80ktsClamp

Nope. It demonstrates that we should have hired this year.

daldude

How do you figure? Actually I believe if you will take all of the early out pilots out of the equation then average the ages you will find the retirement age is closer to 64. You cant include the early out guys because they retired under a early out program that is not being offered now.

Maybe my math is bad but I don't see how you 2017/18 could be possible Let me try my numbers

2014 hire seniority number 11500 - 530 retirements between now and 2017 puts him at seniority number 10970 approximately 2950 numbers away from most junior capt. Lets say I'm off by 20% still 2350 numbers short of capt.

NoHandHold

Another displacement bid?!?

No hiring now huh?!?

gloopy

I wasn't sure how to read that. What I got out of it was that there will be ongoing displacements out of the 75(ER) categories while its being drawn down. And even though they didn't mention it, there will also be 320 displacements as they continue to be parked, unless we order some 320/321's fairly soon. Additionally, there will be M88 displacements probably starting at least in a few years as the oldest of those will begin to be retired.

IOW, there will always be displacements, even during periods of record hiring and advancement. What concerns us is will those displacements be "more than" made up for by replacement flying and *gasp* possibly even growth, even if "growth" is merely a slight reduction in post merger shrinkage.

So them saying we will perpetually kick bodies off the 75 categories really has nothing to do with endless displacements and I believe they even said as much in the next sentenence.

That's how I read it, and I do not waive my right to be cynical.

johnso29

Correct. The displacements from the 757/767 are no suprise. It's a shrinking category. The airline itself is scheduled to grow. Hiring will begin soon.

daldude

Johnson, please provide your source documentation to support the above statement. At this point the airline has shrunk continuously since 2011 and I have not seen any documentation that guarantees growth. What we do know is they are currently displacing off the 75/76 to man(fund) the 717 and 737. Why do we know that? Because that is what they said they are doing. If you have any information that is written by all means share it. I really love your optimism and you could be correct in you statement above but based on the information that has been given out by Steve Dickson and crew resources your statements are not supported in any form.

MrMustache

They also said that the majority of the vacancies with be for 717 and 737 CA... If it was doom and gloom wouldn't it be FO positions? Seems to me they are saving some FO openings for something...

80ktsClamp

Yep... the specific wording on the memo states there will be 717 FO positions open as well. They will continue to go uncovered. Warm bodies will need to come from somewhere to cover them.

daldude

Actually it says this,

Crew Resources update 3 July 2013

"We plan to post the next AE in the late August or early September with Captain and First Officer vacancies on the ATL-717."

I'm not saying they did not say "We will be leaving 717 FO position open because we don't have warm bodies to fill them" I just can't find it

MrMustache