Originally Posted by pilotc90a

It would be interesting to compile all the "rumors" everyone has heard, and compare them to the TA when it comes out to see how close they actually came.

When I read the C1 newsletter this was the first thing I thought of... These rumors tend to be in the general, without a lot of specifics. What metric will be used to determine if the alleged rumor was in fact close enough to what came out in the end...

So far we have:
9/9/5/5
9/6/5/5
Sick Leave harassment
Reduction of profit sharing
GS going away/Significantly reduced

What did I miss. This will sure to be cataloged for the next time we have a contract negotiation and the usual suspects with through them back and forth. Lets set the record straight now!

Originally Posted by Bananie

Lewis and Bartels. They screwed up the bankruptcy negotiations, they screwed up the JCBA negotiations, and they screwed up the SLI negotiations. Now they act like they are a couple of geniuses. What a pair.

Originally Posted by Herkflyr

The rumor mongering is amusing. The company's 1113 proposal in BK had getting rid of the payback days for reserve GS. We didn't concede it even then. I can't imagine doing it now.

Originally Posted by notEnuf

"at risk" debunk #2

Here's my latest find. It took some digging and a little review of last years quarterly updates. This requires a compare and contrast of the two Q1 reports but is summarized best by Ed Bastian.

Here's the two reports.

2014 Q1
http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_financ...001_j55rj9.pdf

2015 Q1
http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_financ...001_k0ii9v.pdf


Both reports contain a discussion of Q2 revenue under the heading Revenue Environment.

The 2014 statement by Ed Bastian

“March quarter's top line growth of 5 percent shows the strength of Delta's revenue momentum even through the revenue loss from weather and a shift of the Easter holiday traffic into April,” said Ed Bastian, Delta’s president. "We see continued revenue strength as we move through the year from corporate revenue gains, the benefits of the Virgin Atlantic joint venture and improved ancillary revenues. These initiatives, coupled with a solid demand environment, should lead to unit revenue growth in the mid-single digits for the June quarter."


The 2015 statement by Ed Bastian

“For the March quarter, Delta delivered solid 5 percent top line growth and a 17.8 percent operating margin at market fuel prices,” said Ed Bastian, Delta’s president. “The substantial benefit from lower fuel prices will again more than offset the unit revenue decline of 2 to 4 percent for the June quarter to produce operating margins north of 20 percent at market fuel prices.”



2014 = mid single digit growth in revenue
2015 = 2-4% revenue decline

2014 = margin was 14.9%
2015 = margins north of 20% for June quarter


How can that be? Reduced revenue but increased margin? The only answer is costs. Fuel to be specific. We will hit it out of the park at market price fuel. Remember hedges were written down early so we have a market price fuel expense. That gives us a favorable peer to peer comparison on an even playing field. That will surely help the stock price. Focus on the margins though, that is what helps our profit sharing. We care about earnings not stock price or EPS.

June quarter profit sharing contributions will out pace last year.

The only risk to us collecting this is if we give it away.

We now have 2 quarters trending above 2014 with our historically best quarter of the year next Q3.

Originally Posted by sailingfun

Just a small point. Delta has not written down all their fuel hedges. They have written down some of the hedges but are still deeply on the down side. That is the specific reason Bastion keeps mentioning margins at market fuel prices. Management does not want to talk about how badly they have managed our fuel situation. We are going to pay well above market rates for the rest of this year. Our actual margins will be less then the market fuel rate margin. The later sounds better when talking to wall street.

Originally Posted by boog123

and your post sounds like you are trying to lower expectations, just saying..

Originally Posted by gzsg

More 76 seat RJs for the DCI. I know this can't be true because no voting MEC member is so stupid as to make yet more scope concessions during historic record profits.

Originally Posted by BlaneO

What about 96-seat Embraers, added to mainline?

Originally Posted by gloopy

Yeah probably not. But there are numerous other ways to severely crush the GS machine. I can think of several off hand, but I'm ot going to post them right now to give them any ideas.

But there are many ways to assault green slips and rolling thunder without eliminating payback days. Many ways.

Originally Posted by gloopy

They could do that anytime they wanted to. No PWA modifications necessary.