Superpilot92

the majority of CA's i fly with have no intention on doing so, i guess we'll see. With that said the guys i fly with are MEM guys and are being forced into commuting etc

gloopy

Yep. When (not if) this massive money printing fiat Keynesian bubble economy experiment fails it will be the biggest global mega-depression (in the form of long term stagflation, not anything Mad Max, etc) ever seen on a long term basis and China will be the hardest hit by far. This little fake stock rally built on the booby trap foundation of debt/stimulus and liquidity by edict is a great time to bail out of the market before all this fake wealth goes to "money heaven". There may be a little more upside before the fall, but realistically this is a good floor to get off on.

As for DL, we need to be able to compete and win. Everyone, not just "HVC's". We need to win coach pax and even belly cargo to survive the new economic reality that's coming. We need to take back control of our brand and wind down these inflexible long term outsourcing contracts and start insourcing. If we start it now and do it right, we might be able to avoid furloughs and maybe hire even as we shrink (and we will shrink...the entire industry will for a while before it grows again) and do so with a respectable contract of SWA plus reasonable premiums including scope. Our brand just may depend on it.

groundstop

I think most guys that say they are leaving around 61/62 are wishful thinking. They are going to get to that point and realize that they are going to need some extra money for their retirement. College tuition has wiped them out and they are going to want to recover from that. They have decent seniority so they can build pretty easily.

I hear a lot of guys say 62. But I have my doubts. I hate to say it, but most guys probably just have nothing better to do. Of course this doesn't only apply to pilots, but that whole age group. The rare few actually will actual retire at 60 and go fishing, travel, and visit their grandchildren.

groundstop

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

The doom and gloom is getting old in this country. You should probably get out of aviation and work for the media. If you are able to predict the market and world economy so well, why are you wasting your time flying airplanes? You could be a millionaire pretty easily.

TeddyKGB

Crew Scheduling Logic? I'm still trying to get a good feel for how things get assigned to reserve pilots and here is a scenario I was wondering about. If a pilot calls in sick for a day trip at 9pm the night before are they most likely to assign it to a long call reserve pilot or a short call resere pilot? There are tons of guys with 1 day of available left who never sem to get used.

iaflyer

When a guy calls in sick, they push a button and a trip coverage sheet is generated, using the call-out ladder from the PWA. They cover it as the PWA says. When it gets to a reserve pilot, if the trip is 12+00 hrs or more from report, it goes to a long call pilot. Less than 12 hrs, to a short-call pilot. If they're out of reserves (short or long) they keep going down the list with GS etc.

The list in iCrew is not very useful. Many of those 1 day (and other buckets) pilots are finishing a trip that day and aren't legal for a trip. If someone is ending a trip a hour before midnight and it's his last day, he will show up on that as "being available" even though there is no way he/she can fly that trip.

FlyZ

In light of these numbers, I'll repost this math. The company can shrink/outsource 200 jobs/year without even trying. We ABSOLUTELY need to recover scope in this next contract. Anyone who is interested in moving up on the seniority list needs to vote NO to a status-quo Section 1.

One scenario: company gives another little bit of flying to AS. ALPA and MGT: it's nothing, just .5% of our flying and plus it helps us make money. Company finds a way to end around the AF JV restrictions. DALPA and MGT: don't worry, they are only out of compliance by 1%...we will give them a break for now because we are actually making money. Company pulls back flying by another 1% YOY like in this AE. ALPA and MGT: well we have to do this. This is a bad economy and look how high fuel prices are. Company replaces a few more 88/90 routes with the big RJs they already have. ALPA and MGT: don't be concerned, it's only .5% of our flying, and plus look at all the 50 seaters we are parking!

Well, none of those sound too horrible, but add up those block hour cuts. 12,000 x (.5% + 1% + 1% + .5%) = 360 pilots not needed in a year. And how many retirements do we have coming, on average? I bet a the next 5+ years (maybe even 10) would average to around 360. So I don't put too much stock in the consolation "it'll happen soon enough, and once they start hiring they won't be able to stop."

"Show me the money" is great, but you damn well better show me an iron-clad scope wallet to put that money in. We gained a little stock in the merger, but I guarantee we lost much, much more than that in $ and in QOL as we have stagnated and slipped backwards.

TeddyKGB

Thanks. I have noticed that day trips often go out as white slips so that is prob why you rarely get used on your last day. Monday is my last day of reserve and I'm tempted to leave town the night before but don't want to get burned and have to come back to cover a day trip as that would be my dumb luck.

80ktsClamp

I'm usually right with you on your posts... but this one is a bit out there.

OccupyRestSeat

As I understand it, you're automatically released at noon on your last day of reserve. So if you're on long call, if you don't have a trip by midnight, they can't give you anything. Like you said, most turns with 12 or more hours' notice go out as white slips especially in the slow months.