Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
04-05-2012, 01:05 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: A big one that looks like a little one
Posts: 633
Originally Posted by chuck416
Seriously. Is that YOUR plan. "...the kind of luck that wakes you up in the middle of the night..."? Exactly what rock were you found under anyway...
Of course it's my plan. Safety won't improve once you find your(ego)self immune to risk.
04-05-2012, 01:23 PM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,038
Absolutely correct. We’ve had 600+ pilots depart the property from 2009-2011. I find it hard to believe that less will leave in the next 3 years. Projections from R&I about a year ago had roughly 750 pilots leaving from 2012 – 2014 (based on 45% leaving prior to 65, which seemed to jive with the data on when pilots were actually punching out at the time.) Add some more for lead time (a member of the crew resources team said about 12-16 months to replace a retiree, though that was a few years ago,) plus extra bodies we likely need for the rest rules, (plus elimination of recovery obligations) and you could easily see us being 1000 pilots behind the curve by the time the sun comes up in 2015. We actually look like we will have a net *gain* in airframes in 2012, and stay basically status quo in 2013.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands.
I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.”
Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands.
I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.”
Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year.
When a large number of guys have Master's Degrees, Delta can't honestly expect for them to be content with a ten year span of being a FO on entry level equipment and making less than they were in the 1990's. A pay cut is one thing, this sort of stagnation is something else. It took several displacements to get me to where I am today.
While Richard might enjoy sitting at C E Woolman's desk, none of of kid ourselves with nostalgic notions about the way the Company sees itself. Delta is a brand manager which cares not who makes the product. In turn, our loyalty is about as deep as an excel spread-sheet. We will do a good job while we are here. When it is time to move on, it will be time to move on.
ACL is the only reason I'm here now. Hey, ACL, my projections on stagnation post merger, was I right, or was I right?
04-05-2012, 01:29 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2008
Position: A-320/A
Posts: 588
Apparently the rock that disagrees with your rock. You're obviously very certain in your abilities to not cause a fatal accident. Kudos to you. You deserve a 60% raise. Hey someone get Chuck here a raise.
Of course it's my plan. Safety won't improve once you find your(ego)self immune to risk.
Of course it's my plan. Safety won't improve once you find your(ego)self immune to risk.
04-05-2012, 01:29 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 737 Capt
Posts: 1,166
Fyi; the company is stating that the get an increase of 1% of the new rest rules. Now I am sure they are just modeling after the rules and not the PWA, but that is what they have said.
Crew Resources is just publishing what is "known" at the current time. We are about 1000 bodies over. With no real "growth" they do not see a need. Now our international block hr plan is going to increase steadily towards 2014 and if you combine this with retirements, it will drive hiring. Add a narrowbody jet order, or any equipment staying around, and they will need bodies. I suspect that we will see a need nlt than next spring. I would be surprised to see them not hire this winter, but if they plan on acquiring an airline or parts of an airline, there is no need to hire. They most certainly would run the operation on the red line waiting for that.
Crew Resources is just publishing what is "known" at the current time. We are about 1000 bodies over. With no real "growth" they do not see a need. Now our international block hr plan is going to increase steadily towards 2014 and if you combine this with retirements, it will drive hiring. Add a narrowbody jet order, or any equipment staying around, and they will need bodies. I suspect that we will see a need nlt than next spring. I would be surprised to see them not hire this winter, but if they plan on acquiring an airline or parts of an airline, there is no need to hire. They most certainly would run the operation on the red line waiting for that.
04-05-2012, 01:33 PM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,038
If put in the system with no margin for weather or operational delays ... meaning massive, rolling, cancellations if things go bad. In reality, there is weather and operational effluvia, meaning the crew rest rules are effectively neutral.
04-05-2012, 01:37 PM
Can't abide NAI
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Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,038
04-05-2012, 01:45 PM
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: MSP7ERB
Posts: 1,886
This is what Jim Graham said in the March 2nd weekly update:
"Hi everybody, this is Jim Graham with the weekly Flight Operations Update for Friday, March 2nd.* Delta recently announced a voluntary retirement program. We have been asked by some on the line why, unlike the previous two voluntary programs in 2009 and 2011, this program is not being offered to pilots. I want you to know that when the company contemplates any voluntary program, we always consider including all employee groups, including the pilots. Of course one of the primary considerations for including any front-line employees in such a program is the possible negative impact on the operation. Crew Resources and Pilot Scheduling did a thorough analysis of the operational impact should pilots participate in the program. We took a hard look at both the Network plan and our staffing plan going forward. While it is true that we are currently carrying a small surplus of pilots, our staffing plan must take into account unanticipated pilot retirements and the addition of the new 737-900. The result of our analysis was that reducing pilot staffing further at this time would have the potential to negatively impact the operation.* Retirements drive extensive re-training and backfill requirements.* These unique training requirements for Flight Operations and pilots would simply not allow for pilot participation in the current program.* In the end, it was not the right operational decision, nor a decision that would be in the best interest of the entire pilot group at this time. "
For some reason the number "200" comes to mind, but I can't find anything to back it up. "1000" overstaffed doesn't seem like a "small surplus", though.
"Hi everybody, this is Jim Graham with the weekly Flight Operations Update for Friday, March 2nd.* Delta recently announced a voluntary retirement program. We have been asked by some on the line why, unlike the previous two voluntary programs in 2009 and 2011, this program is not being offered to pilots. I want you to know that when the company contemplates any voluntary program, we always consider including all employee groups, including the pilots. Of course one of the primary considerations for including any front-line employees in such a program is the possible negative impact on the operation. Crew Resources and Pilot Scheduling did a thorough analysis of the operational impact should pilots participate in the program. We took a hard look at both the Network plan and our staffing plan going forward. While it is true that we are currently carrying a small surplus of pilots, our staffing plan must take into account unanticipated pilot retirements and the addition of the new 737-900. The result of our analysis was that reducing pilot staffing further at this time would have the potential to negatively impact the operation.* Retirements drive extensive re-training and backfill requirements.* These unique training requirements for Flight Operations and pilots would simply not allow for pilot participation in the current program.* In the end, it was not the right operational decision, nor a decision that would be in the best interest of the entire pilot group at this time. "
For some reason the number "200" comes to mind, but I can't find anything to back it up. "1000" overstaffed doesn't seem like a "small surplus", though.
04-05-2012, 01:50 PM
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Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
04-05-2012, 02:10 PM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
Thanks for a new "word of the day." I'm smarter for being here.
ef·flu·vi·um
n. pl. ef·flu·vi·a or ef·flu·vi·ums 1. A usually invisible emanation or exhalation, as of vapor or gas.
2. a. A byproduct or residue; waste.
b. The odorous fumes given off by waste or decaying matter.
3. An impalpable emanation; an aura.
04-05-2012, 02:16 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,236
Bar;
Thanks for a new "word of the day." I'm smarter for being here.
ef·flu·vi·um
n. pl. ef·flu·vi·a or ef·flu·vi·ums 1. A usually invisible emanation or exhalation, as of vapor or gas.
2. a. A byproduct or residue; waste.
b. The odorous fumes given off by waste or decaying matter.
3. An impalpable emanation; an aura.
Thanks for a new "word of the day." I'm smarter for being here.
ef·flu·vi·um
n. pl. ef·flu·vi·a or ef·flu·vi·ums 1. A usually invisible emanation or exhalation, as of vapor or gas.
2. a. A byproduct or residue; waste.
b. The odorous fumes given off by waste or decaying matter.
3. An impalpable emanation; an aura.
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