TANSTAAFL

Really? Please tell us what you think happened and then I'll tell you what really happened

Bucking Bar

Just read it as reported in ALPA's magazine.* Feel free to share your insights, as well as strategies

Also, can you explain how the Compass divestiture was a "win" for our representational relevance, building bridges, controlling outsourcing, contract restoration, etc ... Really, truly, humbly, I'm asking.

* (reading between the lines Comair asked for a life jacket and we told them to go find their own, but that's just a guess. Got no opinion on that. But, that's what I think, the floor is yours! )

gloopy

The airplanes we need going forward will cost Alaska or SkyWest/Republic/whoever just as much as they will cost DL mainline. Every penny. And I don't buy that MBA fantasy land accounting trick of "well if they operate it for us we don't have the debt" nonsense. If a C-Series flies in Delta colors, Delta will pay 100% of its cost including 100% of the cost of the debt and debt servicing. The only difference is employee costs and that when amortized into the overall cost is absolutely peanuts.

As for the XX Billion to replace such and such fleet, or the XXX Billion to replace almost everything, yeah I suppose if we replace an entire fleet in a day and pay cash then it would cost that much. Airlines have to buy planes and yes sometimes on a large scale. That is nothing new, it has happened too many times to count.

If we can't afford, and/or the debt is too much for us to get however many 787s, A320 NEOs, C-Series, 797s or whatever else we need then there is no way an outsourced provider will be able to afford them or the debt the come with either based on deals inked with us as their primary or exclusive means of paying for them in the first place.

If we give away more scope, of course whatever we give away will be outsourced. But that will be because of management's desire to leverage their bonuses on the backs of cheap SJS labor. But there is no way someone else can afford to get those very same planes, and fly them for us, if we can't afford to do it ourselves in the first place.

As for C12K, regardless of how that ends up, we will begin the discussion in a significantly better debt/credit situation either way.

TANSTAAFL

OK, I thought you were referring to the report of the Career Security Protocol Committee which covered the NSL discussion/debate...

Bucking Bar

Not to engage in thread creep, but I'm curious if UAL's take on a NSL has changed with the better chances of success as a result of their merger?

IMHO, a NSL it's a terrible idea, but parts of the platform are useful. Particularly if focused within the brand, or system. One hole in our scope is that we allow one part of "Delta" to hire while another part furloughs. A bridge that preserves seniority and longevity would be best built on the foundation of a common list.

I would also like to see ALPA require that outsourcing agreements be flown by ALPA members. Phase them in with contract expiration, so Republic and SkyWest have a couple years to organize. Then our MEC Chair, I mean, National's President has ratification authority on their contract. Start building the economic foundation under us.

Those are the kinds of ideas that I mean when I state "play defensively." That way, during a downturn pilots keep their Delta jobs and the company has less opportunity to restructure to the trendy flavor of the day.

Bucking Bar

Not really. Several factors come into play:

• SkyWest in particular has a very good looking balance sheet. They can obtain financing cheaper than anyone. Within the blood bath that is DCI bidding, SkyWest even uses this advantage to beat rivals for RJ flying while paying their pilots significantly more (and treating them better) than say, Mesa.
• Offshore carriers (if permitted) have subsidies and financing arrangements that make their jets significantly cheaper. Google, "Emirates, import export bank" I bet France (the government) gives Air France (owned by, guess who) quite a deal on Airbus (French jobs program, keeps the peasants from burning the place down)
• Not all costs are just pay rates. Longevity enters into the picture. Part of the reason for the constant shuffle among DCI partners is the destruction of pilot longevity to reduce costs. In my category the top FO earns 211% of what the new hire does. Second year that drops to 137%, but is really more due to vacation and other bene's.
• Delta has outsourced somewhere in the neighborhood of $28,000,000,000 to DCI going forward. Sure, that is enough to buy their jets. But Delta enjoys greater flexibility than if it had committed for these jets directly. If I recall, Republic actually (was dumb enough to) sign some three year deals on surplus jets coming off the US Air outsourcing disaster.
• In a game where a 5% margin is success or death, marginal differences make or break the airline. This debate started with me pointing out ALL of our profits this year could be summed up in two words, bag fees.

Jack Bauer

Virgin Atlantic Gets a `Number' of Queries About Deals - Bloomberg

sailingfun

Bucking, are 757's only see about 1000 cycles a year. Based on 50,000 cycles they have a lot of life left in them. I am leaving for vacation but some of your numbers are off. The cost to operate a 737-800 as a example was 30 percent less then a 757 for Delta just 2 years ago on a per flight basis with only 23 fewer seats.
I think your trying to make a point that there will be a giant scope battle on the next contract. I think scope will turn out to be a non event on the next contract. Management will not even push for increases. The big battle in scope will be can we take backthe 76 seat flying and will it make sense for total jobs at the mainline to do that. Management may open for 100 seats on scope but they will throw it out early.

scambo1

Sailing;

Did you forget to log off?

scambo1

Bar;

As much as I'd like to, I cant really punch any big holes into what you are saying. Your logic seems sound enough.

One comment, since we are really just heavy equipment operators: The standard cost scale for a piece of heavy equipment like a backhoe or track loader is 1/1000 of the purchase price plus the cost of the operator - per hour, typically with a 4 hour minimum. for a $100,000 trackhoe, that's ($100+$35)x4 (minimum). Airline managements wettest dream would be to have a ROI like that.