Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
12-04-2011, 06:10 PM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
Alpha,
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
Last edited by Bucking Bar; 12-04-2011 at 06:21 PM.
12-04-2011, 06:30 PM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
That's the push. The RLA applies to labor here not to labor overseas. It means that part of a Transnational (Us) will be under it, and some will not. Just like their labor laws do not apply here. It would be a vertical curve wrt to transnational treaties and agreements.
12-04-2011, 06:32 PM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Alpha,
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
12-04-2011, 06:32 PM
Back on TDY
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Carl,
The first rule of holes is when you are in one, stop digging. You stated unequivocally that DEBT was the problem for American and you stated unequivocally that their bankruptcy was about debt and you stated unequivocally that AMR's debt load was double Delta's. I merely asked for you to provide some proof of these statements. As usual, you just launch personal attacks, bluster about some more, and then launch some more personal attacks.
Let's address the first question, this is what an airline analyst had to say:
I can't get the tables to post but they just show in a table format the numbers listed above. Everyone in the industry knows that American has a revenue problem. They will only be able to shed a small portion of their debt in Chapter 11, because most of their debt is secured and most of their secured debt is backed by aircraft. You do understand Carl that if AMR rejects EETC's they lose the aircraft right? They don't get to wipe out the debt and keep the jets.
So in the last few years AMR revenue has dropped below industry performance. Why is that? Almost every analyst will tell you that their total network is much too small. Their own network is too small and their code shares and alliances are too small. They are losing business traffic to Delta and United, mostly Delta. That is why we are outperforming the industry in RASM momentum and AMR is underperforming. That is why AMR has to do something to make their extended network bigger or they need to fragment. They can't operate in no man's land like they are now. They used to be the big dog and now they are the little dog. That dog ain't hunting.
Now you bring out the big guns, Southwest. You say without code shares Southwest should be bankrupt. I have news for you Carl. Southwest's PRASM is light years behind us. They are light years behind us because their extended network and operating model do not attract business travelers. You do know that one round trip ticket in business class on your whale will just about buy out the entire cabin of a Southwest 737, right. They make money because they operate with a lower cost model. They serve about 80 cities total, they use one fleet type, they run an extremely lean staffing model (yes their pilots fly more hours than we do, it's a fact) and they don't care if it takes someone 9 hours to go from Baltimore to Kansas City.
In fact, Southwest has recognized that their cost model is slowly rising and they are now adapting their network to try increase their PRASM performance. They are talking about adding international, adding Hawaii, they are buying bigger aircraft, and they are trying to entice more high fare passengers to book with them. So Southwest management would be the first to tell you that it is absolutely true that their PRASM performance is so far below ours because our extended network, including code shares and alliances, dwarfs theirs. They survive because they have much lower costs also. Get it.
So Carl, please prove to me that AMR's bankruptcy is all about debt. For you to claim that, you should at least have some numbers, they are all available on Edgar. Or are you going to admit that you just made up your analysis and you made up your numbers.
No, I think you will make more personal attacks and then claim I am on FPL (I'm on vacation) and then make more personal attacks.
The first rule of holes is when you are in one, stop digging. You stated unequivocally that DEBT was the problem for American and you stated unequivocally that their bankruptcy was about debt and you stated unequivocally that AMR's debt load was double Delta's. I merely asked for you to provide some proof of these statements. As usual, you just launch personal attacks, bluster about some more, and then launch some more personal attacks.
Let's address the first question, this is what an airline analyst had to say:
- "In 2011 AMR should lose $1.140 billion while Delta should earn $775 million, a pretax difference of $1.9 billion. As the table clearly shows, were AMR to magically have total seat mile costs equal to Delta, it would only close one-third of the profitability gap versus Delta. We have chosen Delta as the comparison standard since LCC is a much shorter hop carrier and the UAL data may be distorted by the ongoing consolidation of data for Continental and United."
- "The bigger issue for American is, by far, its inability to generate unit revenues, or revenues per available seat mile, equal to its competitors. The table below compares AMR unit revenue performance to Delta. Were AMR to generate passenger revenues per seat mile at the level of Delta, the gap between these two carriers would shrink by $910 million or 50 percent more than the gap on the cost side of the equation."
- "Interestingly, the table [click here] shows that, in the early part of the last decade, AMR's RASM [revenue per available seat mile] was at a level above the industry. Over time, however, the industry performance's has surpassed that of AMR. From a revenue perspective, the industry is now more productive than is American."
I can't get the tables to post but they just show in a table format the numbers listed above. Everyone in the industry knows that American has a revenue problem. They will only be able to shed a small portion of their debt in Chapter 11, because most of their debt is secured and most of their secured debt is backed by aircraft. You do understand Carl that if AMR rejects EETC's they lose the aircraft right? They don't get to wipe out the debt and keep the jets.
So in the last few years AMR revenue has dropped below industry performance. Why is that? Almost every analyst will tell you that their total network is much too small. Their own network is too small and their code shares and alliances are too small. They are losing business traffic to Delta and United, mostly Delta. That is why we are outperforming the industry in RASM momentum and AMR is underperforming. That is why AMR has to do something to make their extended network bigger or they need to fragment. They can't operate in no man's land like they are now. They used to be the big dog and now they are the little dog. That dog ain't hunting.
Now you bring out the big guns, Southwest. You say without code shares Southwest should be bankrupt. I have news for you Carl. Southwest's PRASM is light years behind us. They are light years behind us because their extended network and operating model do not attract business travelers. You do know that one round trip ticket in business class on your whale will just about buy out the entire cabin of a Southwest 737, right. They make money because they operate with a lower cost model. They serve about 80 cities total, they use one fleet type, they run an extremely lean staffing model (yes their pilots fly more hours than we do, it's a fact) and they don't care if it takes someone 9 hours to go from Baltimore to Kansas City.
In fact, Southwest has recognized that their cost model is slowly rising and they are now adapting their network to try increase their PRASM performance. They are talking about adding international, adding Hawaii, they are buying bigger aircraft, and they are trying to entice more high fare passengers to book with them. So Southwest management would be the first to tell you that it is absolutely true that their PRASM performance is so far below ours because our extended network, including code shares and alliances, dwarfs theirs. They survive because they have much lower costs also. Get it.
So Carl, please prove to me that AMR's bankruptcy is all about debt. For you to claim that, you should at least have some numbers, they are all available on Edgar. Or are you going to admit that you just made up your analysis and you made up your numbers.
No, I think you will make more personal attacks and then claim I am on FPL (I'm on vacation) and then make more personal attacks.
"American Airlines, Can't Overcome Debt, Files For Bankruptcy' - Time Newsfeed
"DALLAS — The parent company of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday, seeking relief from crushing debt caused by high fuel prices and expensive labor contracts that its competitors shed years ago.....Horton said the board of directors unanimously decided on Monday night to file for bankruptcy. In a filing with federal bankruptcy court in New York on Tuesday, AMR said it had $29.6 billion in debt and $24.7 billion in assets...." - News-journal.com
"FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — American Airlines and its parent company are filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as they seek to cut costs and unload massive debt built up by years of high jet fuel prices and labor struggles." - Associated Press
"AMR was also facing some large debt payments. The company had $1.8 billion due by the end of 2012. The net debt at the end of the third quarter was $16.9 billion. And when $7.9 billion in underfunded pension benefits and $2.5 billion in other long-term liabilities are added, the company has close to $30 billion in debt and other long-term obligations." Star-Telegram
"The parent company of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy protection yesterday, seeking relief from crushing debt caused by high fuel prices and expensive labour contracts.." The Independent
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Try as I might to find it alfaromeo, I couldn't find a SINGLE news story to back up your claim that American Airlines is where it is because of a lack of Joint Ventures and/or code share agreements.
You're embarrassing yourself. But I urge you to continue. After all, since I'm paying your flight pay loss, I want to feel I'm getting my money's worth.
Carl
12-04-2011, 06:33 PM
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,730
12-04-2011, 06:43 PM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
12-04-2011, 06:43 PM
Back on TDY
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"American Airlines, Can't Overcome Debt, Files For Bankruptcy' - Time Newsfeed
"DALLAS — The parent company of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday, seeking relief from crushing debt caused by high fuel prices and expensive labor contracts that its competitors shed years ago.....Horton said the board of directors unanimously decided on Monday night to file for bankruptcy. In a filing with federal bankruptcy court in New York on Tuesday, AMR said it had $29.6 billion in debt and $24.7 billion in assets...." - News-journal.com
"FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — American Airlines and its parent company are filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as they seek to cut costs and unload massive debt built up by years of high jet fuel prices and labor struggles." - Associated Press
"AMR was also facing some large debt payments. The company had $1.8 billion due by the end of 2012. The net debt at the end of the third quarter was $16.9 billion. And when $7.9 billion in underfunded pension benefits and $2.5 billion in other long-term liabilities are added, the company has close to $30 billion in debt and other long-term obligations." Star-Telegram
"The parent company of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy protection yesterday, seeking relief from crushing debt caused by high fuel prices and expensive labour contracts.." The Independent
That's correct. You get FPL to do the bidding of the MEC. You clearly are trying to spin and shill for the MEC when you post here, ergo...
Carl
12-04-2011, 06:45 PM
Back on TDY
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Alpha,
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
Would you agree that American's bankrutcy is about:
(1) The cost of funding a defined benefit pension plan in a bear market (and that unfunded liability)
(2) Renegotiating aircraft leases
(3) Scope
(4) Debt
AMR surely has their fleet "cross collateralized." You probably understand the term, but for the rest of the sports fans, this means that the paper for every airplane is set up so that is does not correlate on ONE airplane. To prevent reposession, the parts are scattered everywhere ... an airframe here, one engine on that jet, another engine on this other jet, the APU sub leased to JAL, the FMC is over there ... etc. The Courts are still trying to unscrew the mess that ACA created to keep its Dorniers out of the hands of their creditors.
ACL65:
American does not have DIP financing because:
(1) They do not need it ... they have similar cash levels to Delta
(2) DIP is dangerous ... management could lose control of the Company
(3) DIP might not be available in this market. Would you lend AMR money going into 2012? Me either.
Of the various outcomes to American's bankruptcy, fragmentation is the least likely.
More likely is a retrenchment to lines which support better revenue while keeping their network intact. This will involve changes to frequency and gauge of service, better aircraft utilization and more reliance on partners like Alaska, Jet Blue and a new panopoly of regional carriers (TO THE EXTENT THEIR SCOPE IS MODIFIED TO ALLOW THIS). Eagle's scope is already destroyed. ALPA is advising the APA. If history repeats itself, so called "labor leaders" will try to engineer a quick fix to American's economic problems and use outsourcing as a form of credit to try to hold up the standards of mainline compensation.
The APA already rejected the so called B Scale to recover their flying and management published that a failure to reach an agreement on this point would trigger bankruptcy. Well, the APA stood their ground on B Scale. We will if they hold their ground on scope.
Carl
12-04-2011, 06:47 PM
Back on TDY
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
That's the push. The RLA applies to labor here not to labor overseas. It means that part of a Transnational (Us) will be under it, and some will not. Just like their labor laws do not apply here. It would be a vertical curve wrt to transnational treaties and agreements.
Carl
12-04-2011, 06:48 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Left seat of a little plane
Posts: 2,431
If he got paid 50K a year, I'd buy that BS. If he stays 30 years and gives back all his stock options if we go into BK, I'd buy in again. But he didn't and he won't.
He is well compensated and taking a 1.5 mil cut to switch to DAL don't mean $hit. Lets not be foolish and think he's in it for anything but the cash.
And just to be clear, he does not care about the employees and he does not care about you.
He is well compensated and taking a 1.5 mil cut to switch to DAL don't mean $hit. Lets not be foolish and think he's in it for anything but the cash.
And just to be clear, he does not care about the employees and he does not care about you.
What would you like to see and hear, instead of just saying what you don't like?
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