johnso29

Liz Ann Sonders: 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'


The U.S. economy is experiencing "a slowdown, not a meltdown" and won't suffer a ‘double-dip' recession, according to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The negatives facing the economy are well known, including high unemployment, housing rolling over, China slowing, Europe imploding, uncertainty over U.S. policy and higher taxes in 2011, runaway government deficits worldwide and the end of global stimulus.

Sonders doesn't dismiss these (and other) factors and admits "the end of the ‘V'-part [of the recovery] happened a little more abruptly than we'd anticipated."

But in a report this week on Schwab's Web site she lists a number of positive trends that aren't getting enough attention and suggest GDP will remain in positive territory, even if growth is muted:

-- Leading economic indicators from the OECD and Conference Board show little or no risk of near-term recession. (And while the ECRI's weekly leading index has tumbled in recent weeks, it hasn't triggered a recession yet, ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan said during a recent appearance on Tech Ticker.)
-- Ned Davis Research's "recession probability model" remains near 0%, and the firm's "financial stimulus index" also indicates little risk of recession this year; in fact, NDR's latter index is at levels consistent with solid economic growth.
-- Unemployment claims have likely resumed their decline. (Even at their current level they suggest 2.5% real GDP in the third quarter.)
-- The Business Roundtable CEO survey of employment plans is at its highest reading since 2006.
-- Corporate profits are booming and corporate cash is at a record $1.8 trillion.
-- The rate of contraction of bank lending to commercial and industrial companies is slowing noticeably.
-- Durable good orders, though down in May, are in a strong rising trend and up nearly 20% from their recession low.
-- Economic readings in emerging economies remain very healthy.
-- The Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future and could reinstate quantitative easing were the recovery to falter further.
Of course, the bears can cite a litany of other metrics to make their case for a double dip (or worse). Still, it's worth noting that Sonders called the start of the recession in late 2007 and its end in June 2009; both calls went against the grain of prevailing conventional wisdom at the time and (surprise surprise), both proved prescient.

If Vinny Catalano is right about the dire consequence of another downturn, here's hoping Sonders is right again.*

Bucking Bar

My personal experience as a passenger with several f-NWA cabin crews and pilots was very positive. ... all I saw was good folks working hard. ...

acl65pilot

Agreed and they always keep on us about the cabin temp!

LandGreen2

hey guys/gals...between the fnwa, fdal, and maybe some alk pilots trolling this thread...there has got to be some of you that have gouge on a "affordable" way to fish salmon in alaska?? gotta try and fill the freezer for the cold months ahead!! thanks!!

johnso29

Yes they do! Especially the older ones. They for some reason like it very cold.

80ktsClamp

Same here. The gate agents tend to be the only ones that are very distinguishable, and that is slowly correcting itself.

80ktsClamp

Lovely accent you've got there... New Jersey?

"Austria"

Well then! G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!

"Let's not."

alfaromeo

Ditto. The only problem I see is the condition of the cabins. They are a little scruffy looking. The old cloth seats look straight from the eighties. Delta has been aggressive about keeping the planes looking better in the last few years, so I think this situation will improve.

scambo1

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Land Green;

I used to use the irish lord charter in ninilchik -for halibut - he would always hook me up last minute with the salmon guides - kings and silvers. Also, I would use one of 2 nice cabins available there too (no address, it was turn right at mile marker X). I do not have their info, but the irish lord would. If you are going with a group, these are way more affordable than hotels.

The toughest part was mini-van availability from the car rental places in anchorage. Its been a while since I've gone, but halibut and salmon in the freezer is great. One more thing, the anc airport has a deep freeze for you to put your fish in until you fly out.

Please share with me any other -better- tips. When my son is old enough, I plan to redo the annual pilgrimage.

From memory, a week of doing 4-5 sportsman events, lodging, food, car etc. was about $1500/week/person.

scambo1

Any one want to take an educated guess as to where DAL is heading during earnings week?

Actual stock price. My guess $15