Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
11-10-2011, 07:40 AM
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 2000 light years from home
Posts: 49
I heard that MSP is solidly the #2 hub in terms of profitability.
Reference the loan payoff: they paid it off less than one year before it was due anyway. It was an 8% interest rate with prepayment penalties before this fall. To top it off it was secured credit. Even if they hadn't paid it early, the jobs agreement was only valid through 2012, and they're 4,000 jobs over the minimum required.
MSP currently has the 2nd highest number on MAINLINE departures, as well as the 2nd best mainline/RJ ratio.
With all of this in mind, I see MSP around for a long time. I bet it shrinks a little over time as the 7ER categories are reduced system wide. I would be surprised if it wasn't a 73N base as the fleet replacements start coming in 2013. If I were to bet on it, I'd say it levels off between 1,000-1,200 pilots in a few years before slowly trickling up again.
Reference the loan payoff: they paid it off less than one year before it was due anyway. It was an 8% interest rate with prepayment penalties before this fall. To top it off it was secured credit. Even if they hadn't paid it early, the jobs agreement was only valid through 2012, and they're 4,000 jobs over the minimum required.
MSP currently has the 2nd highest number on MAINLINE departures, as well as the 2nd best mainline/RJ ratio.
With all of this in mind, I see MSP around for a long time. I bet it shrinks a little over time as the 7ER categories are reduced system wide. I would be surprised if it wasn't a 73N base as the fleet replacements start coming in 2013. If I were to bet on it, I'd say it levels off between 1,000-1,200 pilots in a few years before slowly trickling up again.
Last edited by get there itis; 11-10-2011 at 07:51 AM.
11-10-2011, 08:16 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Position: SLC 767ER Captain
Posts: 602
I don't think there will be furloughs from this AE. Its only a net surplus of 85, which is just a transient ripple on the surface in the grand scheme of things. But as Europe continues to collapse, and it will, 100%, and our economic malaise persists, and the LCC's try and find a place for their burgeoning growth based order books, we had better be willing and able to compete. Big pulldowns to save cash or impress the crackberry day trader crowd (doesn't work anyway) while competitors barf every seat we dump right back into the general capacity is a pretty sad strategy. Still worthy of massive bonuses, of course.
There will be more AE's next year. As we are able to outsource half our airline, at DCI including over 250 DC-9-10 replacement jets and hundreds of other jets, AS and their large 737's and of course all the JV's, and as our costs continue to rise as we shrink and get more senior while those we outsource to grow and get more junior, the pressure to continue the cycle will only increase.
That's why "no scope concessions" isn't going to cut it.
There will be more AE's next year. As we are able to outsource half our airline, at DCI including over 250 DC-9-10 replacement jets and hundreds of other jets, AS and their large 737's and of course all the JV's, and as our costs continue to rise as we shrink and get more senior while those we outsource to grow and get more junior, the pressure to continue the cycle will only increase.
That's why "no scope concessions" isn't going to cut it.
Is my math off or am I missing a page on the AE’s? Ha Please enlighten me. Anyone? Bueller?
11-10-2011, 08:26 AM
Underboob King
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Guppy Commander
Posts: 4,412
I haven't read all the AE related posts yet, but I seem to be missing something right out of the starting gate. As I read the AE, I see 362 Vacancies and 362 Surpluses. There isn’t a net Surplus of 85 pilots as far as I can determine. I’m not seeing where you are coming up with that number. Some posts are saying things like; “I don’t think there will be furloughs caused by this bid.” Huh? Why would anyone think this bid would trigger furloughs? Secondly, I also count 42 more Captain positions available, so when I read some of these posts saying that it was a wash, I’m sort of puzzled. Is my math off or am I missing a page on the AE’s? Ha Please enlighten me. Anyone? Bueller?
Is my math off or am I missing a page on the AE’s? Ha Please enlighten me. Anyone? Bueller?per the update,
"Even though the plan we received from Network shows a 1 percent decrease in overall pilot block hours for 2012, the bid is net neutral for the pilot group with 362 Vacancies and 362 Surpluses"
11-10-2011, 08:29 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Dismayed
Posts: 1,598
This bid reminds me of the bids in 08. Equal bids that resulted in lots of movement.
11-10-2011, 08:41 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Position: SLC 767ER Captain
Posts: 602
11-10-2011, 10:06 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
Here you go, Waves:
Net changes on the bid:
ATL: +29
DTW: -26
LAX: +5
MEM: -211
MSP: +20
NYC: +168
SEA: +15
Net A and B gain/loss breakdown by base:
ATL-
A: +25
B: +4
DTW-
A: -6
B: -20
LAX-
A: +5
B: 0
MEM-
A: -99
B: -112
MSP-
A: +20
B: 0
NYC-
A: +82
B: +86
SEA-
A: +15
B: 0
Overall:
A: +42
B: -42
Net changes on the bid:
ATL: +29
DTW: -26
LAX: +5
MEM: -211
MSP: +20
NYC: +168
SEA: +15
Net A and B gain/loss breakdown by base:
ATL-
A: +25
B: +4
DTW-
A: -6
B: -20
LAX-
A: +5
B: 0
MEM-
A: -99
B: -112
MSP-
A: +20
B: 0
NYC-
A: +82
B: +86
SEA-
A: +15
B: 0
Overall:
A: +42
B: -42
11-10-2011, 10:16 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,991
In all seriousness. I know we are going into contract negotiations but:
What the heck is going on?
ACL and to the people who know or can guess,why is DAL not being proactive in the Future pilot shortage? Are we actually going to be virtual and shrink? What is funny is that British Airways is actually placing PILOT HIRING advertisement in different publications/magazines.
TYG
What the heck is going on?
ACL and to the people who know or can guess,why is DAL not being proactive in the Future pilot shortage? Are we actually going to be virtual and shrink? What is funny is that British Airways is actually placing PILOT HIRING advertisement in different publications/magazines.
TYG
I don't know the answer to that question but look at past practice - When there was an exodus of 777 Pilots the company screamed they needed relief and DALPA granted it, in the form of PeRPs. This may have been the least crappy option, and the right thing to do at the time........But DALPA appears not to have learned anything.
DALPA should be going on record now, today, yesterday, in print telling the company about the coming flood of retirements and proposing some mitigation strategies. And most importantly DALPA should make it 100% clear that there will be no relief granted in this regard period.
There is no mystery, this is all predictable and can and should be planned for. DAL can start the hiring earlier and get the cream of the crop or can be late to the game and get FDX, SWA, UCAL, JBLU UPS etc. leftovers and rejects.
Another thing - Every guy who retires from the top at 12th year pay with 5 weeks of vacation enables a first year pay new hire with minimal vacation and probably less sick leave medical issues. It is not a direct replacement because the 12th year maxed out guy will most likely be replaced by another 12th year maxed out guy but this will eventually require more new hires and may help mitigate any costs of a planned and structured retirement program.
IF DALPA and DAL really had their **** together they would come up with a planned retirement program - sweetening the retirement for say 200 guys a year enabling 200 new hires a year allowing us to ease into the hiring phase smoothly. It may not be cost neutral but at least it would show some strategic planning and thinking.
Or DAL can wait until we are going to be short and paint ourselves into a corner where our options are give relief (SCOPE/PEPRS/CODESHARE/JVs) or certain doom and parking aircraft etc. We have seen this show before.
Scoop
11-10-2011, 10:19 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Legacy FO
Posts: 4,105
Stock Tumbling
Why is our stock down 5% suddenly?
11-10-2011, 10:23 AM
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
I don't know the answer to that question but look at past practice - When there was an exodus of 777 Pilots the company screamed they needed relief and DALPA granted it, in the form of PeRPs. This may have been the least crappy option, and the right thing to do at the time........But DALPA appears not to have learned anything.
DALPA should be going on record now, today, yesterday, in print telling the company about the coming flood of retirements and proposing some mitigation strategies. And most importantly DALPA should make it 100% clear that there will be no relief granted in this regard period.
There is no mystery, this is all predictable and can and should be planned for. DAL can start the hiring earlier and get the cream of the crop or can be late to the game and get FDX, SWA, UCAL, JBLU UPS etc. leftovers and rejects.
Another thing - Every guy who retires from the top at 12th year pay with 5 weeks of vacation enables a first year pay new hire with minimal vacation and probably less sick leave medical issues. It is not a direct replacement because the 12th year maxed out guy will most likely be replaced by another 12th year maxed out guy but this will eventually require more new hires and may help mitigate any costs of a planned and structured retirement program.
IF DALPA and DAL really had their **** together they would come up with a planned retirement program - sweetening the retirement for say 200 guys a year enabling 200 new hires a year allowing us to ease into the hiring phase smoothly. It may not be cost neutral but at least it would show some strategic planning and thinking.
Or DAL can wait until we are going to be short and paint ourselves into a corner where our options are give relief (SCOPE/PEPRS/CODESHARE/JVs) or certain doom and parking aircraft etc. We have seen this show before.
Scoop
DALPA should be going on record now, today, yesterday, in print telling the company about the coming flood of retirements and proposing some mitigation strategies. And most importantly DALPA should make it 100% clear that there will be no relief granted in this regard period.
There is no mystery, this is all predictable and can and should be planned for. DAL can start the hiring earlier and get the cream of the crop or can be late to the game and get FDX, SWA, UCAL, JBLU UPS etc. leftovers and rejects.
Another thing - Every guy who retires from the top at 12th year pay with 5 weeks of vacation enables a first year pay new hire with minimal vacation and probably less sick leave medical issues. It is not a direct replacement because the 12th year maxed out guy will most likely be replaced by another 12th year maxed out guy but this will eventually require more new hires and may help mitigate any costs of a planned and structured retirement program.
IF DALPA and DAL really had their **** together they would come up with a planned retirement program - sweetening the retirement for say 200 guys a year enabling 200 new hires a year allowing us to ease into the hiring phase smoothly. It may not be cost neutral but at least it would show some strategic planning and thinking.
Or DAL can wait until we are going to be short and paint ourselves into a corner where our options are give relief (SCOPE/PEPRS/CODESHARE/JVs) or certain doom and parking aircraft etc. We have seen this show before.
Scoop
I agree that pre-hiring would not be cost neutral... it would very likely save us a significant amount of money over the next decade. Much like not furloughing produced a huge amount of profit while everyone else was playing catch up, this would very easily produce a similar effect.
11-10-2011, 10:24 AM
seeing the large hubs...
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: 73N A
Posts: 3,745
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