Originally Posted by scambo1

Well, thanks for offering your constructive debate. I guess you don't have any constructive debate to add.

For some reason when I quoted you, your statement that these boards dont represent the interests of the average delta pilot disappeared.

I guess in that case they must represent the interests of the average delta manager.

Originally Posted by RonRicco

But, prior to C2K you also had high and low yellow slips without regard to DOA, partial month move ups (allowed you to hold a line for part of the month) first out on a YS on an X day. This gave you a lot of control over your schedule and the ability to fill up quite easily.

C2K eliminated PMM and restricted YS to DOA, but also introduced the long call window we have now.

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Originally Posted by tsquare

Fair enough. But if it still sucks, it still sucks, and IMHO, that is inexcusable. If it results in fewer pilots required, THAT is a CONCESSION. If the above 2 are true, I want to be paid handsomely for giving that up. The percentage goes up with each concession.

Originally Posted by Herkflyr

I doubt 10% of our seniority list even read these forums, and probably not 1-2% opine on them.

I do find them entertaining, worthy of reading, and occasionally enlightening. But I also think that the mindset you find here truly does not reflect the average line pilot--for good and bad. If you were to take the pulse of the various forums after every TA that has been reached in the internet era, you would think that every one would go down in flames with overwhelming NO votes. In fact at DAL we have never NOT ratified a TA!

I'm not even saying that is a good thing either--there are at least two TAs that I believe we should have shot down, if not more. But that doesn't change the fact that the typical line pilot tends to vote yes more than the typical message board posting pilot.

Originally Posted by Cogf16

I think 3 hrs a day is low but 5 aday??? A week of vacation should cover a typical 4 day trip, say 22-25 hours. So I'd be happy with 3.5 hrs/day How can you justify needing 5 a day? Who works 35 flt hours in a week?(other than some long intl trips) I would rather spend negotiating capital on something other than this.

Frats,

Originally Posted by tsquare

Has anybody done back of the napkin math on how many jobs the reserve concessions will cost?

Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp

The crappy regional I used to work for paid 3.75 a day on vacation. 3.15 a day is very poor. I can't imagine anything less than 4.

FDX gets 6, FYI.

Not to mention, as has been pointed out, our rsv system goes by days available to the company, not days off. So if you have a week of vacation, you actually don't get 7+12 days off, you lose a couple days off in the process. That's pretty poor.

Originally Posted by Roadkill

Flew with several captains recently whose answer to everything I said was "well retirements are about to kick in and that will solve all your scope/stagnation concerns". No matter what I said on the company shrinking faster than we're retiring, or that concessionary steps like in this last NNP reduce the need for pilots faster than projected retirements, same answer:
"Retirements are gonna go crazy soon and for every 1 retirement there will be another leave for medical etc."

None of them had any numbers, they all thought retirements would be happening in 2013, and could/would not respond to the actual retirement projections posted on the ALPA calculator. They frankly didn't believe me that we're shrinking faster than retirements. It's frustrating to try to explain to them how small decreases in required manning can put off hiring and totally negate retirements through 2015 or 2016 easily.

So for this last year or so, 1 Apr 11 through the latest seniority list, here are some numbers:
1Apr11 thru 1 May 12
total pilots 1Apr11: 12,276 from seniority list that date
total pilots 1May12: 12,004
pilots lost: 272
total scheduled retirements from 1Apr11 thru 1May12: 9 (from ProjRet1104)
total spots I moved backwards between 2May11 pilot cat list (1106a) and most recent cat list as of 22Mar12:
73NB
SLC -9
NYC -4
ATL -11
CVG -1
LAX 0

320B, M88B are both similar-- a 0-10% drop in all cats but one (M88B in NYC I moved up 3%, still >3% avg. loss).

What's this say? That from all the best data published (category lists, retirement lists, and seniority lists) comparing the same period as close as you can, as a 10 year seniority guy I moved BACKWARDS 0-10%, but definitely backwards, in all spots, WHILE the company had 9 projected retirements and actually lost 272 pilots off the list! If I assume a 3% avg. backslide (which my thorough study of my cat #'s is way over), that's 360 pilots from todays 12,000 list. But we LOST 272, so that means the company actually SHRANK BY 632 PILOT POSITIONS! While we had 9 retirements. ( I was unable to pull last year's D2 and D3 requirements and only had Aug11 numbers to compare to current D2/D3 nums, and kept losing Deltanet connection. The D2/D3 differential was larger than my anecdotal 632, so I went with my derived empirical number as the lesser).

Now let's look to the future at these big supposed "game changing retirements":
2012: 13
2013: 80
2014: 132
2015: 184
2016: 246
Do you see how these retirements compare to what Delta shrank this year alone, 632 positions? They're nothing, easily subsumed within Delta's ability to reduce by marginal efficiencies! Just a 2% change in the pilot needs via some efficiency such as increased reserve utilization (!) will carry us all the way through the beginning of 2015 with no hiring right at the exact same (Overstaffed!) level! If you add another 2 years of retirements in 2015 & 2016 you lose another 430 pilots, that's 3.5% of today's list--just about "right sized" for increased reserve utilization and reduction of over-staffing at the end of 2016 with NO HIRING.

Now there will be all sorts of folks critique these trajectory predictions and claim, "Delta is about to grow, we'll need more pilots etc.", but NO DATA supports that claim... the only data out there shows a continuous and steady reduction of pilots required, outsourced flying and reduced needs. THIS is the real data and how it affects the bottom of the list. Retirements through 2016 are essentially negated by the company's demonstrated and historical plan and operations.

Originally Posted by hockeypilot44

This is why I call myself a "permanent reserve." I have been with the company about 4 1/2 years. If we don't hire until the end of 2016, I'll have spent my first 9 years at this company on reserve on one of the bottom airplanes. It might even be worse than that when we move the line on scope again. The numbers are not pretty. We keep getting told of the mass retirements that are coming up. This reminds me of the great pilot shortage we keep hearing about. It is a pipe dream. I don't think Delta will ever grow again.

Originally Posted by More Bacon

Exactly.
Sure, I'll move up 4000 (or whatever) in the next 10 years. Pretty worthless if the company shrinks by 6,000 pilots in the same period.