AE, but it was amazingly junior. The group coming up now is going to have a career that will make your eyes water. This is a great profession to be starting right now. I would go into this in a heartbeat if I were 25 years old.
03-21-2016, 07:20 AM
#35
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Joined APC: May 2015
Position: A350 Both
Posts: 7,292
Major threat for what? If you are talking about cabotage, then you are probably right. As long as we have the feckless/spineless government that we now have they are definitely a threat. If it is merely for the $$ then, no. Oh sure you always have guys that have shiny jet syndrome, but that can be taken care of by ensuring that any American that goes there from Jan 1 2016 never gets a job here in the USA. Of course we don't want to do that either unfortunately.
03-21-2016, 08:28 AM
#36
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Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 7ERA
Posts: 1,231
Truth is 9/11 was only the "force majeure" event that allowed the industry to make drastic downsizing that it was realizing during 2001 were needed.
Look at the jets used in 9/11... less than 50% load factors on wide bodies going coast to coast.
Before 9/11, there was way more capacity in the system than was required by the economy and load factors were in the toilet, industry and system wide.
er.
Look at the jets used in 9/11... less than 50% load factors on wide bodies going coast to coast.
Before 9/11, there was way more capacity in the system than was required by the economy and load factors were in the toilet, industry and system wide.
er.
03-21-2016, 09:04 AM
#37
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Cockpit speaker volume knob set to eleven.
Posts: 1,410
I agree with you.....9/11 allowed the airlines the reason they needed to cut capacity. I firmly believe the airlines, collectively, used 9/11 as a reason to permanently reset labor costs. Some airlines were headed to BK anyway, others were managed to end up in BK, so they could get the labor costs they were targeting.
03-21-2016, 09:37 AM
#38
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Joined APC: May 2015
Position: Power top
Posts: 2,960
Major threat for what? If you are talking about cabotage, then you are probably right. As long as we have the feckless/spineless government that we now have they are definitely a threat. If it is merely for the $$ then, no. Oh sure you always have guys that have shiny jet syndrome, but that can be taken care of by ensuring that any American that goes there from Jan 1 2016 never gets a job here in the USA. Of course we don't want to do that either unfortunately.
Or you can fly our 30 year old B767 and 60+ cabin crew. It's the camel's nose under the tent, no pun intended. You'll see lots of shiny jets at every major airport in the world with their livery. Try nonrevving to Dubai on Delta, you can't anymore.
03-21-2016, 09:46 AM
#39
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,598
If it wasn't an issue and they were not worried about it, they wouldn't be mentioning it in emails. They also wouldn't be trying to setup a "JetBlue Gateway" program through Endeavor to get pilots down the road.
Within the next 2 years you will see an ab-initio program starting guys at 0 time so we will have pilots post 2021.......or our international flying will be transferred to JV partners due to lack of staffing.
Within the next 2 years you will see an ab-initio program starting guys at 0 time so we will have pilots post 2021.......or our international flying will be transferred to JV partners due to lack of staffing.
03-21-2016, 10:36 AM
#40
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,903
That's exactly right, but I don't think you understand why it has come to this.
Do you remember the events of 9-11? Do you recall what happened to all the Major airlines afterwards? They all filed for bankruptcy, furloughed thousands of pilots, cut pay rates by nearly 50% and completely eliminated retirement benefits, which were worth millions, PER PILOT....
Do you remember the events of 9-11? Do you recall what happened to all the Major airlines afterwards? They all filed for bankruptcy, furloughed thousands of pilots, cut pay rates by nearly 50% and completely eliminated retirement benefits, which were worth millions, PER PILOT....
Great post. Cuts to the heart of the matter.
1989. You had a dozen majors (of one kind or another) hiring 100/month (gotta love 3 man airplanes).
You had plenty of commuters, but they much smaller, and were all suffering what you would think would be catastrophic turnover...in many cases 100% per year.
Did they lower their minimums to wet-commercial? Nope. Didn't have to. 1000/100 was the lowest I ever saw, even in the peak of the hiring.
Why? Plenty of people in the pipeline. The majors were attractive, well worth going for, and with plenty of them, you stood a good chance of hiring on. The career was still such that it DREW people into the pipeline, and they tolerated the BS.
When did the collapse of hiring minimums happen in the regionals?
2006. Right when the effects of the pay and benefit hits on the majors took place. Who in their right mind would get involved in the industry when the benefits were so reduced, as well as your chances for getting there?
The collapse in the hiring requirements at the regionals, pre-1500 hour rule, was a symptom of more than just the bad pay and working conditions at the regionals. They've always been way below par...that's nothing new, and certainly the effects of inflation didn't help, but the draw was no longer there.
Nu
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