Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
02-15-2012, 04:58 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
Hedge fund manager's brief, informal, review of Delta's 10K: (not my work)
-----
DAL's 2011 10-K is out (attached). I've delved into it, and it's really weak on the detailed info that DAL used to publish in the past (like changes to the Connection Carrier agreements and termination dates).
Noteworthy in DAL's calendar 2011 results is that their Pax & Cargo operations revenue ($31.3B) was about $1.8B short of expenses ($33.1B), ref. pg. 48 (.pdf file pg. 55). The only reason DAL made a profit in 2011 was due to their $3.8B in "other" income (bag fees, outside MRO business, etc.).
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago. While DCI is down over 100 aircraft, net; Comair and Mesaba combined, have lost north of 200 aircraft since their respective "bankruptcies". Also, while not mentioned specifically there-in, all of MSA's Saabs have now been removed from DCI revenue service, and DAL will be removing the last of the 12 SKW Brasilias (pro-rate operation) by the end of May (~ 3 months away).
If you're interested, pages 20, 26, 27, 63, and 64 (.pdf file pgs. 26, 32, 33, 72, and 73) detail DAL's five-year $1.2B JFK expansion program, and states that they're spending $100M at LGA to renovate and consolidate the DAL and USAir terminals into their NE domestic hub.
Next, and this is revealing, take a look at pg. 72 (.pdf file pg. 81), for Delta's discussion of lease obligations. The first table is their capital lease obligations (rent-to-own). Note how their values decrease with time, and then for the period beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) it totals only $323M - less than the value of two years' worth of capital lease payments at the 2016 rate. This points to either a shedding of airframes, or the completion of the capital leases. The very next table does point to a substantial shedding of airframes. Look at the second table on that page ,"Operating Leases" (rent and return). Note that the third column in this table is the projected value of the operating lease expenses for DCI, going forward. While the Republic CPA for the 24 CHQ E-145s terminates in mid-2016, reflected by the 11% reduction in Delta's DCI operating lease expenses in that year, note that the value of the DCI operating lease expenses beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) totals only $928M - substantially less than the value of two years' worth of operating lease payments at the reduced 2016 rate of $449M. This projection supports their prior statements regarding the removal of ALL of PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 aircraft by year-end 2017. While ASA/XJT and SKW have a defined wind-down of aircraft lease returns through September 8, 2020, PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 fleet loses its entire CPA on December 31, 2017. Those 141 aircraft comprise 71% of PCL/MSA's jet fleet, and would leave them with just 57 CRJ-900s (assuming PCL doesn't file for bankruptcy protection, and reject the CPA for the 16 pre-merger PCL -900s).
Exhibit "A" on .pdf file pg. 127 (Exhibit 10.17, page 11) shows the DCI completion and A14 goals for 2012.
Finally, if you've ever wondered how DAL mgt.'s bonuses are calculated, exhibits 10.15 and 10.17 (.pdf file pgs. 104 - 127) detail those specifics for you.
-----
DAL's 2011 10-K is out (attached). I've delved into it, and it's really weak on the detailed info that DAL used to publish in the past (like changes to the Connection Carrier agreements and termination dates).
Noteworthy in DAL's calendar 2011 results is that their Pax & Cargo operations revenue ($31.3B) was about $1.8B short of expenses ($33.1B), ref. pg. 48 (.pdf file pg. 55). The only reason DAL made a profit in 2011 was due to their $3.8B in "other" income (bag fees, outside MRO business, etc.).
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago. While DCI is down over 100 aircraft, net; Comair and Mesaba combined, have lost north of 200 aircraft since their respective "bankruptcies". Also, while not mentioned specifically there-in, all of MSA's Saabs have now been removed from DCI revenue service, and DAL will be removing the last of the 12 SKW Brasilias (pro-rate operation) by the end of May (~ 3 months away).
If you're interested, pages 20, 26, 27, 63, and 64 (.pdf file pgs. 26, 32, 33, 72, and 73) detail DAL's five-year $1.2B JFK expansion program, and states that they're spending $100M at LGA to renovate and consolidate the DAL and USAir terminals into their NE domestic hub.
Next, and this is revealing, take a look at pg. 72 (.pdf file pg. 81), for Delta's discussion of lease obligations. The first table is their capital lease obligations (rent-to-own). Note how their values decrease with time, and then for the period beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) it totals only $323M - less than the value of two years' worth of capital lease payments at the 2016 rate. This points to either a shedding of airframes, or the completion of the capital leases. The very next table does point to a substantial shedding of airframes. Look at the second table on that page ,"Operating Leases" (rent and return). Note that the third column in this table is the projected value of the operating lease expenses for DCI, going forward. While the Republic CPA for the 24 CHQ E-145s terminates in mid-2016, reflected by the 11% reduction in Delta's DCI operating lease expenses in that year, note that the value of the DCI operating lease expenses beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) totals only $928M - substantially less than the value of two years' worth of operating lease payments at the reduced 2016 rate of $449M. This projection supports their prior statements regarding the removal of ALL of PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 aircraft by year-end 2017. While ASA/XJT and SKW have a defined wind-down of aircraft lease returns through September 8, 2020, PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 fleet loses its entire CPA on December 31, 2017. Those 141 aircraft comprise 71% of PCL/MSA's jet fleet, and would leave them with just 57 CRJ-900s (assuming PCL doesn't file for bankruptcy protection, and reject the CPA for the 16 pre-merger PCL -900s).
Exhibit "A" on .pdf file pg. 127 (Exhibit 10.17, page 11) shows the DCI completion and A14 goals for 2012.
Finally, if you've ever wondered how DAL mgt.'s bonuses are calculated, exhibits 10.15 and 10.17 (.pdf file pgs. 104 - 127) detail those specifics for you.
02-15-2012, 05:02 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
... have to revisit this, kids screaming...
02-15-2012, 05:09 AM
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 29
I realize I'm kind of opening a pandora's box here. Or in layman's terms, I'm a cat that's accidentally walked into the bar at a Holiday Inn south of Cleveland where all the SWA pilots are getting half off beer specials.
But, I wanted to see years of service for various places on the seniority list.
Please ignore the NWA/DAL differences because it's a different topic but if I didn't do both then it wouldn't have been accurate and someone would've corrected it.
BTW, 11 years of seniority barely, by two numbers, holds a weekends off line on ATLM88B.
But, I wanted to see years of service for various places on the seniority list.
Please ignore the NWA/DAL differences because it's a different topic but if I didn't do both then it wouldn't have been accurate and someone would've corrected it.
BTW, 11 years of seniority barely, by two numbers, holds a weekends off line on ATLM88B.
02-15-2012, 05:39 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Posts: 403
To one of the scope numbers experts:
How close is our mainline fleet to the number where an increase of one mainline jet allows three additional RJs? If they keep the 9's here to overlap with the -900 deliveries, could it push us over the threshold? Scary thought when you think about adding 200-300 RJs since that number does not go back down when they do park the 9's. Could that be part of the push for a contract extension? Keeps the current (ridiculous) scope clause in effect long enough for them to take advantage of it?
How close is our mainline fleet to the number where an increase of one mainline jet allows three additional RJs? If they keep the 9's here to overlap with the -900 deliveries, could it push us over the threshold? Scary thought when you think about adding 200-300 RJs since that number does not go back down when they do park the 9's. Could that be part of the push for a contract extension? Keeps the current (ridiculous) scope clause in effect long enough for them to take advantage of it?
02-15-2012, 05:39 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: ATL717A
Posts: 890
02-15-2012, 05:39 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Since every working group at the airline got DOH, but the pilots have a 1987 pilot at 5% and a 1986 pilot at 30%. Lets see how this works when we merge with a airline like Jetblue. Will a 11 year JB pilot be senior to a DAL pilot with 35 years since he is at a higher relative seniority?
The FA gets paid for 50 passengers as each airplane needs one FA for 50 passengers. They bid on all jets and DOH works for them because no matter what they fly, they get paid the same.
The baggage handlers throw bags, the gate agents work a gate, and get paid the same no matter what airplane they board.
The dispatchers did not have a DOH integration. They had a integration that was based upon what types of schedules they held. DOH would have put fDAL employees that were intra-company transfers way ahead of their counterparts of NWA.
Wrt to us pilots and your supposed B6 intergration. Difference with the NWA/DAL marriage and them is WB jets. We have them they do not. Fences are one way to deal with that disparity, but so is slotting them a lot lower than a 320A seat and then leaving the SLI with no fences. Point is that making an assumption on how a SLI will go is nearsighted. Each will reside on its on facts. Thinking we would just slot in a AS, B6, NKS pilot in to where they sit today is, imo, a bad assumption.
02-15-2012, 05:40 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: blueJet
Posts: 4,534
02-15-2012, 05:44 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
To one of the scope numbers experts:
How close is our mainline fleet to the number where an increase of one mainline jet allows three additional RJs? If they keep the 9's here to overlap with the -900 deliveries, could it push us over the threshold? Scary thought when you think about adding 200-300 RJs since that number does not go back down when they do park the 9's. Could that be part of the push for a contract extension? Keeps the current (ridiculous) scope clause in effect long enough for them to take advantage of it?
How close is our mainline fleet to the number where an increase of one mainline jet allows three additional RJs? If they keep the 9's here to overlap with the -900 deliveries, could it push us over the threshold? Scary thought when you think about adding 200-300 RJs since that number does not go back down when they do park the 9's. Could that be part of the push for a contract extension? Keeps the current (ridiculous) scope clause in effect long enough for them to take advantage of it?
The 739 deliveries are not net positive. We are not planning any growth and the current plan is for there to be a one for one replacement of an existing jet with those orders.
We are currently at 709 mainline jets. We need to go to 767(merger number of total jets) before they can add the 154 76 seat jet. Because management knows that will not happen, they have basically added a ton of 70 seat jets to the point that we are within 7 70/76 seat jets for the total 255 cap. If we get the 767th jet back on property, the total number does not go above 255, only the number of 76 seat jets is raised. It is three for one, so if we got jet 767, they would go from 153 allowed to 156.
02-15-2012, 05:46 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: blueJet
Posts: 4,534
Hedge fund manager's brief, informal, review of Delta's 10K: (not my work)
-----
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago.
-----
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago.
Last edited by Boomer; 02-15-2012 at 05:47 AM. Reason: ACL Beat me to it.
02-15-2012, 05:54 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Posts: 710
Hedge fund manager's brief, informal, review of Delta's 10K: (not my work)
-----
DAL's 2011 10-K is out (attached). I've delved into it, and it's really weak on the detailed info that DAL used to publish in the past (like changes to the Connection Carrier agreements and termination dates).
Noteworthy in DAL's calendar 2011 results is that their Pax & Cargo operations revenue ($31.3B) was about $1.8B short of expenses ($33.1B), ref. pg. 48 (.pdf file pg. 55). The only reason DAL made a profit in 2011 was due to their $3.8B in "other" income (bag fees, outside MRO business, etc.).
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago. While DCI is down over 100 aircraft, net; Comair and Mesaba combined, have lost north of 200 aircraft since their respective "bankruptcies". Also, while not mentioned specifically there-in, all of MSA's Saabs have now been removed from DCI revenue service, and DAL will be removing the last of the 12 SKW Brasilias (pro-rate operation) by the end of May (~ 3 months away).
If you're interested, pages 20, 26, 27, 63, and 64 (.pdf file pgs. 26, 32, 33, 72, and 73) detail DAL's five-year $1.2B JFK expansion program, and states that they're spending $100M at LGA to renovate and consolidate the DAL and USAir terminals into their NE domestic hub.
Next, and this is revealing, take a look at pg. 72 (.pdf file pg. 81), for Delta's discussion of lease obligations. The first table is their capital lease obligations (rent-to-own). Note how their values decrease with time, and then for the period beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) it totals only $323M - less than the value of two years' worth of capital lease payments at the 2016 rate. This points to either a shedding of airframes, or the completion of the capital leases. The very next table does point to a substantial shedding of airframes. Look at the second table on that page ,"Operating Leases" (rent and return). Note that the third column in this table is the projected value of the operating lease expenses for DCI, going forward. While the Republic CPA for the 24 CHQ E-145s terminates in mid-2016, reflected by the 11% reduction in Delta's DCI operating lease expenses in that year, note that the value of the DCI operating lease expenses beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) totals only $928M - substantially less than the value of two years' worth of operating lease payments at the reduced 2016 rate of $449M. This projection supports their prior statements regarding the removal of ALL of PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 aircraft by year-end 2017. While ASA/XJT and SKW have a defined wind-down of aircraft lease returns through September 8, 2020, PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 fleet loses its entire CPA on December 31, 2017. Those 141 aircraft comprise 71% of PCL/MSA's jet fleet, and would leave them with just 57 CRJ-900s (assuming PCL doesn't file for bankruptcy protection, and reject the CPA for the 16 pre-merger PCL -900s).
Exhibit "A" on .pdf file pg. 127 (Exhibit 10.17, page 11) shows the DCI completion and A14 goals for 2012.
Finally, if you've ever wondered how DAL mgt.'s bonuses are calculated, exhibits 10.15 and 10.17 (.pdf file pgs. 104 - 127) detail those specifics for you.
-----
DAL's 2011 10-K is out (attached). I've delved into it, and it's really weak on the detailed info that DAL used to publish in the past (like changes to the Connection Carrier agreements and termination dates).
Noteworthy in DAL's calendar 2011 results is that their Pax & Cargo operations revenue ($31.3B) was about $1.8B short of expenses ($33.1B), ref. pg. 48 (.pdf file pg. 55). The only reason DAL made a profit in 2011 was due to their $3.8B in "other" income (bag fees, outside MRO business, etc.).
In other news, DAL didn't park any more DC-9s in the fourth quarter, they're still at 24, so we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for those to leave... Mainline is now down to 707 aircraft, approx. 50 aircraft less than when DAL and NWA merged, nearly four years ago. While DCI is down over 100 aircraft, net; Comair and Mesaba combined, have lost north of 200 aircraft since their respective "bankruptcies". Also, while not mentioned specifically there-in, all of MSA's Saabs have now been removed from DCI revenue service, and DAL will be removing the last of the 12 SKW Brasilias (pro-rate operation) by the end of May (~ 3 months away).
If you're interested, pages 20, 26, 27, 63, and 64 (.pdf file pgs. 26, 32, 33, 72, and 73) detail DAL's five-year $1.2B JFK expansion program, and states that they're spending $100M at LGA to renovate and consolidate the DAL and USAir terminals into their NE domestic hub.
Next, and this is revealing, take a look at pg. 72 (.pdf file pg. 81), for Delta's discussion of lease obligations. The first table is their capital lease obligations (rent-to-own). Note how their values decrease with time, and then for the period beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) it totals only $323M - less than the value of two years' worth of capital lease payments at the 2016 rate. This points to either a shedding of airframes, or the completion of the capital leases. The very next table does point to a substantial shedding of airframes. Look at the second table on that page ,"Operating Leases" (rent and return). Note that the third column in this table is the projected value of the operating lease expenses for DCI, going forward. While the Republic CPA for the 24 CHQ E-145s terminates in mid-2016, reflected by the 11% reduction in Delta's DCI operating lease expenses in that year, note that the value of the DCI operating lease expenses beyond 2016 (2017 and subsequent) totals only $928M - substantially less than the value of two years' worth of operating lease payments at the reduced 2016 rate of $449M. This projection supports their prior statements regarding the removal of ALL of PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 aircraft by year-end 2017. While ASA/XJT and SKW have a defined wind-down of aircraft lease returns through September 8, 2020, PCL/MSA's CRJ-200 fleet loses its entire CPA on December 31, 2017. Those 141 aircraft comprise 71% of PCL/MSA's jet fleet, and would leave them with just 57 CRJ-900s (assuming PCL doesn't file for bankruptcy protection, and reject the CPA for the 16 pre-merger PCL -900s).
Exhibit "A" on .pdf file pg. 127 (Exhibit 10.17, page 11) shows the DCI completion and A14 goals for 2012.
Finally, if you've ever wondered how DAL mgt.'s bonuses are calculated, exhibits 10.15 and 10.17 (.pdf file pgs. 104 - 127) detail those specifics for you.
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