Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
05-24-2011, 06:46 AM
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Sounds like the rumors of Slot Swap approval are a bit premature. Any bets on whether our gangster government will approve it this time or will we have to give the new terminal to SWA?
Delta Ups LaGuardia Push Amid N.Y. Competition - Bloomberg
Delta Ups LaGuardia Push Amid N.Y. Competition - Bloomberg
05-24-2011, 07:01 AM
Senior by choice
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 426
But the rest of the world is demanding more and more oil as the population continues to grow. Combine that with the fact that there is no new oil being discovered or drilled for (certainly not in the US) and you have a true supply/demand imbalance (versus simple speculation). Also throw in perpetual ME unrest.
05-24-2011, 07:15 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
There was a section in the last MEC meeting minutes on oil trading, in early 2011 1.5 BILLION barrels of oil were trading daily. Only 88 MILLION of those were physical trades, the rest were paper trades - presumably due to speculation. I wonder where the price would be if the speculation was all but terminated.
05-24-2011, 07:18 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
News Headlines
Would Oil Prices Really Fall If Speculation Was Reined In?
CNBC.com | May 04, 2011 | 02:02 PM EDT
If raising the margin requirement—or downpayment—on silver contracts helped cool speculation in the metal this week, could it do the same thing for runaway oil prices?
Silver has plunged 20 percent in recent days, in part due to the sharp increase in the amount of money investors are required to put down to buy the metal.
The whole commodity sector, in fact, is going through a major pullback this week as worries about a slowdown in the global economy are prompting investors to scale back on risky trades.
But while the selloff in silver, at least, is being linked partly to higher margins, oil prices move on more fundamental reasons such as supply and demand. Oil was lower on Wednesday, for instance, because of a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude supplies.
So raising margin requirements on oil—which has been tried before—wouldn't do much to bring prices lower.
“I don’t think it would be the same, just because of the amount of dollars chasing the silver trade,” says Justin Wiggs, vice president of trading at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore. “Because the amount of margin being used was so much higher and just given how hot the tape has been, you’ve got a lot more hedges playing and a lot more retail guys playing.”
As silver speculation rampaged and drove prices of the white metal to near $50 an ounce, exchanges took stern measures to rein in the trade.
The COMEX on Wednesday raised its margin requirements for the third day in a row—from $14,513 to $16,200 for initial margin and $10,750 to $12,000 for maintenance margin—which represents nearly a tripling in the cost since February.
The higher margin rules, as well as an unwinding in positions within high-volume exchange-traded funds, has driven silver to lows it hasn’t seen since early April.
Oil, meanwhile, has surged more than 25 percent since the mid-February uprising in Libya, pushing the cost of gasoline for most US consumers to $4 a gallon.
Both the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange tried hiking crude margins back in February when oil broke above $100. The move affected futures for a day or two, but the price trajectory quickly continued higher.
A similar hue and cry came in 2008 when oil reached its historic nominal high of $147 a barrel. Speculators were blamed then as well, with calls coming to require that only those taking physical delivery could buy oil contracts.
But a fast-moving recession and the collapse of the banking system quickly settled the argument, sending crude prices below $40 a barrel and dispersing calls for a crackdown on commodity speculation.
“Even though the root of metals pricing as well as oil pricing is dollar-denominated, I still like to associate metals separately from oil,” says Todd Schoenberger, managing director at LandColt Trading in Lewes, Del. “The only reason for that is oil is much more important to humans than any of the metals ever will be.”
In fact, Schoenberger thinks there’s little to prevent oil from continuing to surge.
“You can’t ignore supply and demand concerns. When we start talking about a global recovery, you can only think oil prices can continue to go higher,” he says. “There’s such a small margin between what humans use globally and what we pump out of the earth daily.”
Still, the whole commodity sector has been taking a beating that has largely coincided with the drop of silver.
Deep-pocketed investors like George Soros have ditched their positions in the metal, sending commodities lower even as the dollar keeps falling. Commodities usually rise on dollar weakness because they are priced in greenbacks and thus cheaper on the global markets when bought with more valuable currencies.
It seems for now, then, that only a momentum trade can push oil lower, with margin moves from the exchanges of little help.
_____________________________________
Questions? Comments? Email us at [email protected]
Would Oil Prices Really Fall If Speculation Was Reined In?
CNBC.com | May 04, 2011 | 02:02 PM EDT
If raising the margin requirement—or downpayment—on silver contracts helped cool speculation in the metal this week, could it do the same thing for runaway oil prices?
Silver has plunged 20 percent in recent days, in part due to the sharp increase in the amount of money investors are required to put down to buy the metal.
The whole commodity sector, in fact, is going through a major pullback this week as worries about a slowdown in the global economy are prompting investors to scale back on risky trades.
But while the selloff in silver, at least, is being linked partly to higher margins, oil prices move on more fundamental reasons such as supply and demand. Oil was lower on Wednesday, for instance, because of a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude supplies.
So raising margin requirements on oil—which has been tried before—wouldn't do much to bring prices lower.
“I don’t think it would be the same, just because of the amount of dollars chasing the silver trade,” says Justin Wiggs, vice president of trading at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore. “Because the amount of margin being used was so much higher and just given how hot the tape has been, you’ve got a lot more hedges playing and a lot more retail guys playing.”
As silver speculation rampaged and drove prices of the white metal to near $50 an ounce, exchanges took stern measures to rein in the trade.
The COMEX on Wednesday raised its margin requirements for the third day in a row—from $14,513 to $16,200 for initial margin and $10,750 to $12,000 for maintenance margin—which represents nearly a tripling in the cost since February.
The higher margin rules, as well as an unwinding in positions within high-volume exchange-traded funds, has driven silver to lows it hasn’t seen since early April.
Oil, meanwhile, has surged more than 25 percent since the mid-February uprising in Libya, pushing the cost of gasoline for most US consumers to $4 a gallon.
Both the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange tried hiking crude margins back in February when oil broke above $100. The move affected futures for a day or two, but the price trajectory quickly continued higher.
A similar hue and cry came in 2008 when oil reached its historic nominal high of $147 a barrel. Speculators were blamed then as well, with calls coming to require that only those taking physical delivery could buy oil contracts.
But a fast-moving recession and the collapse of the banking system quickly settled the argument, sending crude prices below $40 a barrel and dispersing calls for a crackdown on commodity speculation.
“Even though the root of metals pricing as well as oil pricing is dollar-denominated, I still like to associate metals separately from oil,” says Todd Schoenberger, managing director at LandColt Trading in Lewes, Del. “The only reason for that is oil is much more important to humans than any of the metals ever will be.”
In fact, Schoenberger thinks there’s little to prevent oil from continuing to surge.
“You can’t ignore supply and demand concerns. When we start talking about a global recovery, you can only think oil prices can continue to go higher,” he says. “There’s such a small margin between what humans use globally and what we pump out of the earth daily.”
Still, the whole commodity sector has been taking a beating that has largely coincided with the drop of silver.
Deep-pocketed investors like George Soros have ditched their positions in the metal, sending commodities lower even as the dollar keeps falling. Commodities usually rise on dollar weakness because they are priced in greenbacks and thus cheaper on the global markets when bought with more valuable currencies.
It seems for now, then, that only a momentum trade can push oil lower, with margin moves from the exchanges of little help.
_____________________________________
Questions? Comments? Email us at [email protected]
05-24-2011, 07:24 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: Flying the SEC
Posts: 2,350
Yes it has but not by whom you think. The enviro lobby and now our government artificially keeps the price of oil high so as to justify their throwing money down the rat hole of "green energy". The free nations of the world with proven oil reserves are being stymied and hamstrung from bringing that oil to market. The less than free countries of the world are under no such restraints.
Which bring us to Brazil. A "free" country is developing a huge oil reserve off shore. Funded and subsidized by the US Taxpayer. Did you know that George Soros has a huge investment in Petrobras? Things that make you go hmmmm.
U.S. Loan to Brazilian Oil Company Riles Conservatives in Favor of Offshore Drilling - FoxNews.com
Which bring us to Brazil. A "free" country is developing a huge oil reserve off shore. Funded and subsidized by the US Taxpayer. Did you know that George Soros has a huge investment in Petrobras? Things that make you go hmmmm.
U.S. Loan to Brazilian Oil Company Riles Conservatives in Favor of Offshore Drilling - FoxNews.com
05-24-2011, 07:42 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
Agreed, Sat. Assuming it is speculation which drives prices higher and you are able to curb trading in the US. Most traders would trade in other world markets. Heck, Goldman makes most of its Money overseas anyway.
As far as green subsidies to corporate America, it's a scam. The govt gives billions to GE for its green energy products. What percentage of energy demand can be supplied by a bunch of windmills?
As far as green subsidies to corporate America, it's a scam. The govt gives billions to GE for its green energy products. What percentage of energy demand can be supplied by a bunch of windmills?
05-24-2011, 07:49 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,028
Agreed, Sat. Assuming it is speculation which drives prices higher and you are able to curb trading in the US. Most traders would trade in other world markets. Heck, Goldman makes most of its Money overseas anyway.
As far as green subsidies to corporate America, it's a scam. The govt gives billions to GE for its green energy products. What percentage of energy demand can be supplied by a bunch of windmills?
As far as green subsidies to corporate America, it's a scam. The govt gives billions to GE for its green energy products. What percentage of energy demand can be supplied by a bunch of windmills?
http://www.oregonlive.com/environmen...stratio_2.html
We NEED a better power grid & infrastructure (which Enron famously figured out by taking even a small bit of it off line the resulting collapse allowed them to sell power at emergency rates).
In other odd news, Bonneville Power can't just spill the water over the dams because the resulting oxygen level changes negatively effect the creatures that live in the river.
Meanwhile, Atlanta's starting the August smog in May. Wouldn't bother me to see something replace some of our coal plants around the State of Georgia.
Anyone got any good AE rumors. If this going to be an advancement, or displacement, bid?
05-24-2011, 07:57 AM
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,028
Where Oil Speculation came from:
Up until a few years ago, oil speculation wasn't really a problem: Crude oil futures could only be bought and sold on the NYMEX, where they were regulated by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC), a government organization that was created in 1974 to -- you guessed it -- protect the market against speculators. For decades, the CFTC did its job well, watching over sales of oil futures and ensuring that investors didn't drive up prices to make a profit at the expense of consumers. But in 2000, everything changed.
That year, two events effectively crippled the CFTC. The first was the passage of a provision of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act -- sometimes called the Enron loophole -- that made it legal for companies to trade oil futures outside of the NYMEX in what are called over-the-counter (OTC) trades. The same year, the London-based Intercontinental Exchange made it possible for investors to buy and sell European oil futures, and offered a platform for OTC trading. In addition to driving up the global price of oil, futures trading on the ICE began to have a direct impact on U.S. gas prices in 2006, when the ICE gained the right to list U.S. oil futures. Since the CFTC could only regulate trades on the NYMEX, those events made it possible for speculators to escape oversight.
While it's difficult to prove whether or not speculators are directly responsible for high gas prices, most analysts agree that some portion of the current high cost of gas is attributable to the buying and selling of oil futures. After the sharp rise and steep fall oil prices took in 2007 and 2008, investigators found that 81% of gas contracts on the NYMEX had been held by speculators. In fact, 11% were held by a single company, Vitol. With that kind of pull, anti-speculation analysts argue, there's no question that oil traders can manipulate oil prices.
That year, two events effectively crippled the CFTC. The first was the passage of a provision of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act -- sometimes called the Enron loophole -- that made it legal for companies to trade oil futures outside of the NYMEX in what are called over-the-counter (OTC) trades. The same year, the London-based Intercontinental Exchange made it possible for investors to buy and sell European oil futures, and offered a platform for OTC trading. In addition to driving up the global price of oil, futures trading on the ICE began to have a direct impact on U.S. gas prices in 2006, when the ICE gained the right to list U.S. oil futures. Since the CFTC could only regulate trades on the NYMEX, those events made it possible for speculators to escape oversight.
While it's difficult to prove whether or not speculators are directly responsible for high gas prices, most analysts agree that some portion of the current high cost of gas is attributable to the buying and selling of oil futures. After the sharp rise and steep fall oil prices took in 2007 and 2008, investigators found that 81% of gas contracts on the NYMEX had been held by speculators. In fact, 11% were held by a single company, Vitol. With that kind of pull, anti-speculation analysts argue, there's no question that oil traders can manipulate oil prices.
05-24-2011, 07:58 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: 757/767
Posts: 193
But the rest of the world is demanding more and more oil as the population continues to grow. Combine that with the fact that there is no new oil being discovered or drilled for (certainly not in the US) and you have a true supply/demand imbalance (versus simple speculation). Also throw in perpetual ME unrest.
05-24-2011, 08:04 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
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