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Old 06-02-2011, 11:21 AM
  #67101  
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Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp
Friday, Friday, gettin' our AE on Friday?

PARTYING PARTYING YEAH! PARTYING PARTY... wait... AE or crotch shots from your local congressman or LEC rep?
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Old 06-02-2011, 11:27 AM
  #67102  
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Originally Posted by satchip
Hey FTB, edit my post to embed the video, please. I can't remember how.
Wilco.....

Originally Posted by satchip
The voluntary early out program window is open....

Come on you guys, take the early out! Real life awaits you! Golf for free at any our our signature courses!

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Old 06-02-2011, 11:37 AM
  #67103  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
I doubt there are many here who "don't want Delta to make money"
Let me see if I can paraphrase:
By having Alaska pilots fly the Delta code, Delta is able to be in markets it would otherwise be less or not profitable. As a result Delta is effectively offering more seatmiles without the associated overhead of flying it in-house.
The employees benefit because as the company is more profitable it is able to pay its employees more money.
Fast forward to 2025 (Hypothetical)
Delta is the largest airline in the world with the most seatmiles of any airline out there. Delta flies an all wide-body fleet, and has contracts with various lift providers around the world to feed the operation. There are 5000 pilots on the seniority list and for the last 18 years not one pilot was furloughed. Captains pay is between $275-300/hour and FO pay is between $205-230.
By comparison Southwest airlines, now also a global carrier, ranks number two to Delta in seat-miles. The two companies are equally profitable, but Southwest chose to grow organically after a disastrous merger with Airtran in 2011. Southwest flies a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies on all of it's own routes. Southwest has 12000 pilots on its seniority list. At Southwest Captains pay is between $240-295/hour and FO pay is between $190-225.
Considering the above scenario:
  1. Were we successful as a pilot group?
  2. Were we successful as a labor group?

Cheers
George
This is a great post in that it should invoke a lot of thought about the long term consequences of JVs and the use of regional jets because they make the company money and that's good for pilots. Something that should've been done in 1993 when the CRJ-200 was introduced if websites like this one had existed.

I seriously doubt, seriously, that in 10 years we have more pilots than we have today.

I don't ever see us growing much larger than we are now fleet wise. Just replacing and outsourcing.

As to Southwest, I don't see them getting much larger in their NB fleet. I could see more jets coming but eventually 717s, 735s and 733s replaced without many more 73N orders. After all to go into some markets that are weak to begin with and compete for business is something they, like us, won't do either.
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Old 06-02-2011, 11:47 AM
  #67104  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
I doubt there are many here who "don't want Delta to make money"
Let me see if I can paraphrase:
By having Alaska pilots fly the Delta code, Delta is able to be in markets it would otherwise be less or not profitable. As a result Delta is effectively offering more seatmiles without the associated overhead of flying it in-house.
The employees benefit because as the company is more profitable it is able to pay its employees more money.
Fast forward to 2025 (Hypothetical)
Delta is the largest airline in the world with the most seatmiles of any airline out there. Delta flies an all wide-body fleet, and has contracts with various lift providers around the world to feed the operation. There are 5000 pilots on the seniority list and for the last 18 years not one pilot was furloughed. Captains pay is between $275-300/hour and FO pay is between $205-230.
By comparison Southwest airlines, now also a global carrier, ranks number two to Delta in seat-miles. The two companies are equally profitable, but Southwest chose to grow organically after a disastrous merger with Airtran in 2011. Southwest flies a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies on all of it's own routes. Southwest has 12000 pilots on its seniority list. At Southwest Captains pay is between $240-295/hour and FO pay is between $190-225.
Considering the above scenario:
  1. Were we successful as a pilot group?
  2. Were we successful as a labor group?

Cheers
George
My crystal ball has a printer. It just sent:
Originally Posted by Aviation Week, June 2036
Delta Air Lines threatens strike

Master Chairman of the Delta pilots' union, New K Jr., was quoted today stating Delta pilots will clean out their lockers in preparation to a strike over pay and working condition disagreements following an inability to reach an agreement on Contract 2017.

The President of the Delta Airlines legacy division of SkyWest/Airfrance Partners, Holdings, Ltd., LLC responded "Delta has pilots? Who knew? For that matter, who cares?" referring to the unprecedented outsourcing which has diminished the union's relevance in labor issues. Since being acquired by SkyWest/AirFrance the Delta pilot force has suffered a number of setbacks, beginning with the refusal of SkyWest's Pilots Association to merge the Delta pilots and the Air Line Pilots' Association's position that Delta scope wasn't binding on a third party holding company structure.

The President of the Airline Pilot's Association was reached at a SkyWest pizza party. He offered no comment.

Delta currently operates 2 DC9's on the Atlanta to Minneapolis route on an essential air service subsidy. Jerry Atkin, III said "the DC9 is an anachronism, but we're just seeing how far we can take this thing." Delta passengers have all been re booked on code share partner, Southwest airlines.
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Old 06-02-2011, 11:54 AM
  #67105  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
My crystal ball has a printer. It just sent:
Nice post, and I share your concerns. Hence my desire for portable seniority.
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Old 06-02-2011, 12:11 PM
  #67106  
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Originally Posted by georgetg
I doubt there are many here who "don't want Delta to make money"
Let me see if I can paraphrase:
By having Alaska pilots fly the Delta code, Delta is able to be in markets it would otherwise be less or not profitable. As a result Delta is effectively offering more seatmiles without the associated overhead of flying it in-house.
The employees benefit because as the company is more profitable it is able to pay its employees more money.
Fast forward to 2025 (Hypothetical)
Delta is the largest airline in the world with the most seatmiles of any airline out there. Delta flies an all wide-body fleet, and has contracts with various lift providers around the world to feed the operation. There are 5000 pilots on the seniority list and for the last 18 years not one pilot was furloughed. Captains pay is between $275-300/hour and FO pay is between $205-230.
By comparison Southwest airlines, now also a global carrier, ranks number two to Delta in seat-miles. The two companies are equally profitable, but Southwest chose to grow organically after a disastrous merger with Airtran in 2011. Southwest flies a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies on all of it's own routes. Southwest has 12000 pilots on its seniority list. At Southwest Captains pay is between $240-295/hour and FO pay is between $190-225.
Considering the above scenario:
  1. Were we successful as a pilot group?
  2. Were we successful as a labor group?

Cheers
George
Delta's code share with Alaska is a pro rate code share, meaning each carrier only makes money when a passenger is on one of their airplanes. Delta does not want to have all their passengers fly on Alaska flights because they don't get any revenue from those passengers. They want to have a bigger footprint in the market so more of their routes are profitable by attracting high fare travelers. Without proper feed in Seattle we would be unable to fly all those Trans-Pac routes. So if we eliminated the code share with Alaska, you have to ask yourself what is more likely:

1. Alaska pulls out of Seattle and opens the market up to Delta
2. Delta finds the billions of dollars it would take to build up the infrastructure in Seattle and conduct a market share war with Alaska
3. Delta would abandon those Trans-Pac routes in Seattle

My guess is 3. 1 is almost impossible to imagine and 2 is a throwback to the old industry that led us all to bankruptcy. Oil has skyrocketed this year and the industry and Delta will be profitable and I will get a profit sharing check, again. The industry is in a new operating model and these alliances both domestic and international are key parts of this model. I don't want to go back to the old model, it sucked.

The key to these alliances is to make sure that we get our fair share of flying. Our code share with Alaska has a set of metrics that ensure that each side gets their share of the flying. The pro rate agreement gives incentive to management to fly as much code as possible on their own metal as that is the only way to produce revenue. The only aircraft Delta is adding right now is the MD-90, so the future as an all wide body smaller airline doesn't seem to fit your hypothetical. They also have an RFP for 100-200 narrow body aircraft.
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Old 06-02-2011, 01:12 PM
  #67107  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Delta's code share with Alaska is a pro rate code share, meaning each carrier only makes money when a passenger is on one of their airplanes. Delta does not want to have all their passengers fly on Alaska flights because they don't get any revenue from those passengers. They want to have a bigger footprint in the market so more of their routes are profitable by attracting high fare travelers. Without proper feed in Seattle we would be unable to fly all those Trans-Pac routes. So if we eliminated the code share with Alaska, you have to ask yourself what is more likely:

1. Alaska pulls out of Seattle and opens the market up to Delta
2. Delta finds the billions of dollars it would take to build up the infrastructure in Seattle and conduct a market share war with Alaska
3. Delta would abandon those Trans-Pac routes in Seattle

My guess is 3. 1 is almost impossible to imagine and 2 is a throwback to the old industry that led us all to bankruptcy. Oil has skyrocketed this year and the industry and Delta will be profitable and I will get a profit sharing check, again. The industry is in a new operating model and these alliances both domestic and international are key parts of this model. I don't want to go back to the old model, it sucked.

The key to these alliances is to make sure that we get our fair share of flying. Our code share with Alaska has a set of metrics that ensure that each side gets their share of the flying. The pro rate agreement gives incentive to management to fly as much code as possible on their own metal as that is the only way to produce revenue. The only aircraft Delta is adding right now is the MD-90, so the future as an all wide body smaller airline doesn't seem to fit your hypothetical. They also have an RFP for 100-200 narrow body aircraft.
What's to stop ALK from operating widebodies transpac from SEA? What if ALK decides to codeshare with another company?
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Old 06-02-2011, 01:23 PM
  #67108  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Delta's code share with Alaska is a pro rate code share, meaning each carrier only makes money when a passenger is on one of their airplanes. Delta does not want to have all their passengers fly on Alaska flights because they don't get any revenue from those passengers. They want to have a bigger footprint in the market so more of their routes are profitable by attracting high fare travelers. Without proper feed in Seattle we would be unable to fly all those Trans-Pac routes. So if we eliminated the code share with Alaska, you have to ask yourself what is more likely:

1. Alaska pulls out of Seattle and opens the market up to Delta
2. Delta finds the billions of dollars it would take to build up the infrastructure in Seattle and conduct a market share war with Alaska
3. Delta would abandon those Trans-Pac routes in Seattle

My guess is 3. 1 is almost impossible to imagine and 2 is a throwback to the old industry that led us all to bankruptcy. Oil has skyrocketed this year and the industry and Delta will be profitable and I will get a profit sharing check, again. The industry is in a new operating model and these alliances both domestic and international are key parts of this model. I don't want to go back to the old model, it sucked.

The key to these alliances is to make sure that we get our fair share of flying. Our code share with Alaska has a set of metrics that ensure that each side gets their share of the flying. The pro rate agreement gives incentive to management to fly as much code as possible on their own metal as that is the only way to produce revenue. The only aircraft Delta is adding right now is the MD-90, so the future as an all wide body smaller airline doesn't seem to fit your hypothetical. They also have an RFP for 100-200 narrow body aircraft.
Delta may not make money from having passengers on Alaska flights but does get the benefit of connecting passengers. Just like Delta hardly makes money flying RJs but having RJs feed bigger planes is beneficial to the system.

But Forget Alaska for a moment.
The question is about fundamental philosophies, not about any specific alliance.

What is our goal as a pilot group?
  • Does the last guy on the list remain at the end of the list?
  • Have we succeeded if no one is furloughed but we haven't grown?
  • Is a smaller pilot group with large contractual gains for few more desirable than a larger group with smaller gains for many?
  • Are we better off with a larger or smaller union representing pilot interests?
  • When other low-margin businesses try to increase profits do they shrink or grow, do they hire or outsource?

I'm asking what I think are questions we must address as a pilot group if we want to go forward and be successful long-term.

Cheers
George
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Old 06-02-2011, 01:25 PM
  #67109  
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
The ones I talked to in NRT seemed very warm to the idea of leaving. Same with a bunch of whale drivers. I know if I had a pension or part, and was over 60 I would be gone to live on the beach in my condo. Life is just too good to pass that up.
Thats funny, I would be totally surprised if it breaks 40. BTW, I notice you don't seem nearly as upbeat as a few months ago. what happened?
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Old 06-02-2011, 01:32 PM
  #67110  
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He will never answer that question. But just look at objective data:
  • Delta's pulling capacity
  • ALPA's making excuses for job protection provisions, even before we've committed an opener to paper
Perhaps I can goad him into answering.
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