The Case For Voting Yes - Multiple Parts
07-04-2015, 11:36 AM
#91
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Road construction signholder
Posts: 2,433
I do not want the guy sitting next to me unfocused on the tasks at hand. If his mind is a million miles away and we are fighting alligators on the flight deck, I do not want him there because he is useless to me. Besides, doesn't everybody now have to sign the release saying they are fit for duty? Mental fitness is included in that. You can be a stock broker and have these issues (although I wouldn't necessarily be happy with the results), but not in aviation.
I still maintain that this whole issue is forefront because it is nearly impossible to get a day off once your schedule has been assigned. That is the problem which needs fixing. Short staffed reserves allow for NO ONE, all the way to the number one guy in category to drop trips. That affects everybody. Fix that, and "abusive" sick calls will drop dramatically imho.
I still maintain that this whole issue is forefront because it is nearly impossible to get a day off once your schedule has been assigned. That is the problem which needs fixing. Short staffed reserves allow for NO ONE, all the way to the number one guy in category to drop trips. That affects everybody. Fix that, and "abusive" sick calls will drop dramatically imho.
07-04-2015, 11:40 AM
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Road construction signholder
Posts: 2,433
China's stock market is crashing...
...Greece will likely default this weekend and exit the EU
...Puerto Rico is in economic crisis
...the US Municipal Bond market is teetering on the verge of collapse as local gov'ts can't meet their pensions obligations (see CA, Chicago, Detroit, etc, etc, etc, etc)...
...32 US states face budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both, according to an April 27 report by Standard & Poors...
...the Baltic Dry Index (cost to ship good overseas in freighters) is at an all-time LOW (800ish vs all-time high of 5000) because global economic activity is virtually non-existent...
...the total notional value of derivatives exposure by U.S. banks iss $240 trillion according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as of Q4/2014...
....the BIS (Bank of International Settlements....the "Bank of Banks") is issuing dire warnings re: current global monetary policy and massive economic risk...
....etc, etc, etc, etc....
In point of fact, the only people living in fantasyland are those who think:
1) there won't be another global economic crisis in the next 3 years
2) that the world central banks will be able to do anything about it other than watch everything implode and banking contagion spread like wildfire.
This TA is very, very simple. Mgmt is banking on the senior pilot group getting lost on the PAY, PAY, PAY (hoping they're ASSUMING best case scenarios ONLY!) in order to vote yes and thus undermining the future of the junior pilot group through the other concessions. The OP is a perfect reflection of Anderson's gamble.
The OP ASSUMES profits will stay the same and increase. Assumes.
Meanwhile, there is not a single "yes" scenario that assumes a profit decline (for any reason) and can justify a "yes" vote under that (increasingly likely) scenario.
"Yes" voters would be far more intelligent to assume the worst re: profits and the new pay package...which is kind of interesting...as they're presumably professional pilots who are paid to assume the worst and remain prepared for it.
But come contract time and a pay increase, that professional mindset flies out the window, and they "assume" nothing but the best case scenarios to justify their thoughts/actions.
It's amazing.
.
...Greece will likely default this weekend and exit the EU
...Puerto Rico is in economic crisis
...the US Municipal Bond market is teetering on the verge of collapse as local gov'ts can't meet their pensions obligations (see CA, Chicago, Detroit, etc, etc, etc, etc)...
...32 US states face budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both, according to an April 27 report by Standard & Poors...
...the Baltic Dry Index (cost to ship good overseas in freighters) is at an all-time LOW (800ish vs all-time high of 5000) because global economic activity is virtually non-existent...
...the total notional value of derivatives exposure by U.S. banks iss $240 trillion according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as of Q4/2014...
....the BIS (Bank of International Settlements....the "Bank of Banks") is issuing dire warnings re: current global monetary policy and massive economic risk...
....etc, etc, etc, etc....
In point of fact, the only people living in fantasyland are those who think:
1) there won't be another global economic crisis in the next 3 years
2) that the world central banks will be able to do anything about it other than watch everything implode and banking contagion spread like wildfire.
This TA is very, very simple. Mgmt is banking on the senior pilot group getting lost on the PAY, PAY, PAY (hoping they're ASSUMING best case scenarios ONLY!) in order to vote yes and thus undermining the future of the junior pilot group through the other concessions. The OP is a perfect reflection of Anderson's gamble.
The OP ASSUMES profits will stay the same and increase. Assumes.
Meanwhile, there is not a single "yes" scenario that assumes a profit decline (for any reason) and can justify a "yes" vote under that (increasingly likely) scenario.
"Yes" voters would be far more intelligent to assume the worst re: profits and the new pay package...which is kind of interesting...as they're presumably professional pilots who are paid to assume the worst and remain prepared for it.
But come contract time and a pay increase, that professional mindset flies out the window, and they "assume" nothing but the best case scenarios to justify their thoughts/actions.
It's amazing.
.
07-04-2015, 12:45 PM
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2014
Position: Downward-Facing Dog Pose
Posts: 1,537
Simple.
Has the OP ever run an "analysis" where profits tank due to on-going economic crisis/contraction in every year going forward from present...you know, a worst case scenario?
All I see from the "yes" people are the same things MEC puts out. Best case...we assume...nothing else we can do...
If this TA was an airplane, would you put your family on it?
Well, if it's ratified there is nothing that can be done. Any leverage, real or perceived, would be lost.
If it's not, then there are many possibilities. Others you would deem far more credible than I have already spoken to the different paths forward. I believe those who say time is on the pilot group side are correct and that Anderson sure does seem to be in a rush to get this deal done.
Knowing that Anderson is in a rush...and that his job is to get the best deal he possibly can...makes me think the best path forward is slowing all of this down and keeping options open. Much like flying an airplane.
After all, do you believe DC and the media telling you the economy is great with the lowest labor participation rate since the 1970's, 95+ million Americans out of work, food stamps are at an all-time high....
...yet the stock market is too? You mean those same buy-side analysts telling everyone to buy DAL stock at a market high while the gov't tells you there is no inflation and yet staple like ground beef have never been more expensive than they are right now??
I'd say the stock market is wayyyyyy out of whack with reality, and so is assuming profits are going to increase from current record levels.
.
Last edited by SayAlt; 07-04-2015 at 01:06 PM.
07-04-2015, 02:15 PM
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Road construction signholder
Posts: 2,433
Simple.
Has the OP ever run an "analysis" where profits tank due to on-going economic crisis/contraction in every year going forward from present...you know, a worst case scenario?
All I see from the "yes" people are the same things MEC puts out. Best case...we assume...nothing else we can do...
If this TA was an airplane, would you put your family on it?
Well, if it's ratified there is nothing that can be done. Any leverage, real or perceived, would be lost.
If it's not, then there are many possibilities. Others you would deem far more credible than I have already spoken to the different paths forward. I believe those who say time is on the pilot group side are correct and that Anderson sure does seem to be in a rush to get this deal done.
Knowing that Anderson is in a rush...and that his job is to get the best deal he possibly can...makes me think the best path forward is slowing all of this down and keeping options open. Much like flying an airplane.
After all, do you believe DC and the media telling you the economy is great with the lowest labor participation rate since the 1970's, 95+ million Americans out of work, food stamps are at an all-time high....
...yet the stock market is too? You mean those same buy-side analysts telling everyone to buy DAL stock at a market high while the gov't tells you there is no inflation and yet staple like ground beef have never been more expensive than they are right now??
I'd say the stock market is wayyyyyy out of whack with reality, and so is assuming profits are going to increase from current record levels.
.
Has the OP ever run an "analysis" where profits tank due to on-going economic crisis/contraction in every year going forward from present...you know, a worst case scenario?
All I see from the "yes" people are the same things MEC puts out. Best case...we assume...nothing else we can do...
If this TA was an airplane, would you put your family on it?
Well, if it's ratified there is nothing that can be done. Any leverage, real or perceived, would be lost.
If it's not, then there are many possibilities. Others you would deem far more credible than I have already spoken to the different paths forward. I believe those who say time is on the pilot group side are correct and that Anderson sure does seem to be in a rush to get this deal done.
Knowing that Anderson is in a rush...and that his job is to get the best deal he possibly can...makes me think the best path forward is slowing all of this down and keeping options open. Much like flying an airplane.
After all, do you believe DC and the media telling you the economy is great with the lowest labor participation rate since the 1970's, 95+ million Americans out of work, food stamps are at an all-time high....
...yet the stock market is too? You mean those same buy-side analysts telling everyone to buy DAL stock at a market high while the gov't tells you there is no inflation and yet staple like ground beef have never been more expensive than they are right now??
I'd say the stock market is wayyyyyy out of whack with reality, and so is assuming profits are going to increase from current record levels.
.
Surely slowing this down ("this" being the whole negotiating cycle and all) would be the worst thing we could do.
IF you are correct then we could be a repeat of the AA guys who rejected a good TA just prior to 9/11 and never saw it.
So I still don't see your point. You seem to advocate a NO vote (as do I but for different reasons) but then throw a host of numbers and observations that seem to scream "let's ratify this TA asap before an imploding economy leaves the (still in negotiations) pilot group holding the bag."
07-04-2015, 03:48 PM
#95
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Like a sick drop. You're sick. That's your fault. We will not count it against you but you're not getting paid. Next time, try not to get dick. Also we need you to verify that you were sick before we don't not pay you.
07-04-2015, 05:13 PM
#96
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 1,418
China's stock market is crashing...
...Greece will likely default this weekend and exit the EU
...Puerto Rico is in economic crisis
...the US Municipal Bond market is teetering on the verge of collapse as local gov'ts can't meet their pensions obligations (see CA, Chicago, Detroit, etc, etc, etc, etc)...
...32 US states face budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both, according to an April 27 report by Standard & Poors...
...the Baltic Dry Index (cost to ship good overseas in freighters) is at an all-time LOW (800ish vs all-time high of 5000) because global economic activity is virtually non-existent...
...the total notional value of derivatives exposure by U.S. banks iss $240 trillion according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as of Q4/2014...
....the BIS (Bank of International Settlements....the "Bank of Banks") is issuing dire warnings re: current global monetary policy and massive economic risk...
....etc, etc, etc, etc....
In point of fact, the only people living in fantasyland are those who think:
1) there won't be another global economic crisis in the next 3 years
2) that the world central banks will be able to do anything about it other than watch everything implode and banking contagion spread like wildfire.
This TA is very, very simple. Mgmt is banking on the senior pilot group getting lost on the PAY, PAY, PAY (hoping they're ASSUMING best case scenarios ONLY!) in order to vote yes and thus undermining the future of the junior pilot group through the other concessions. The OP is a perfect reflection of Anderson's gamble.
The OP ASSUMES profits will stay the same and increase. Assumes.
Meanwhile, there is not a single "yes" scenario that assumes a profit decline (for any reason) and can justify a "yes" vote under that (increasingly likely) scenario.
"Yes" voters would be far more intelligent to assume the worst re: profits and the new pay package...which is kind of interesting...as they're presumably professional pilots who are paid to assume the worst and remain prepared for it.
But come contract time and a pay increase, that professional mindset flies out the window, and they "assume" nothing but the best case scenarios to justify their thoughts/actions.
It's amazing.
.
...Greece will likely default this weekend and exit the EU
...Puerto Rico is in economic crisis
...the US Municipal Bond market is teetering on the verge of collapse as local gov'ts can't meet their pensions obligations (see CA, Chicago, Detroit, etc, etc, etc, etc)...
...32 US states face budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both, according to an April 27 report by Standard & Poors...
...the Baltic Dry Index (cost to ship good overseas in freighters) is at an all-time LOW (800ish vs all-time high of 5000) because global economic activity is virtually non-existent...
...the total notional value of derivatives exposure by U.S. banks iss $240 trillion according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as of Q4/2014...
....the BIS (Bank of International Settlements....the "Bank of Banks") is issuing dire warnings re: current global monetary policy and massive economic risk...
....etc, etc, etc, etc....
In point of fact, the only people living in fantasyland are those who think:
1) there won't be another global economic crisis in the next 3 years
2) that the world central banks will be able to do anything about it other than watch everything implode and banking contagion spread like wildfire.
This TA is very, very simple. Mgmt is banking on the senior pilot group getting lost on the PAY, PAY, PAY (hoping they're ASSUMING best case scenarios ONLY!) in order to vote yes and thus undermining the future of the junior pilot group through the other concessions. The OP is a perfect reflection of Anderson's gamble.
The OP ASSUMES profits will stay the same and increase. Assumes.
Meanwhile, there is not a single "yes" scenario that assumes a profit decline (for any reason) and can justify a "yes" vote under that (increasingly likely) scenario.
"Yes" voters would be far more intelligent to assume the worst re: profits and the new pay package...which is kind of interesting...as they're presumably professional pilots who are paid to assume the worst and remain prepared for it.
But come contract time and a pay increase, that professional mindset flies out the window, and they "assume" nothing but the best case scenarios to justify their thoughts/actions.
It's amazing.
.
The scenario if profits go to $0 with no TA:
No 21.5% increase in pay rates (net 16.5% after PS adjustment) and profit sharing of 16% goes to zero.
In short - 35% less money than with this TA with profits.
07-04-2015, 05:19 PM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
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