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Old 06-15-2009, 09:51 PM
  #8481  
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Man your crystal balls must be smoking from all this speculation.

I'll wait for real info so I don't have to call the doc for blood pressure medication
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Old 06-15-2009, 10:34 PM
  #8482  
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Nevermind..........................
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Old 06-16-2009, 04:26 AM
  #8483  
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Originally Posted by iceman49
Read Boyds June 8th hot flash.
While Boyd is usually better than most of the aviation "experts", lately he seems to want to spend more time making his political statements rather than provide objective analysis. It is clear he doesn't like the current administration and his analysis feels more like a rant.

Note: this is not meant to start a political discussion that is prohibited on this board, just commenting on the objectivity of his analysis.
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Old 06-16-2009, 05:15 AM
  #8484  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Note: this is not meant to start a political discussion that is prohibited on this board, just commenting on the objectivity of his analysis.
Don't worry, at this point I think it would take an act of god to close this thread.
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Old 06-16-2009, 05:45 AM
  #8485  
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Well, do not take Boyd's word for it.

Delta, AMR See Revenue Vanish as New York Business Fares Tumble

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. airlines faced with losses in the recession are slashing business-class fares from New York to London, Zurich and other finance centers by more than 50 percent to try to fill planes.

A business-class ticket from New York’s Kennedy Airport to UBS AG’s hometown of Zurich costs $1,838 for June, 51 percent cheaper than last year, according to travel Web site Bestfares.com. Flights to London Heathrow are down 56 percent to $1,994 as banks’ job losses erode demand.

“Poof! That revenue is just plain gone,” said Henry Harteveldt, a Forrester Research Inc. analyst in San Francisco. “The front of the plane is the moneymaker. These fares could be the difference between being profitable or not.”

International business-class travel is pivotal for U.S. carriers such as Delta Air Lines Inc. and AMR Corp.’s American Airlines, the world’s two largest. Without discount competitors on trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes, the companies typically have been able to charge higher fares.

Premium tickets on overseas flights produce 25 percent of most carriers’ revenue, according to the International Air Transport Association, so the slump adds to the strain from dwindling leisure travel. IATA estimated on June 8 that North American airlines’ 2009 deficit may be $1 billion for a second straight annual loss

International traffic, as measured in miles flown by paying passengers, slid 10 percent at Delta and 8.7 percent at American through May as corporate firings and budget cuts spread. Harteveldt said that with fewer meetings, he isn’t taking any overseas trips this year after a half-dozen in 2008.

Cutting Seats
The drag from tumbling fares helped trigger last week’s seating-capacity cuts at Delta and American to shave expenses and attempt to regain pricing power.

Delta will chop an additional 5 percent of international flying starting in September, pushing its 2009 reduction to 15 percent, while American will shrink flying by 7.5 percent, 1 percentage point more than planned. The biggest cuts will be on overseas flights, AMR Chief Executive Officer Gerard Arpey said at a Bank of America Corp. conference in New York last week.

“Customer demand for international travel has fallen significantly,” Delta CEO Richard Anderson told employees on June 11.

The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index of 13 carriers slid 44 percent this year through June 12, paced by 65 percent declines for United Airlines parent UAL Corp. and US Airways Group Inc.

Carriers outside the U.S. are feeling the pressure, too.

Japan Airlines Corp., Asia’s largest carrier, said June 2 that it may cut more routes after flying 7.5 percent fewer passengers overseas in April. Air France-KLM Group, Europe’s biggest airline, will chop seating capacity by 4.5 percent.

Global Losses
Worldwide industry losses may total $9 billion this year, twice as deep as a previous forecast, IATA said. First-quarter revenue from international first- and business-class tickets fell as much as 40 percent, the Montreal-based trade group said.

Demand for premium-class service is wilting after financial companies across the globe shed almost 188,000 jobs since the end of September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“For every guy they lose in the front of the cabin, they have to make it up with three or five guys in the back,” said Vaughn Cordle, who runs consulting firm AirlineForecasts LLC in Clifton, Virginia.

The swine flu outbreak, declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization last week, also is damping revenue. Continental Airlines Inc. and Chicago-based United temporarily cut half of their flying to Mexico as demand plummeted to the country where the H1N1 flu struck first and hardest.

‘Trying to Guess’
When U.S. carriers declined to give detailed outlooks in their most-recent earnings conference calls, they were “saying they don’t know because they truly don’t know,” said Bob McAdoo, an analyst at Avondale Partners LLC in Prairie Village, Kansas.

Delta and Fort Worth, Texas-based American both said last week that job cuts were likely or on the way. Atlanta-based Delta said it must “reassess staffing needs,” while American plans to shed 1,600 jobs, or 2.4 percent of its workforce.

New York fares on some routes have fallen less than those to London and Zurich. Flying business class between New York and Dubai is $6,518, about 27 percent less than a year ago, according to Tom Parsons, the founder of Arlington, Texas-based Bestfares.com.

Coach traffic isn’t helping much. Houston-based Continental is charging $851 this month to fly to Tokyo from New Jersey’s Newark Liberty International Airport, 43 percent less than in 2008, according to Bestfares.com.

“The profitability of the flight just fails” when dominated by coach passengers, said Robert Mann of consulting firm R.W. Mann & Co. in Port Washington, New York.

Even some regulars in first- and business-class cabins may be opting to skip the meals, wine and extra legroom as travel budgets shrink and Congress fumes over luxury travel by bankers taking federal bailout money, said Forrester’s Harteveldt.

“They’d rather keep their job and fly coach,” he said.

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Old 06-16-2009, 06:13 AM
  #8486  
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Here is some good news..... Kind of. Multi Family homes for all of us that can no longer afford single family ones!

Tuesday's data were brighter: Housing starts jumped 17.2 percent in May, mostly due to a surge in multifamily construction, after sliding 12.9 percent in April. New building permits, a gauge of future building activity, rose 4 percent, the biggest gain since last June.

And inflation remained pretty tame: Producer prices climbed 0.2 percent in May, while core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, slipped 0.1 percent. Economists had expected a much sharper 0.6-percent increase amid rising energy prices.

Industrial production fell 1.1 percent in May, after a 0.7-percent drop in April. Capacity utilization fell to 68.3 percent.

Investors will also watch for market moving comments from Fed governor Kevin Warsh, who will speak on economic policy at 1:15 pm.
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Old 06-16-2009, 07:06 AM
  #8487  
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Originally Posted by BalloonChaser
Is there any pressure to have management reduce the number of regional flights between city pairs and let our "mainline" aircraft fly the reduced legs - thus reducing/eliminating the need for fuloughs? Seems if you swapped 2-3 RJ flights for 1-2 MD-88's that might help our pilots stay working if this "downturn" gets any larger!? Sorry if I've completely overlooked the obvious contract/scope/alignment of the planets clauses!?...
I'm with you and I'd like to see what DAL would do with their entire network if it was not constrained by DCI contracts. My bet is there would be few CRJ-200s and probably a heck of a lot of CRJ900s/Ejets.

However, don't forget we don't see what revenue management sees when it comes to margin and the sources of income. Some CRJ-200 markets get $1000-$1500 a ticket (look ROA up and I think SDF is the same). Some RJ markets feed a lot of income in for mainline and frequency is key to those markets, so its never as cut and dry, we may lose a lot of money if we replaced 6 CRJ200s with 2 MD88s, maybe not, I don't know what they know.

So while I'd love to cut DCI but I don't want to endanger DALs competitiveness and ability to make money and thus hurt me. So, what I'd really like to do is just start combining DCI into DAL starting with CPZ and go from there. Then that way if an Ejet is good for DAL, its good for me too.
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Old 06-16-2009, 07:50 AM
  #8488  
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I hope we aren't giving away too many of these seats. My flights have been so full lately they've had to buy people off. Could you imagine buying a RT ticket for $180, then getting a $300 travel voucher for taking a later flight? Oi! We are killing ourselves.
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Old 06-16-2009, 08:00 AM
  #8489  
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Originally Posted by johnso29
I hope we aren't giving away too many of these seats. My flights have been so full lately they've had to buy people off. Could you imagine buying a RT ticket for $180, then getting a $300 travel voucher for taking a later flight? Oi! We are killing ourselves.
Yes, my wife and child got that this weekend, but it was 400 bucks!
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Old 06-16-2009, 08:01 AM
  #8490  
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If The Company and Force Majeure our contracts, can't they do the same for the DCI contracts?
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