Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
09-13-2011, 11:17 AM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
Would the government allow more consolidation?
I could see if LCC was split in two but if we acquired CLT/PHL Lord help us. We'd acquire LCC and shut down CLT and then one day PHL but we'd keep NYC! Which we already have anyways.
But none of this would happen before we get the seniority list together and then of course the LCC pilots would want DOH and then to vote out ALPA. Boy doesn't that just sound like fun!
Or we acquire the America West pilots, who want relative seniority. We get PHX, Ferd would be ecstatic.
So really the only real winners here is Ferd.
And when Ferd wins, we all win.
I could see if LCC was split in two but if we acquired CLT/PHL Lord help us. We'd acquire LCC and shut down CLT and then one day PHL but we'd keep NYC! Which we already have anyways.
But none of this would happen before we get the seniority list together and then of course the LCC pilots would want DOH and then to vote out ALPA. Boy doesn't that just sound like fun!
Or we acquire the America West pilots, who want relative seniority. We get PHX, Ferd would be ecstatic.
So really the only real winners here is Ferd.
And when Ferd wins, we all win.
Down the road, if LCC divests its two halves in order to maximize shareholder value, I see the possibility of us somehow getting our (and their) DCA slots back (at possibly a bargain). There is very little likelihood of us picking up other pieces IMO...not enough bang for the hassle.
I would guess that likely dance partners for us continue to be Hawaiian and AK, in that order. Hawaiian has a compatible fleet...If we order A350s, then it will just be a matter of time. 717s hmmm.
Of course I'm just spitballin' here, but it makes sense to me.
09-13-2011, 11:25 AM
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Ftb:
I hate to speculate to a certain level because I get accused of knowing something, but I really cannot see us acquiring anything more than assets from LCC. Maybe a few pilots and other personnel with the deal, but I cannot see us buying PHL. It would make sense for us to buy and shut down CLT, but that would be costly.
What I really see is AMR, and LCC along with B6. LCC's international assets would be sold, AMR's MIA hub would be paired down and maybe some sold off. Other those routes will moved to CLT where there would be better connecting traffic. MIA would still be a big player for AMR, but CLT would be the money maker. With this three way tie up, AMR/LCC would not need B6's JFK terminal and frankly that is what DAL needs.
Some signs of a shift to CLT is/are the slot authorities to SA we gave them in the slot deal.
We have had a horrible time with the slot swap, B6 may make some sense for DAL, but the synergies and product premium that B6 gets would make the deal a wash for DAL after the fight and slot loss that would ensue. Winning the terminal is imo DAL's goal. If you recall two years ago when the terminal upgrade was announced, I stated then, that this look like half of the plan. B6's terminal in JFK is what I would call the second half of the plan.
I hate to speculate to a certain level because I get accused of knowing something, but I really cannot see us acquiring anything more than assets from LCC. Maybe a few pilots and other personnel with the deal, but I cannot see us buying PHL. It would make sense for us to buy and shut down CLT, but that would be costly.
What I really see is AMR, and LCC along with B6. LCC's international assets would be sold, AMR's MIA hub would be paired down and maybe some sold off. Other those routes will moved to CLT where there would be better connecting traffic. MIA would still be a big player for AMR, but CLT would be the money maker. With this three way tie up, AMR/LCC would not need B6's JFK terminal and frankly that is what DAL needs.
Some signs of a shift to CLT is/are the slot authorities to SA we gave them in the slot deal.
We have had a horrible time with the slot swap, B6 may make some sense for DAL, but the synergies and product premium that B6 gets would make the deal a wash for DAL after the fight and slot loss that would ensue. Winning the terminal is imo DAL's goal. If you recall two years ago when the terminal upgrade was announced, I stated then, that this look like half of the plan. B6's terminal in JFK is what I would call the second half of the plan.
I could see us getting LCC A330s.
DAL + B6 seems unnecessarily complicated to me but I'm kind of confused. If the JFK upgrade to T2/T3/T4 was half the plan then was the plan to unseat them from T5/T6?
09-13-2011, 11:39 AM
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
I could see CLT being great for AMR. I think we then need to go back to DFW.
I could see us getting LCC A330s.
DAL + B6 seems unnecessarily complicated to me but I'm kind of confused. If the JFK upgrade to T2/T3/T4 was half the plan then was the plan to unseat them from T5/T6?
I could see us getting LCC A330s.
DAL + B6 seems unnecessarily complicated to me but I'm kind of confused. If the JFK upgrade to T2/T3/T4 was half the plan then was the plan to unseat them from T5/T6?
09-13-2011, 11:39 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
Well ... read Bastian's memo and the good news is a 9 to 11% operating margin. That's historically great and doing it in this economy is something to applaud.
Also good to note Roger and Doug were in attendance and recognized right off the bat.
Also good to note Roger and Doug were in attendance and recognized right off the bat.
Last edited by Bucking Bar; 09-13-2011 at 12:00 PM.
09-13-2011, 11:47 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Posts: 841
I could see CLT being great for AMR. I think we then need to go back to DFW.
I could see us getting LCC A330s.
DAL + B6 seems unnecessarily complicated to me but I'm kind of confused. If the JFK upgrade to T2/T3/T4 was half the plan then was the plan to unseat them from T5/T6?
I could see us getting LCC A330s.
DAL + B6 seems unnecessarily complicated to me but I'm kind of confused. If the JFK upgrade to T2/T3/T4 was half the plan then was the plan to unseat them from T5/T6?
09-13-2011, 11:50 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
Here is the webcast:CCBN - Lobby
Doing well despite possible post recession dip in US and Europe, high oil prices (up 22%) and disaster at our Asian hub. You’d expect us to be burning the furniture and raising cash at any price in this environment, the opposite is true.
June quarter notes:
Doing well despite possible post recession dip in US and Europe, high oil prices (up 22%) and disaster at our Asian hub. You’d expect us to be burning the furniture and raising cash at any price in this environment, the opposite is true.
June quarter notes:
- Revenue premium results in 636 million operating profit despite 1 Bn increase in fuel costs. Revenue has outpaced fuel price increase!
- Reduced to 13.8Bn debt
- 8 ½% return on invested capital
- Operating margin between 9 and 11% (2% better than forecast)
- Fuel coming in slightly lower than expected
- Strong bookings with yield improvement (12% to 15% increase in revenue)
- Capacity down 1% Y2Y (elsewhere stated as down 3%)
- Managing for high fuel prices
- Managing non fuel costs, must get costs back to 2010 costs
- Winter flying down 5% Y2Y, especially in markets where revenues do not cover fuel prices
- Flying 20% fewer seats in the winter than the summer
- Done making money in the summer and losing money in the winter
- Good at selling to business. Not as good at selling to customers. Working offerings like economy comfort which has been selling very well. Thinking about using the product domestically as well. Putting WiFi in RJ’s & Lie Flat seats. Very excited about the new JFK terminal which will be the core of “mainline.”
- Delta.com & Res sales is 50% of sales. Better if we can sell direct
- 10-12% down over the Atlantic. Decreasing everywhere but Latin America. Shrinking smaller hubs, especially Memphis.
- $450 million in hedge benefits on fuel cost increases
- Capacity reductions ARE causing non fuel costs to RISE.
- 737-900 15% to 20% reduction in fuel costs per seat and much lower maintenance costs compared to the 757. 757 flying will be reduced. Cash flow positive and accretive from a P&L basis. Thanked Boeing & Airbus for their work on the competition and look forward to talking to them in the “out years.”
- Very comfortable with fleet. Put to rest any thought that we are in the market for another aircraft order. Reason … watching Capital Expenditure. No orders in the next couple of years.
- Expect to get to 10 Bn debt level in 2013. That will save us $500,000,000 a year.
- Paying down debt before stock buy back
- NWA merger credited with business sales strength
- US Domestic is our main market with 50 to 60% of our business. Much of our international business is sold in the US. Emirates and Air Asia are not direct competitors, but they do pressure margins. We are investing in Aero Mexico and feel being partnered well allows us to compete.
- Part of our RASM growth was the excise tax suspension
- Very pleased to be an investor with a seat at the table with Aero Mexico. We can bring our skill sets into the emerging marketplace in Mexico and Brazil and we will benefit from lower labor costs. We are looking at other internal markets, especially in South America.
Last edited by Bucking Bar; 09-13-2011 at 12:59 PM.
09-13-2011, 12:40 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Position: C560XL/XLS/XLS+
Posts: 1,278
What about winning NYC! Cutting 11destinations across the Atlantic! Retreat, retreat, retreat, CAL/UAL will eat our lunch. Let's see, EDI, LYS, KBP, CPT, EZE, TXL, SNN, MAN, BUD, ARN, CPH, and seasonal ZRH, AGP, VLC, PSA. Oh, and don't forget AMM and CAI, which are both understandable due to unrest in the Mid-East. I also forgot Bucharest.
09-13-2011, 12:48 PM
Doesn't Get Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,598
The about face on the small narrowbody RFP leads me to beleive that we may be looking at a consolodation scenario where we end up with some small narrowbody airframes. LCC and B6 both have 190's so maybe there is something going on behind the scenes with that. That being said, the volume and bounce in stock prices today were due to the pullback in capacity plans for 2012 even though they don't anticipate a drop in demand. That and look at the operating margins for the summer even with high fuel prices....that is some good stuff there.
09-13-2011, 12:48 PM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,037
What about winning NYC! Cutting 11destinations across the Atlantic! Retreat, retreat, retreat, CAL/UAL will eat our lunch. Let's see, EDI, LYS, KBP, CPT, EZE, TXL, SNN, MAN, BUD, ARN, CPH, and seasonal ZRH, AGP, VLC, PSA. Oh, and don't forget AMM and CAI, which are both understandable due to unrest in the Mid-East. I also forgot Bucharest.
09-13-2011, 12:51 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: LAX ERA
Posts: 3,457
Would the government allow more consolidation?
I could see if LCC was split in two but if we acquired CLT/PHL Lord help us. We'd acquire LCC and shut down CLT and then one day PHL but we'd keep NYC! Which we already have anyways.
But none of this would happen before we get the seniority list together and then of course the LCC pilots would want DOH and then to vote out ALPA. Boy doesn't that just sound like fun!
Or we acquire the America West pilots, who want relative seniority. We get PHX, Ferd would be ecstatic.
So really the only real winners here is Ferd.
And when Ferd wins, we all win.
I could see if LCC was split in two but if we acquired CLT/PHL Lord help us. We'd acquire LCC and shut down CLT and then one day PHL but we'd keep NYC! Which we already have anyways.
But none of this would happen before we get the seniority list together and then of course the LCC pilots would want DOH and then to vote out ALPA. Boy doesn't that just sound like fun!
Or we acquire the America West pilots, who want relative seniority. We get PHX, Ferd would be ecstatic.
So really the only real winners here is Ferd.
And when Ferd wins, we all win.
)Ferd <-----winning by making stuff up, so I'm told
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