tsquare

Good question. I would say the biggest factor is the economy. If people are flying a lot... and ticket prices are going up.. NOT because of fuel prices, then maybe we have a shot at meaningful contract gains. I refuse to use the word restoration because I frankly think an unachievable bar is set with that term. I still wager that in the 15 years I have remaining, I will never see the straight dollar amount in the seat I now occupy... nevermind tha adjustment for inflation. Captin C might call me a whipped pup, and that is his opinion, but I have seen enough now in this industry to know how this will all go down. IF the economy is churning.. management will drag it's feet until a more suitable time to extract concessions or at worst, limit gains. they have the backing of the RLA and the federal government that views us as a public utility and therefore will not allow any strike to occur. That's a fact. The moustache in Va, won't change that.

The second part is a big concern too, and I think you are right. I am afriad that some of the details will bite us in the end... I hope Heiko and Scrappy are on the ball.

DAL 88 Driver

I think (well, I'm going to assume anyway) that you're misunderstanding me. I am not saying that a 777 Captain is suddenly dangerous because he's not being paid enough. I am saying that making our profession worth HALF of what it has traditionally been worth will result (probably is already resulting) in lower quality, less capable individuals getting into the profession. The implications for safety with that seem obvious to me. And I think those implications are obvious to most people who think about it objectively. (The news media sure seemed to "get it" for a while as they reported on the Colgan accident.) It hasn't trickled up to the level of a Delta Air Lines yet. But, if not corrected, it ultimately will become a safety issue throughout the industry at some point as we all have to retire and are eventually replaced by lower quality pilots.

As for ticket prices... You really think that the difference between our current compensation and C2K+inflation would result in a doubling of ticket prices? How much of a typical ticket price do you think is driven by pilot costs?

Gnewt

Hey Ferd,

Your version of the story is urban legend. It was two different guys. The crew meal eater also had a moose destroy the inside of his house in ANC. Further he is the same individual who was banned by several captains from ever drinking Mountain Dew in the cockpit. Happily he is now a 757 capt. Several of his FOs have also banned him from drinking the aforementioned Mt Dew.

The curtain laundry fellow was finally "caught." He had a long history of infractions. As penance he will forever be known as "Hop Sing."

Gnewt

acl65pilot

MD88driver;
You are correct, LUV did not cut rates. It is not set in stone, but CAL, AMR, UAL and DAL all look at each other to see what the other execs are doing or willing to do.

I want C2K+30. We all do. That is not the point. I want to get as close as we can to what we are all demanding. That is a no brainer.

What I am stating is reality. Not what a balance sheet states, not what a CEO or a VP of HR states. I am simply stating that how far our management team is "willing" to go will depend on where the other airlines are, and also when their CBA's are due. Both of those come in to play.

We got C2K because UAUA got their and so on. If CAL and AMR sign a deals shortly before ours, they will have thee plus years at those costs before they are even amendable. That means we stand strong for three years, or take a "patterned" gain on or near the amendable date, with a three years amendable date so that we are all due at the same time. We take a four year duration and hope to pattern up again. It depends on your input to your reps.

The biggest gains have been in a patterned approach. Normally they are more sustainable.

Our team in management is paying off debt. Great, that means less to the banks and more to my bank. It means we are that much less over the barrel when it comes to debt service. It also means that you may get a PWA that costs more than CAL or AMR. In that regard you are dead on. A lot needs to happen both with our financial position and other airlines financial and contractual positions for us to make the "offer."

AMR has a big apple to bite. Not APA but AMR. Their is a precarious position. I want to see significant gains there. Why? It will be that much easier for us. I believe that by 2012 we will see a surviving CAL PWA, a DAL PWA, and a AMR PWA. It will be those three that will set the costs for the legacy carriers. Players that we can leverage are Jet Blue, Luv and AS, but the footprint is very different.


Do not get me and I assume PG wrong. We want what you want, but there are ways to skin the cat. A quick agreement with a shorter duration may set us up well for 2015. I am not saying lie down and give up. I am stating watch the market, our financial position, the industries position, government regulation, cap and trade, ect. It all comes it to play. We are no more than a line item cost.
We want to get paid the absolute maximum we can and on the other side of the table they want the opposite. Duh!

Pineapple Guy

I know exactly what you're saying. And while I'd like to believe you, I don't. Public sympathy for Colgan pilots making $16k/year is just not going to transfer to DAL pilots making $200k. The lowest DAL captain makes $151/hr. So you tell me the public is going to feel sorry for us when DAL publishes that the "average DAL Captain" makes $175k/year? I wish it were so.

Denny Crane

DOH!!!!!!!!!

Denny

acl65pilot

No it is not the bump in prices that is huge. It is the fact that a three dollar per ticket bump hits the absolute elasticity of the demand curve. If we could raise ticket prices we would. When we try and rescind them, it is because keeping them there cuts the demand too much. It is very tough with internet booking not to have ticket prices pattern up as well.

Grumble

Almost to 3 mil views. Just doing my part to get it there...

DAL 88 Driver

Your reply doesn't indicate that you know what I'm saying. Do you not believe that making this career worth HALF of what it traditionally has been worth has an effect on the quality of people entering the profession? Do you not believe that quality pilots are critical to safety? It has nothing to do with how much the "average DAL Captain" makes right now. It has everything to do with the value of this profession and its ability to attract quality individuals.

"You get what you pay for." It's a tried and true, common sense saying that ultimately applies to pilots just like everything else. I don't believe it is a hard case to make at all, if presented properly.

Pineapple Guy

I mistyped in my previous post. That's been fixed. But the point remains that if increasing ticket prices by $5 was so easy, why don't you think any airline has done that? If that's all it took to make money rather than lose money, I suspect SOMEONE would have thought of that by now.