Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
04-22-2010, 08:28 AM
Inventory survival kit ..
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: Seeking no jacket required rotations
Posts: 1,069
On the subject of Q1 results. I'm sure Alfa or Slowplay might cast this in its' proper light, with the right names for the right metrics...
I tried to evaluate the size of the losses at DAL vs. those at CAL and AMR, in relation to their size. I used revenue as a measure of size. The terms used to describe the revenue was slightly different in each case, but I think I got total operating revenue for each, and losses excluding special items for each.
AMR: 505 million loss on 5,100 million in revenue = .099
CAL: 146 million loss on 3,200 million in revenue = .046
DAL: 256 million loss on 6,850 million in revenue = .037
The trend for DAL was for a narrower loss vs. the year prior, and wider for the other two.
It seems to me we're starting to get traction. I would not be surprised if CAL/UAL will want to "go there" as well. I think their combination would potentially lead the industry, along with STAR, and would potentially command a revenue premium vs. DAL, based on what I perceive as a better network. OTOH, I think DAL potentially will retain an operating cost advantage, and so margins could be good for both. I think we got a good running start, and I think the obsession with balance sheet repair is the key to staying ahead of CAL/UAL. I think this is a race to better debt service payments, which will in turn allow for further investment in the product. It'll be interesting (along the lines of the Chinese curse) to watch.
So I'm not fearful of further consolidation.
I tried to evaluate the size of the losses at DAL vs. those at CAL and AMR, in relation to their size. I used revenue as a measure of size. The terms used to describe the revenue was slightly different in each case, but I think I got total operating revenue for each, and losses excluding special items for each.
AMR: 505 million loss on 5,100 million in revenue = .099
CAL: 146 million loss on 3,200 million in revenue = .046
DAL: 256 million loss on 6,850 million in revenue = .037
The trend for DAL was for a narrower loss vs. the year prior, and wider for the other two.
It seems to me we're starting to get traction. I would not be surprised if CAL/UAL will want to "go there" as well. I think their combination would potentially lead the industry, along with STAR, and would potentially command a revenue premium vs. DAL, based on what I perceive as a better network. OTOH, I think DAL potentially will retain an operating cost advantage, and so margins could be good for both. I think we got a good running start, and I think the obsession with balance sheet repair is the key to staying ahead of CAL/UAL. I think this is a race to better debt service payments, which will in turn allow for further investment in the product. It'll be interesting (along the lines of the Chinese curse) to watch.
So I'm not fearful of further consolidation.
It's a three part curse:
May you live in interesting times.
May you come to the attention of those in authority
May you find what you are looking for
04-22-2010, 08:29 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2007
Posts: 593
Here is another thought that I have been pondering and I am curious to see what the group thinks: (That is a warning) 
I have been thinking about a few things in regard to our DCI flying. These FFD or Cost Plus contracts are a big money loser for DAL. We have a limit of 255 on 70/76 seat jets. DAL wants to modify these contracts.
So;
Lets say DAL management came to D-ALPA with a proposal to allow a certain number of 76 seat jets. That number could be anything up to the 255 allowable number now. I will not pick a specific number, just up to that number. In return they will cap DCI at 300-400 total aircraft. It is a hard number and cuts DCI in half for allowing at a max 102 more 76 seat jets.
What are your thoughts on this. It is a victory to control scope as well as a concession to allow more 76 seat jets. What do you think of it? My gut is telling me that something like this may be the next paper across the table.
I have been thinking about a few things in regard to our DCI flying. These FFD or Cost Plus contracts are a big money loser for DAL. We have a limit of 255 on 70/76 seat jets. DAL wants to modify these contracts.
So;
Lets say DAL management came to D-ALPA with a proposal to allow a certain number of 76 seat jets. That number could be anything up to the 255 allowable number now. I will not pick a specific number, just up to that number. In return they will cap DCI at 300-400 total aircraft. It is a hard number and cuts DCI in half for allowing at a max 102 more 76 seat jets.
What are your thoughts on this. It is a victory to control scope as well as a concession to allow more 76 seat jets. What do you think of it? My gut is telling me that something like this may be the next paper across the table.
If Delta needs more 76 seat jets they can fly as many as they want with Delta pilots.
04-22-2010, 08:29 AM
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
I can't listen to Zep anymore after doing shots in HS and barfing to Black Dog.
04-22-2010, 08:29 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: DAL FO
Posts: 2,169
I think I saw an email in the last few months saying that this would take place around July or so.
04-22-2010, 08:33 AM
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
I'm not a big fan of any news service.. but by your statement you must think CNN or CBS or ABC...... have more validity than FOX... I think the truth/reality lies somewhere between the propaganda any of these so-called "news" services spew... and that is truly sad. Edward Murrow must be rolling in his grave.
04-22-2010, 08:34 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: 7ERB
Posts: 2,039
04-22-2010, 08:35 AM
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
What? The APU on the maddog doesn't auto shutdown in case of a fire??
04-22-2010, 08:37 AM
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
How about SE taxi? Are the baby busses doing that? I have ridden in the back several times, and although I cannot swear to it, I do not THINK I ever saw a SE taxi, either in or out.. Any of you bus guys care to comment?
04-22-2010, 08:37 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
I'm not a big fan of any news service.. but by your statement you must think CNN or CBS or ABC...... have more validity than FOX... I think the truth/reality lies somewhere between the propaganda any of these so-called "news" services spew... and that is truly sad. Edward Murrow must be rolling in his grave.
Then let me rephrase my statement to better reflect my feelings....All news networks in the USA SUCK!!!!
04-22-2010, 08:39 AM
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
I'm working on my CA's, but a lot seem to not even think about it.
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