gzsg

The best way to monitor the pilot shortage is at the regionals. Obviously they will run short of pilots first.

If they continue to shrink we will really be on to something.

IMO this will be the case.

Today is their best day.

100% of Delta flying should be at the mainline.

oldcarpilot

If they were worried about applicants maybe they should actually re-interview those who they said could never ever interview with them again because of either the shrink or not getting through the panel.

lear700pilot

Thanks for remembering me!

Went to WIA also took a break from this site because of my own sanity. All I can report is after speaking with a normal DAL recruiter - not someone from selection such as Kraby, Flanigan, etc. The recruiter told me they could tell I've done my research of how the app system works and that what they saw on my resume looked great - mentioned I have "lots of boxes checked". After years of going to these conventions WIA, OBAP, etc. you feel like a rockstar and that it's certain that a call will come, but after weeks, months, and then you are right back at the same environment a year later you begin to realize these events don't do much of anything other than get your app viewed and possibly scored. If it's been scored in the last 9 months then dang you spent a lot of money if you came only to see DAL.

The point I'm trying to make is DAL is a whole different animal than some - not all - majors. They will speak to you about "your career desires to work for DAL", but it's all about the app. You could be a head over heals person for DAL, but that won't make the cut for the invite.

I should write a book on keeping your head up when the "pretty girl" won't date you .

msprj2

Didn't Delta start out as a regional airline? I'd be curious of how many
retired Delta pilots had 4yr degrees or better.
Didn't feeder/regional airlines get their start as air taxis that serviced small communities and flew to larger cities and towns that had airline service?
Pilot numbers will continue to go down regardless of what mainline does.
Ever go to Oshkosh? Kinda seems to be getting older and older. The interest just isn't there. How many FBO's have kids hanging out looking for an airplane ride? The pilot profession I think has caused its own numbers to decrease. What once was a fun and exciting profession has become stuffy and filled with whiners and complainers. Most pilots I have known tell young people to go into something else not follow your heart.
Pilots no longer seem interested in airplanes.
My 2 cents.

Timbo

That's exactly right, but I don't think you understand why it has come to this.

Do you remember the events of 9-11? Do you recall what happened to all the Major airlines afterwards? They all filed for bankruptcy, furloughed thousands of pilots, cut pay rates by nearly 50% and completely eliminated retirement benefits, which were worth millions, PER PILOT.

At the same time, fuel prices were going through the roof, and the economy tanked in 2008. Flying lessons were up to $170/hr for students (my son was one) and then there were NO JOBS for them to move up to, due to the furloughed pilots all being pushed backwards into those entry level jobs, many left the industry all together, and 25+ year Captains (like me) could NOT afford to pay $170/hr for our kids flying lessons, after taking such huge pay cuts in bankruptcy.

There was simply NO POINT in pursuing the career at that time, too much cost, no reward.

Add to that the explosion of new technology available to kids today. There are simply too many other things they can pursue in the IT world, that don't take nearly the same amount of time/money investment to learn, offering more jobs to move into, which all pay much better than starting pay at any RJ outfit. Oh, and no time away from home required in the IT world either.

Compare that to the lifestyle and pay of the average new RJ pilot, and see how many years and how many thousands of dollars he has invested...to earn minimum wage and be gone from home, 15-20 days a month.

The industry has now 'restructured' itself, through 4 major mergers. What was once 8 competing carriers has become only 4, and they are smart enough not to run Fare Wars, undercutting each other. Fuel prices have come down, the industry is now making unforeseen Billions, but the pilot's pay is STILL far below what it was 15 years ago, with NO REAL RETIEMENT PLAN!

These 4 airline management teams are now using these billions in profits, to enrich themselves through stock buybacks, instead of restoring the ongoing pilot pay/benefit cuts!

You call it whining, I call it reality.

So guess what?

There's a pilot shortage coming.

Why?

Nobody in the training pipeline.

Why not?

See above.

I can tell you that when I was 14 (1973) and thinking about what I would like to do for the rest of my life, the fact that I knew a couple well off airline pilots in my neighborhood had a LOT to do to influence my decision to pursue flying as a career.

Contrast that to the last 10 years airline pilot's lives; furloughed, or losing their homes to bankruptcy, or divorce, or all of the above. Why would any teenager paying attention want to go down that road, even if he could afford the flying lessons, when he can play on the computer and write code instead?

I'm going to post a clip of what Sully Sullenberger said to Congress several years ago, re the future of the piloting profession, and why no airline pilot today wants his kid to get into it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kePiiZ8_YA

badflaps

Considering the outcome, I'm not sure I would pick this career on a "Do Over." I seemed to do a lot better in real estate. When I started it didn't pay squat. Captains always made it. So if you made Captain quickly, great. Now, at the end it doesn't pay anything for your final twenty years on the planet. I guess greenies are the answer for middle years. A puzzlement........

bedrock

A few years ago, aviation statesman (28,000 hrs logged in 300+ aircraft), retired TWA captain, and noted author, Barry Schiff exposed how his own son spent ten years in professional flying and never made more than 30K/yr. Schiff said he would not recommend a professional career in the airlines.

Mesabah

Delta is working to turn Endeavor into an ab-intio training academy for future Delta pilots. Tier 1 candidates will be much easier to find when flight time isn't required. Delta is all about your academic, reliability, and volunteer record.

forgot to bid

Using your analogy and using my probable tier 3 status in 07, the pretty girl was on a rebound, wearing beer goggles, bored and in need of some attention.

I was willing.

JamesBond

We now have mainline captains with (I believe) 2.5 years or so. I didn't breakdown the latest AE, but it was amazingly junior. The group coming up now is going to have a career that will make your eyes water. This is a great profession to be starting right now. I would go into this in a heartbeat if I were 25 years old.